Major SEC Program Named Dark Horse to Win the College Football Playoff

The Oklahoma Sooners might be back to being a team that can truly compete for a national title after experiencing some shaky years under Brent Venables.

Venables took over before the 2021 season when Lincoln Riley elected to pack his bags and head out to Los Angeles, leaving a fan base stunned. In his first year at the helm, Venables led Oklahoma to a 6-7 season, which was the first losing season since 1998.

However, the Sooners bounced back with a 10-3 year, giving them a ton of momentum as they entered their first year in the SEC. But that was a disaster as the Sooners again went 6-7 and put Venables on the hot seat heading into 2025.

But 2025 was a major success. Venables went back to calling the defense, which he’s proven to be one of the best defensive minds in football, helping lead Oklahoma to a national championship in 2000 and Clemson to national championships in 2016 and 2018.

With his leadership, Oklahoma went 10-3 and returned to the College Football Playoff for the first time since 2019.

Now, the Sooners head into the 2026 season with a lot of expectations. So much so that even On3’s J.D. PicKell thinks Oklahoma could be a dark horse national championship team this season.

“I feel like the conversation around Oklahoma is getting a little bit slippery in terms of everyone just forgetting what they were last year and how they found a way to get it done in the month of November,” PicKell said. “…I think Oklahoma’s a top 10 team in college football.”

There is a lot to love about Oklahoma. The Sooners rank No. 16 in returning production in college football. That includes star quarterback John Mateer.

Mateer had a great start to last season, throwing for 1,215 yards, six touchdowns, and three interceptions while also rushing for 190 yards and five touchdowns, leading Oklahoma to a 4-0 record and making him the front-runner for the Heisman Trophy.

However, he broke the thumb on his throwing hand during the fourth game against the Auburn Tigers. This injury caused him to miss one game, and after his return, he was never able to play at the same level.

In his final eight games of the season, he passed for 1,670 yards, eight touchdowns and eight interceptions, while rushing for 241 yards and three touchdowns. If he can return to his pre-injury form, Oklahoma could be a legit threat.

The Sooners also will likely have a strong defense again. They return defensive linemen David Stone, Jayden Jackson and Taylor Wein, while also returning star linebackers Owen Heinecke and Kip Lewis. In the secondary, they return three out of four starters in Eli Bowen, Peyton Bowen and Courtland Guillory. Not to mention, Venables is still calling the plays.

2026 could be a defining year for the Sooners. While 2025 was a step in the right direction, 2026 could show everyone that what once seemed like dark times when Riley left were just minor blips on the way back to greatness.