Bitcoins
Bitcoin has pushed above the $95,000 level for the first time since mid-November, reigniting debate across the market. For some analysts, this move represents a constructive breakout that confirms underlying strength after weeks of consolidation. For others, the rally is viewed with caution, framed as a classic relief move occurring within a broader corrective or bearish structure. With sentiment split and volatility compressed, the market is once again searching for confirmation rather than direction alone.
Adding an important layer to this discussion, an analysis by Darkfost highlights a notable shift beneath the surface: OG Bitcoin activity has dropped sharply. OGs—holders whose coins have remained dormant for several years—have historically played a key role during major cycle transitions, often distributing aggressively near macro tops. During this cycle, their activity surged earlier, coinciding with strong institutional demand and elevated prices. However, recent data shows that this selling pressure has slowed significantly.
This decline in OG spending suggests that long-dormant holders are no longer actively distributing into strength, reducing a major source of structural sell pressure. While this does not guarantee immediate upside continuation, it changes the risk profile of the current move. With fewer legacy holders selling, price action above $95K is now being shaped more by marginal demand and derivatives positioning than by long-term distribution, making the next phase especially critical to monitor.
OG Selling Pressure Fades as Long-Dormant Coins Go Quiet
Darkfost’s analysis uses UTXO behavior to understand how long-term holders are acting beneath the surface. UTXOs, which track when and how previously unspent Bitcoin is moved, provide a reliable way to identify activity from OG holders—coins that have remained dormant for several years. When these coins move, it usually signals intentional distribution rather than short-term speculation.
Earlier in this cycle, OG activity was unusually elevated. Long-held coins were spent at levels well above those seen in the previous cycle, coinciding with a favorable environment for distribution. Institutional inflows, spot ETFs, and even government-linked demand created deep liquidity conditions that allowed legacy holders to sell without destabilizing the price. That window appears to be closing.
Recent data shows a clear shift. Spikes in OG spending during local price peaks have become smaller and less frequent. The rolling average of spent older outputs has fallen materially from prior highs, indicating that the heaviest phase of long-term distribution is likely behind us. This does not imply that OGs have turned aggressively bullish, but it does suggest reduced urgency to sell.
From a market structure perspective, declining OG selling pressure removes a major overhead supply source. With fewer long-dormant coins entering circulation, price action becomes increasingly dependent on short-term demand dynamics and derivatives positioning. This transition often precedes either consolidation or trend continuation, making OG inactivity a quietly constructive signal rather than an outright bullish trigger.
Bitcoin Tests Key Resistance After Short-Term Breakout
Bitcoin has pushed back above the $95,000 level after weeks of consolidation, marking a notable short-term breakout. On this daily chart, price has reclaimed the descending short-term moving average and is now testing a former resistance zone that previously acted as support during September and October. This area around $95K–$96K is technically significant, as it coincides with prior range lows and a visible supply cluster.
The rebound follows a sharp corrective phase in November, where BTC printed a local bottom near the mid-$80,000 region. Since then, price action has formed a series of higher lows, suggesting an improving short-term structure. Volume remains moderate, indicating that this move is not driven by aggressive speculation, but rather by steady spot demand and short covering.
However, Bitcoin still trades below its longer-term moving averages, which continue to slope downward. This implies that, despite the recent strength, the broader trend has not yet fully flipped bullish. A sustained hold above $95,000 would take it into the $98,000–$100,000 zone. A level where stronger resistance and prior breakdown zones sit.
Failure to consolidate above current levels could result in another retest of the $90,000–$92,000 support range. The chart reflects a transition phase: momentum is improving, but confirmation will depend on follow-through and acceptance above this critical resistance area.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com v
Sebastian Villafuerte Read More