Sao Paulo vs Vasco

Sports Mole previews Friday’s Brasileiro clash between Sao Paulo and Vasco da Gama, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Sao Paulo will clash with Vasco da Gama at MorumBIS in a gameweek 12 Brazilian Serie A encounter.

The hosts are 13th in the standings with 12 points from 11 matches, while the visitors are two places behind the home side, having earned 10 points from the same number of matches.


Match preview

 Ferreirinha of Sao Paulo celebrates a goal on April 10, 2025

Sao Paulo started their 2025 Serie A campaign with four consecutive draws against Recife (0-0), Atlético Mineiro (0-0), Cruzeiro (1-1) and Botafogo (2-2) to claim four points from a possible 12.

After enduring a month of frustrating results, the Sovereigns claimed a 2-1 win over Santos in game week five to record their first three points of the current campaign.

However, the Club of Faith could not build on that result, recording only one victory in their six matches, with the other results being three defeats and two draws.

The Tricolours of Sao Paulo have not been defensively solid so far, having conceded 11 goals in 11 fixtures of the season.

That does not come as a surprise for a side that was breached 10 times in their final six games of the previous season.

Rayan of Vasco da Gama pictured with teammates on May 13, 2025

Although Vasco won their final away fixture of last season, courtesy of a 2-1 triumph over Cuiaba, they remain winless in four games on the road this term.

Nevertheless, the Giant of the Hill have won three league games in 2025, but having suffered seven losses from 11 games, they are 13th in the standings, two places ahead of the drop zone.

Ahead of this fixture, the visiting side will be looking to avoid three straight defeats in the Brazilian top flight for the second time in 2025.

With 15 goals conceded in 11 fixtures, a record which is the joint-fourth worst in the league so far, Alvaro Pacheco would be worried about his defence.

However, without a win on the road against Sunday’s opponents since July 2012, the Black Shirts have a lot to do this weekend.

Sao Paulo Brasileiro form:

Sao Paulo form (all competitions):

Vasco da Gama Brasileiro form:

Vasco da Gama form (all competitions):


Team News

Lucas Moura of Sao Paulo pictured on April 13, 2025

Sao Paulo have been unfortunate with injuries in this campaign, with several players on the sidelines.

Forward Jonathan Calleri is battling a knee injury, which has kept him out of action since April; hence, he will not be considered for Sunday’s fixture.

Similarly, Lucas Moura (knee), Ruan Tressoldi (knee), Luis Gustavo (contusion) and Oscar (thigh) are all going to be absent for the hosts.

Meanwhile, Guilherme Estrella has been battling a knee injury since July 2024, and he is not expected to be part of the travelling squad for this encounter.

Dimitri Payet is stricken with a knee injury, and as such, he is unlikely to be named in the starting XI of the visitors.

Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:

Rafael; Soares, Arboleda, Sabino, Wendell; Bobadilla, Maia, Francisco, Ferreira, Diaz; Luciano

Vasco da Gama possible starting lineup:

Jardim; Piton, Freitas, Victor, Henrique; Tche Tche, Jair, Coutinho; Moreira, Vegetti, Rayan


SM words green background

We say: Sao Paulo 1-1 Vasco da Gama

Both sides have had less than ideal starts to the 2025 season, but given the fine home form of the hosts and the struggles of the visiting side on the road, a 1-1 draw appears to be the most likely outcome.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.




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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 50.06%. A draw has a probability of 26.2% and a win for Vasco da Gama has a probability of 23.77%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (9.78%) and 2-1 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (12.32%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it is 0-1 (8.26%).


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