Why a couple spots in the draft order is not all that important to the Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys are playing better football. Normally, that’s fantastic news. However, it’s much less satisfying in a season where the team has already been officially eliminated from the playoffs. Additionally, with each new win the Cowboys pull off, the worse their draft capital becomes. For that reason, some fans have a tough time getting excited about how well the Cowboys are doing recently.

That’s understandable, but there are many layers to this. Draft positioning is only one element, and might not mean as much as you think. A week ago, the Cowboys held the 14th overall pick in the draft and they moved back one spot to 15th after beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. If they lose to Philadelphia, they could move back up a bit.

The Cowboys should end up somewhere around the 14th spot and it shouldn’t matter too much if it’s +/- three spots in either direction (somewhere in the 11th to 17th range). The way the Cowboys draft, it likely won’t matter much in the grand scheme of things, and here is why,

The Cowboys dance to their own beat

Every team evaluates players differently. That is the beauty of the draft. We find out rather quickly that GMs like to do their own thing and it doesn’t take long for the teams to shake up the draft.

The Cowboys are no different. If you look at a couple of recent drafts, they have caught us off guard with some of their selections. Tyler Smith is a good example. Many projected him as a second-round pick and claimed the Cowboys reached for him at 24, but now just a few years in, this All-Pro guard is regarded as one of the best linemen in the league.

Because the Cowboys have their own unique draft board, there’s a decent chance the player they select could be that same player regardless of whether they pick 11th or 17th.

The Cowboys will be sitting in a great position to capitalize

Picking early gives teams the best chance to nab great young talent, but it offers no guarantees. As we mentioned, teams waste little time going off-script meaning some great players will slide. This creates golden opportunities for teams who pick near the middle of the round. The Cowboys experienced this firsthand in 2020 when several teams passed on CeeDee Lamb, gift-wrapping Dallas one of the best wide receivers in the draft.

The Cowboys have done a great job capitalizing on early draft missteps and landing some remarkable talent in the middle of the first round. In the Jerry Jones era, look at the players the team has scored from picks 11 to 17.

• 1990 Emmitt Smith, 17th overall (Hall of Famer)
• 2003 DeMarcus Ware, 11th overall (Hall of Famer)
• 2014 Zack Martin, 16th overall (eventual Hall of Famer)
• 2020 CeeDee Lamb, 17th overall (multi-year All-Pro)
• 2021 Micah Parsons, 12th overall (multi-year All-Pro)

This is an impressive list. Now, what the Cowboys did over 20 years ago doesn’t have any bearing on what they’ll do now as the scouting department has completely changed, but three of the players listed are from the Will McClay era. Not only did the Cowboys make the best possible pick when they were on the clock, but they landed a top-three player at a discount price.

The Cowboys do a great job pivoting

It’s great when one of their blue-chip players falls into their lap, but things don’t always work out that way. In fact, there are times when other teams will snag a player right before it’s their turn to pick. We saw this in 2014 when Aaron Donald almost made it to Dallas but was selected three picks before the Cowboys were up. The defensive players the team was targeting were all taken, forcing them to “settle” for Zack Martin.

A similar thing happened in 2021 when the two top cornerbacks (Patrick Surtain II and Jaycee Horn) were taken right before the Cowboys were up, boom, boom! This caused the front office to pivot. They quickly got on the phones and traded back two spots and picked up an extra third-round pick from Philadelphia. The result was the Eagles got DeVonta Smith while the Cowboys ended up with Micah Parsons and Chauncey Golston.

And while it’s a common misconception that the Cowboys box themselves into a corner in the draft where they have to pick based on need, it doesn’t actually go down like that. Instead, they have a great sense of the talent layout in the draft and will drive to a player they need, sometimes acquiring additional draft capital in the process.

A few spots in the order here or there won’t mean much. Furthermore, what’s happening on the field is extremely important in deciphering where this organization is as a football team.

They need to know where they stand

What kind of football team are the Cowboys? Are they a good team that’s been hit hard by injuries this season or are they in turmoil and need a major overhaul? Improved health will make them a better team, but how much better? Where are the gaps in the roster? Where is more help needed?

These are important questions and require an honest evaluation to determine where they really stand. This not only applies to players but the coaching staff as well. Early on, fans were ready to wash their hands of the Mike Zimmer experiment because they were a hot mess. Some forget there are expected bumps early on due to the learning curve of his system. On top of that, the defense has been hit hard with injuries.

• DeMarcus Lawrence – out most of the year
• DaRon Bland – out most of the year
• Sam Williams – out all year
• Trevon Diggs – out the second half of the year
• DeMarvion Overshown – out the last part of the year
• Micah Parsons, Marshawn Kneeland, and Eric Kendricks – missed multiple games this year

Yet despite all of that, look what we are seeing on defense. It’s far from a finished product, but things are starting to come together.

The recent good play from the defense has taught us a lot about the type of coach Zimmer is and how keeping him around would be a good idea.

What about the offensive coaching staff or Mike McCarthy? Are we seeing some things start to come together? This is a very important decision for the Cowboys in the offseason and getting it right is far more important than a couple of extra spots in the draft order.