Bitcoins
Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, has eliminated Bitcoin from his flagship Greed & Fear model portfolio, citing concerns that developments in quantum computing could pose an existential threat to the cryptocurrency’s cryptographic foundations.
In the latest edition of the widely followed newsletter, Wood confirmed that Jefferies has removed its entire 10% Bitcoin allocation, replacing it with a split allocation of 5% to physical gold and 5% to gold-mining equities, according to Bloomberg.
The strategist said the move reflects rising uncertainty over whether Bitcoin can maintain its role as a long-term store of value in the face of accelerating technological change.
“While Greed & Fear does not believe that the quantum issue is about to hit the Bitcoin price dramatically in the near term, the store-of-value concept is clearly on less solid foundation from the standpoint of a long-term pension portfolio,” Wood wrote.
Wood was an early institutional supporter of Bitcoin, first adding it to the model portfolio in December 2020 amid pandemic-era stimulus and fears of fiat currency debasement. He later increased the allocation to 10% in 2021.
Since that initial inclusion, Bitcoin has risen approximately 325%, compared with a 145% gain in gold over the same period.
Bitcoins Quantum computing presents structural risks to Bitcoin
Despite the strong performance, Wood argues that quantum computing presents a structural risk that cannot be ignored. Bitcoin’s security relies on cryptographic algorithms that are effectively unbreakable using classical computers.
However, sufficiently powerful quantum machines could theoretically derive private keys from public keys, enabling unauthorized transfers and undermining confidence in the network.
Security researchers estimate that roughly 20% to 50% of Bitcoin’s total supply — between 4 million and 10 million BTC — could be vulnerable under certain conditions.
Coinbase researchers have identified approximately 6.5 million BTC held in older wallet formats where public keys are already exposed on-chain, making them susceptible to so-called long-range quantum attacks.
The issue has sparked a growing divide within the Bitcoin ecosystem. Some think that developers are underestimating the risk. Others, including Blockstream CEO Adam Back, maintain that the threat remains distant and that quiet preparatory work toward quantum-resistant signatures is preferable to alarming investors.
The debate has also begun to reach mainstream finance. BlackRock has listed quantum computing as a potential long-term risk in its spot Bitcoin ETF disclosures, while Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko recently suggested there is a 50% chance of a meaningful quantum breakthrough within five years.
For Wood, the uncertainty itself strengthens the case for gold.
He described the metal as a historically tested hedge in an increasingly volatile geopolitical and technological landscape, concluding that the long-term questions raised by quantum computing are “only positive for gold.”
Gold climbed to record highs this month, topping $4,600 per ounce, as investors piled into the safe-haven asset amid escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates following softer U.S. inflation and labor market data.
Micah Zimmerman Read More