CFP Committee Chair Explains Ranking Alabama Ahead of Miami, Ole Miss, South Carolina

The latest College Football Playoff rankings were unveiled on Tuesday, and three-loss Alabama came in at No. 11 ahead of two-loss Miami and a pair of three-loss teams in Ole Miss and South Carolina. Those three schools were ranked Nos. 12-14, respectively.

College Football Playoff chair Warde Manuel justified the selection during his appearance on ESPN, noting that Alabama is “3-1 against current top-25 teams, and Miami is 0-1. Alabama is 6-1 against teams above .500, and Miami is 4-2. Both have had some losses that weren’t what they wanted out of those games, but in the last three games, Miami has lost twice.”

That has the Crimson Tide in prime position to ultimately secure a playoff berth:

Alabama’s ranking was not a popular one outside of Tuscaloosa:

Most of the conference championships won’t have any bearing on Alabama’s potential playoff bid. Texas and Georgia, both playing the SEC Championship Game, are locks to get into the playoff regardless of the result. Ditto for Oregon and Penn State in the Big Ten Championship.

The winner of the Mountain West title game between Boise State and Nevada will get an automatic bid as the highest-ranked conference champion outside of the Power Four. The winner of the Big 12 Championship between Arizona State and Iowa State will get in, while the loser is out.

The ACC Championship Game is the only game that could hurt Alabama’s playoff hopes. If Clemson beats SMU, securing the automatic playoff berth, the CFP Committee will have to decide between the two-loss Mustangs and three-loss Crimson Tide for the final at-large berth.

It’s not a stretch to think SMU could drop below Alabama, though it would set the precedent that reaching a conference championship but losing it is more detrimental to a playoff résumé than not reaching a conference title game at all.

“SMU is in the tournament,” ACC commissioner Jim Phillips told Chris Vannini of The Athletic on Monday. “I don’t see any way you can’t keep SMU in regardless of what happens on Saturday. Playing in a conference championship game, there cannot be a negative residual to that if you are in the field going into that weekend. If you are in the top 12, there should be no downside.”

Despite Phillips’ argument above, SMU’s exclusion is a possibility:

SMU is 0-1 against teams currently ranked in the top 25, the same record that was used against Miami by the Committee. But SMU is 5-1 against teams above .500, and the team’s only loss came on Sept. 6 against BYU by just three points.

The Mustangs have been better down the stretch than Miami, and a loss against Clemson—unless it was an embarrassing blowout—wouldn’t be seen as a bad loss.

SMU can end the conversation by simply beating Clemson, which would ensure both they and Alabama made the playoff field. But the situation becomes much more controversial if the Mustangs lose.