{"id":912835,"date":"2026-06-14T18:14:02","date_gmt":"2026-06-14T23:14:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/14\/japans-central-bank-cools-rate-hike-expectations-removing-a-key-risk-for-bitcoins-rally\/"},"modified":"2026-06-14T18:14:02","modified_gmt":"2026-06-14T23:14:02","slug":"japans-central-bank-cools-rate-hike-expectations-removing-a-key-risk-for-bitcoins-rally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/14\/japans-central-bank-cools-rate-hike-expectations-removing-a-key-risk-for-bitcoins-rally\/","title":{"rendered":"Japan&#8217;s central bank cools rate hike expectations, removing a key risk for bitcoin&#8217;s rally"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoins <\/p>\n<div data-theme=\"light\" data-module-name=\"page\" data-module-version=\"1.0.0\" data-module-instance=\"default\" id=\"content\">\n<div data-module-name=\"article-header\" data-module-version=\"1.0.0\" data-module-instance=\"default\">\n<h2>Bitcoins The BOJ&#8217;s dovish shift keeps the yen carry trade alive, the same trade whose unwind crashed bitcoin 24% in two days in August 2024.<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<figure><img loading=\"lazy\" title=\"bitcoins\" alt=\"bitcoins Japan flag in front of a building (Rom\u00e9o A.\/Unsplash)\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1080\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"1\"   src=\"http:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/_next\/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.sanity.io%2Fimages%2Fs3y3vcno%2Fproduction%2Fd3c36f86c5d814d9ec493dae6d7fde7687526f38-1920x1280.jpg%3Fauto%3Dformat&#038;w=3840&#038;q=75\"><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div id=\"se-_R_4lqanpfiupanivb_\">\n<ul>\n<li>Bitcoin&#8217;s surge past $74,000 was helped by the Bank of Japan&#8217;s signal that it is unlikely to raise interest rates at its April 28 meeting, easing macro pressures on risk assets.<\/li>\n<li>A dovish Bank of Japan keeps the yen weak and carry-trade funding cheap, supporting leveraged positions in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as open interest in futures climbs.<\/li>\n<li>If U.S.-Iran talks lead to lower oil prices and reduced inflation pressure in Japan, the central bank will have even less incentive to hike, extending the period in which the yen-funded carry trade can bolster bitcoin.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Bitcoin&#8217;s breakout past $74,000 on Monday got a helping hand from Japan.<\/p>\n<p>Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-04-14\/japan-20-year-bond-sale-sees-strongest-demand-since-2019?srnd=homepage-asia\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">cooled expectations<\/a> for an interest rate hike at the upcoming April 28 policy meeting, signaling a more cautious stance amid uncertainty over how the Iran war will affect Japan&#8217;s economy.<\/p>\n<p>Such decisions have shown to spillover to the crypto market in previous years. On August 5, 2024, a surprise BOJ rate hike triggered a yen carry trade unwind that crashed bitcoin from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/markets\/2024\/08\/05\/bitcoin-drops-15-against-japanese-yen-outpacing-declines-versus-usd-as-yen-carry-trades-unwind\">$64,000 to $49,000 in 48 hours<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>The carry trade, where investors borrow cheaply in yen and deploy into higher-yielding assets including crypto, had become one of the largest sources of leveraged risk-asset exposure globally. A yen unwind tends to cause quick sell-offs in risk assets, with bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies the first to be hit.<\/p>\n<p>But Ueda just signaled that trade stays intact for at least another month. Japan&#8217;s 20-year bond auction on Tuesday drew its strongest demand since 2019, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.82 against a 12-month average of 3.27, confirming that institutional capital agrees the hiking cycle is pausing. <\/p>\n<p>Twenty-year yields, near their highest since 1997, fell nine basis points after the auction.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>A dovish BOJ keeps the yen weak, currently near 160 against the dollar. A weak yen keeps carry trade funding cheap. Cheap carry funding supports leveraged positions across risk assets, including the perpetual futures markets where bitcoin&#8217;s rally is being built. <\/p>\n<p>Data from last week showed $2.1 billion in new bitcoin open interest and $2.2 billion in ether open interest in 24 hours following the ceasefire, with coin-denominated OI confirming net new longs. Some portion of that positioning maybe funded, directly or indirectly, by the same yen liquidity that Ueda just preserved.<\/p>\n<p>Japan is also among the economies most exposed to the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than 90% of its oil imports flow. <\/p>\n<p>If U.S.-Iran talks produce a deal and oil prices continue falling, Japan&#8217;s inflation pressure eases further, giving the BOJ even less reason to hike and extending the window in which the carry trade supports risk assets.<\/p>\n<p>As such, the BOJ&#8217;s caution is one more tailwind behind bitcoin&#8217;s breakout. The $73,000 ceiling held for six weeks partly because macro headwinds, from oil to rates to geopolitics, gave leveraged traders no reason to push through it. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p> Shaurya Malwa <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/markets\/2026\/04\/14\/japan-s-central-bank-cools-rate-hike-expectations-removing-a-key-risk-for-bitcoin-s-rally\" class=\"button purchase\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The BOJ&#8217;s dovish shift keeps the yen carry trade alive, the same trade whose unwind crashed bitcoin 24% in two days in August 2024. Bitcoin&#8217;s surge past $74,000 was helped by the Bank of Japan&#8217;s signal that it is unlikely to raise interest rates at its April 28 meeting, easing macro pressures on risk assets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":912836,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22947,28364],"tags":[11476],"class_list":["post-912835","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-central","category-japans","tag-bitcoins"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/912835","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=912835"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/912835\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/912836"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=912835"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=912835"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=912835"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}