” data-large-file=”https:\/\/vikingsterritory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/murphinj-1180×672.jpg”> Every June, ESPN releases its FPI \u2014 Football Power Index \u2014 a thermometer of each team\u2019s ranking before the regular season. This go-around, the metric claims the Minnesota Vikings are the league\u2019s 19th-best team and on tap for an 8-9 record.<\/p>\n Yes, it\u2019s a fancy way of saying the most powerful sports network in the world believes the Vikings are mid. <\/p>\n ” data-large-file=”https:\/\/vikingsterritory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/USATSI_21769129-1180×787.jpg” src=”https:\/\/vikingsterritory.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/width=788,height=444,fit=crop,quality=75,gravity=auto,metadata=none,format=auto,onerror=redirect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/USATSI_21769129.jpg” alt=”Jordan Addison celebrates with Vikings fans after scoring a touchdown at Lambeau Field. ESPN FPI Vikings” > ESPN FPI: Vikings at No. 19<\/strong><\/p>\n FPI rankings are out<\/a>, and the Vikings are sandwiched between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 18) and the Indianapolis Colts (No. 20). ESPN argues that Minnesota is the NFL\u2019s 19th-best team with the ninth-worst offense. The metric basically does not trust Kyler Murray<\/a> and J.J. McCarthy.<\/p>\n Defense is a different story \u2014 thank goodness. ESPN FPI placed Minnesota at No. 7 defensively, which is actually a bit low because the Vikings ranked third-best in the league per EPA\/Play and DVOA last season. <\/p>\n On special teams, Minnesota pulled down the No. 8 spot, probably because kicker Will Reichard<\/a> was an All-Pro in 2025. And via strength of schedule, it was No. 16 for the Vikings \u2014 smack dab in the middle. <\/p>\n All told, FPI claims that Minnesota has a 29.1% chance of reaching the postseason. <\/p>\n What Is FPI?<\/strong><\/p>\n New to FPI? That\u2019s fair; it\u2019s not overly popular. Here\u2019s how ESPN describes the stat<\/a>:<\/p>\n At its core, NFL FPI is a prediction system for the NFL. Each team\u2019s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams efficiency, as measured by expected points added per play, and that rating is the basis for FPI\u2019s game-level and season-level projections. Other information included in the preseason ratings include: previous years\u2019 efficiencies for each unit, number of returning starters (on offense and defense), coaching\/coordinator\/quarterback changes and quarterback injuries.<\/p>\n After combining all of these factors, a preseason FPI rating is determined for each team, which represents the points above or below average a team is expected to be in the coming season. Preseason FPI will serve as the basis of the early-season predictions but will diminish in effect as the season progresses and we learn more about the actual strength of each team.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n FPI calls the Los Angeles Rams<\/a> the top dog in the NFL \u2014 most do \u2014 with the Buffalo Bills a distant second.<\/p>\n ESPN\u2019s Seth Walder noted<\/a> on the NFC North specifically, \u201cThe NFC North trio of the Bears, Packers and Vikings rank 10th, 14th and 16th in strength of schedule, respectively. But the Lions rank 31st. Detroit lucked out after finishing last in the division in 2025, as its fourth-place schedule differ significantly from its NFC North rivals.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThough the other three teams must battle with NFC West heavyweights, the Lions face the Cardinals. Same deal (to less of an extreme) in facing the AFC South \u2014 the rest of the division has to face one of the Texans, Colts and Jaguars, while the Lions play the Titans. Detroit also will face the Giants, and the Bears and Packers will have to tangle with the Eagles<\/a> and Cowboys, respectively.\u201d<\/p>\n The 2024 Warning<\/strong><\/p>\n At this time on the calendar in 2024, the Vikings ranked 25th per ESPN FPI. How did they respond? The club won 14 games during Sam Darnold\u2019s rebirth season<\/a> and almost pulled off an NFC North crown if not for a lousy game at Detroit in Week 18.<\/p>\n ” data-large-file=”https:\/\/vikingsterritory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Justin-Jefferson-1180×600.jpg” src=”https:\/\/vikingsterritory.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/width=788,height=444,fit=crop,quality=75,gravity=auto,metadata=none,format=auto,onerror=redirect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Justin-Jefferson.jpg” alt=”Justin Jefferson warms up before a Vikings game against the Green Bay Packers. ESPN FPI Vikings” > FPI is a wonderful guideline for how teams might fare in an upcoming season, but it obviously is not gospel. It also fluctuates. For example, if Minnesota wins its first few games in September, it will climb into the FPI Top 10, and few will remember the 19th ranking from June.<\/p>\n Another club that might be ranked too low? The New Orleans Saints<\/a>. They sit at No. 25 per FPI. New Orleans finished the 2025 campaign strong, and some are high on quarterback Tyler Shough\u2019s upside. <\/p>\n It\u2019s the Defense, Stupid.<\/strong><\/p>\n Flores has quietly assembled one of the NFL\u2019s most formidable defenses in Minnesota. Consider the Vikings\u2019 defensive EPA\/Play rankings since Flores\u2019s arrival:<\/p>\n 2023: 17th<\/strong> The data reveals a noteworthy trend: over three years, Minnesota has boasted the NFL\u2019s second-best defense by EPA\/Play under Flores\u2019s leadership.<\/p>\n The accomplishment should not be overlooked. Regardless of the Vikings\u2019 offensive performance in 2026, the defense is already strong enough to contend for a Super Bow<\/a>l. Unfortunately, the team\u2019s inconsistent offense has overshadowed this larger narrative. In one season, the offense might struggle to find its rhythm; in another, it falters critically when it matters most. All the while, the defense performs at a high level.<\/p>\n ” data-large-file=”https:\/\/vikingsterritory.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Brian-Flores-1180×618.jpg” src=”https:\/\/vikingsterritory.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/width=788,height=444,fit=crop,quality=75,gravity=auto,metadata=none,format=auto,onerror=redirect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Brian-Flores.jpg” alt=”Brian Flores watches from the sideline during a Vikings game against the Packers. ESPN FPI Vikings” > Flores now possesses the talent, reputation, and track record to demonstrate that ESPN\u2019s No. 19 ranking is undervalued. Barring an unforeseen collapse, Minnesota is poised to once again feature one of the league\u2019s elite defensive units. It\u2019s what Flores does. <\/p>\n The Vikings don\u2019t need to aspire to a championship-caliber defense; they already have one.<\/p>\n Dustin Baker is a novelist and political scientist. His second novel, The Invaders <\/a>, is out now. So is … More about Dustin Baker<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n <\/main><\/p>\n<\/div>\nFootball Brian Flores Should Give Vikings a Better Case Than No. 19<\/h2>\n
Oct 29, 2023; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison (3) celebrates with fans after scoring a touchdown in the third quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports<\/p>\n
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Sep 29, 2024; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) during warmups prior to the game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images.<\/p>\n
2024: 1st<\/strong>
2025: 3rd<\/strong>
2023\u20132025 overall: 2nd<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nJan 4, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores looks on against the Green Bay Packers during the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Blewett-Imagn Images.<\/p>\n
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