Advances in quantum computing could eventually pose a threat to Bitcoin\u2019s cryptographic security, but the risk remains manageable and unlikely to cause existential disruption, according to a new research report by Bernstein.<\/p>\n
In the report, the Bernstein team \u2014 Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, Sanskar Chindalia and Harsh Misra \u2014 described quantum computing as a \u201cmanageable upgrade cycle\u201d rather than an \u201cexistential risk.\u201d<\/p>\n
Recent breakthroughs, including research from Google<\/a> showing a significant reduction in the resources required to break modern encryption, have accelerated the timeline for potential threats. However, building quantum computers powerful enough to compromise Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) remains years away due to major technical hurdles and high costs.<\/p>\n Bernstein estimates the crypto industry has roughly three to five years to prepare for post-quantum security upgrades<\/a>, allowing time to transition toward quantum-resistant cryptographic standards.<\/p>\n The transition would likely be handled by Bitcoin\u2019s open-source developer community and core contributors, who are responsible for proposing and implementing protocol upgrades through consensus.<\/p>\n Quantum experts generally give a 10-year timeline for cryptographically relevant quantum computers (CRQCs), or machines capable of breaking today\u2019s encryption. Source: Bernstein<\/em><\/p>\n Related: <\/strong><\/em>Researchers say quantum computers could, in theory, be ready by 2030<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n Quantum computing differs from classical computing in that it uses \u201cqubits,\u201d which can encode multiple states simultaneously. This enables algorithms that, in principle, could break widely used encryption methods, including those used to secure Bitcoin wallets.<\/p>\n Still, the risk is not uniform across the network.<\/p>\n According to Bernstein, vulnerabilities are primarily concentrated in older Bitcoin wallets<\/a> and addresses that reuse public keys, which are more exposed to potential attacks. Newer wallet formats and best practices, such as avoiding address reuse, significantly reduce this risk.<\/p>\n Bitcoin\u2019s mining process<\/a>, which relies on SHA-256 hashing, is not considered meaningfully vulnerable to quantum attacks or quantum computing breakthroughs.<\/p>\n Bernstein believes certain Bitcoin address types \u2014 specifically pay-to-public-key (P2PK), pay-to-multisig (P2MS) and pay-to-Taproot (P2TR) \u2014 are among the most vulnerable to quantum risks.<\/p>\n Bernstein identifies P2PK, P2MS and P2TR address types as the most vulnerable to quantum risks. Source: Bernstein<\/em><\/p>\n The risk is particularly pronounced for older \u201clegacy\u201d wallets. Roughly 1.7 million Bitcoin, including an estimated 1.1 million BTC attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto<\/a>, are held in early P2PK addresses, where public keys are permanently exposed.<\/p>\n Related: <\/strong><\/em>Is $450B in Bitcoin vulnerable to the quantum threat? Analysts weigh in<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph\u2019s Editorial Policy<\/a> and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. <\/p>\n![\"bitcoins\"](\"https:\/\/s3-images.ctmedia.io\/media\/content\/019d6e75-ce7f-7095-b88d-2129739aafb1.png\" "\\"bitcoins\\"")
<\/figure>\nBitcoins Quantifying the quantum risk for Bitcoin<\/h2>\n
![\"bitcoins\"](\"https:\/\/s3-images.ctmedia.io\/media\/content\/019d6e75-d1b7-779b-81d0-8caa6c091ecf.png\" "\\"bitcoins\\"")
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