Bitcoins <\/p>\n
$66,500. The Fear Today, Follow The damage Paul While most That Bitcoin From a As the March analysis of BTC testing How high can Bitcoin go? Source: Tradingview.com<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n However, my
\nThat is where Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) trades on Thursday, April 2, 2026, down 2.4% as
\nTrump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, targeting more than 50
\ncountries at rates between 10% and 50%, adds another layer of uncertainty to a
\nmarket already reeling from its worst first quarter since 2018. Q1 erased
\napproximately 23% of Bitcoin’s value, the steepest opening quarter decline in
\neight years. <\/p>\n
\n& Greed Index sits at 11, the deepest stretch of extreme fear since the FTX
\ncollapse in late 2022. Yet behind the bearish headlines, a different question
\nis forming: how high can Bitcoin go if the macro headwinds clear? In one of my recent analytical articles covering
\nBitcoin’s bear flag<\/a>,
\nI examined the downside scenario, identifying a $50,000 target. <\/p>\n
\nbased on my over 15 years of experience as an analyst and trader, I turn to the
\nopposite side of the equation, the bull case and the bitcoin price prediction
\nlevels that apply if buyers regain control.<\/p>\n
\nme on X for real-time market analysis: @ChmielDk<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\nWhy Bitcoin Closed Its
\nWorst Quarter Since 2018, and What Comes Next<\/h2>\n
\nfrom Q1 is structural, not superficial. Bitcoin began 2026 oscillating between
\n$82,000 and $98,000 before that range collapsed in February under the combined
\nweight of Trump’s 15% global tariff (imposed after the Supreme Court struck
\ndown his IEEPA tariffs), the US-Iran military escalation, and a hawkish Fed
\nholding at 3.5-3.75%. As the February analysis of BTC dropping
\nbelow $63,000<\/a>
\ndocumented, $240 million in forced long liquidations, sustained ETF outflows,
\nand whale selling turned a correction into a rout.<\/p>\n
\nHoward, Director at digital asset liquidity<\/span><\/span><\/span> <\/span> provider Wincent, frames the damage
\nin historical context: Bitcoin closed Q1 down 23%, its weakest start to the
\nyear since 2018, when it fell 48% in the first quarter. Howard argues that
\nsharp quarterly declines have historically been followed by mean reversion.<\/p>\n
\nanalysts are not expecting an immediate return to $100,000 this quarter, Howard
\nsays the base case points toward a recovery, with Bitcoin likely to post
\npositive gains and finish Q2 above current levels.<\/p>\n
\noutlook rests on two pillars. First, geopolitical de-escalation: Trump stated
\nlast week that the Iran war could wind down within two to three weeks, and
\nmarkets briefly rallied on the news. Second, monetary easing: CME FedWatch
\npricing has pushed the first expected rate cut to the second half of 2026, but
\nany acceleration of that timeline would provide fuel for risk assets. <\/p>\n
\nspot ETFs absorbed $18.7 billion in net inflows during Q1 despite the price
\ndecline, according to data from Blocklr, suggesting institutional conviction
\nhas not disappeared, it has simply moved to a lower price range. As the January bitcoin price prediction for
\n2026<\/a> from Finance
\nMagnates noted, institutional forecasts already spanned $75,000 to $225,000,
\nreflecting deep uncertainty about the trajectory.<\/p>\nBTC Technical Analysis:
\nBitcoin Fibonacci Extensions Target $170,000 and $240,000<\/h2>\n
\ntechnical perspective, Bitcoin is consolidating inside the same range for the
\nsecond consecutive month. The upper boundary sits at $74,000-$75,000, the lower
\nat $60,000-$62,000. The 200-period exponential moving average, which separates
\nthe bearish trend from the bullish one, is located at nearly $85,000, a
\nconsiderable distance from the current price. That gap illustrates how
\ndecisively the downtrend has developed since the October 2025 all-time high of
\n$126,000.<\/p>\n
\n$74,500<\/a>
\nestablished, the consolidation break above $72,000 during the eight-session
\nrally was a genuine technical positive, but it occurred within a broader
\ndowntrend structure. The 50 EMA continues to cap rally attempts, and my chart
\nshows nothing has changed structurally despite repeated bounce attempts.<\/p>\n
\nanalysis today focuses on the measured upside if supply pressure lifts. Using
\ntrend-based Fibonacci extensions, I stretched the grid from the November 2022
\ncycle low of approximately $15,000 through the October 2025 all-time high of
\n$126,000, then measured the correction that has been unfolding since, with a
\ntrough so far at $60,000. The projections are clear:<\/p>\n