{"id":906765,"date":"2026-05-18T11:13:10","date_gmt":"2026-05-18T16:13:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/18\/global-solar-capex-rebound-in-2026-driven-by-investment-in-us-and-india\/"},"modified":"2026-05-18T11:13:10","modified_gmt":"2026-05-18T16:13:10","slug":"global-solar-capex-rebound-in-2026-driven-by-investment-in-us-and-india","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/18\/global-solar-capex-rebound-in-2026-driven-by-investment-in-us-and-india\/","title":{"rendered":"Global solar capex rebound in 2026 driven by investment in US and India"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

The capex\u00a0rebound\u00a0is being\u00a0driven by\u00a0three key factors.\u00a0In the US and India, a significant\u00a0ramp-up in domestic PV capabilities\u00a0is\u00a0offsetting reduced\u00a0capex\u00a0spending in China and Southeast Asia.\u00a0Globally, the focus\u00a0on\u00a0upstream segments of the solar supply chain is intensifying, driving\u00a0increased\u00a0investment in\u00a0cell\u00a0manufacturing.\u00a0Meanwhile, regions such as the Middle East are becoming key players in the global solar manufacturing landscape, with\u00a0countries\u00a0such as\u00a0Egypt and Oman rapidly building capacity, supported by strategic partnerships and export-oriented production models.\u00a0<\/p>\n

All of\u00a0these shifts are being intensified by\u00a0a growing global movement to diversify supply chains outside of China and\u00a0strengthen local production. This\u00a0objective\u00a0is being driven\u00a0by domestic incentives in the US and India, and by regulatory changes, such as anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD\/CVD) and Foreign Entities of Concern (FEOC) rules in the US,\u00a0and new requirements under frameworks such as Europe\u2019s Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA).\u00a0<\/p>\n

Our 2026 forecast is\u00a0based on\u00a0a detailed analysis of current spending trends within existing facilities, coupled with projected expenditures for factories that have already commenced construction.\u00a0By\u00a0analysing\u00a0these data points, we aim to provide a\u00a0balanced\u00a0outlook that reflects both ongoing operational investments and the\u00a0anticipated\u00a0contributions\u00a0of new developments.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Global PV manufacturing capex is expected to rebound in 2026. Image: PV Tech Research.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Why\u00a0capex\u00a0is Increasing in the US and India<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h2>\n

The United States and India are at the forefront of the global solar\u00a0capex\u00a0rebound, driven by distinct yet complementary factors.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In the US, the\u00a0solar manufacturing sector is experiencing robust growth, supported by a combination of\u00a0financial incentives\u00a0and\u00a0regulatory measures. The expansion of anti-dumping and countervailing tariffs (AD\/CVD) has played a pivotal role in encouraging domestic production. These tariffs, initially introduced to counter unfair trade practices,\u00a0cover China and\u00a0several\u00a0Southeast Asian countries. India,\u00a0Laos\u00a0and Indonesia are also under investigation, with\u00a0preliminary countervailing measures<\/a>\u00a0imposed on these\u00a0countries\u00a0in\u00a0February. The antidumping investigation is ongoing.\u00a0Meanwhile, new\u00a0FEOC rules\u00a0place further emphasis on local production\u00a0and\u00a0reducing reliance on foreign-controlled supply chains.\u00a0Alongside\u00a0federal\u00a0tax credits,\u00a0these measures have spurred significant interest in building domestic manufacturing capacity.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Utilisation rates across US manufacturing facilities are approaching 80%. Image: PV Tech Research.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The demand for domestically manufactured PV modules is clearly reflected in utilisation rates across the US\u00a0manufacturing landscape.\u00a0Utilisation rates across US manufacturing facilities are approaching 80%, which is considered full capacity. This strong demand is expected to absorb any future capacity additions in the short to medium term.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

However, the US still faces supply chain gaps, particularly in upstream segments. Current data reveals that cell capacity covers only 50% of module production, wafer capacity covers just 10% of cell production, and polysilicon capacity accounts for a mere 5% of module production. Addressing these gaps is critical to sustaining the growth of the US solar manufacturing sector.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Several players are capitalising on these opportunities. For instance, Hemlock (Corning) launched wafer production at the end of 2025, while ES Foundry\u00a0has\u00a0tripled its cell capacity. These developments highlight the ongoing shift in capex focus from modules to upstream segments\u00a0such as\u00a0cells,\u00a0wafers\u00a0and polysilicon.\u00a0Underpinning this is\u00a0a shift in regulation, with recent AD\/CVD rulings covering cells, FEOC requirements,\u00a0and the upcoming Section 232 on\u00a0polysilicon.\u202f\u00a0<\/p>\n

India:\u00a0competing on the\u00a0global\u00a0stage<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h2>\n

India\u2019s solar manufacturing sector is also\u00a0witnessing\u00a0significant growth, driven by government support and competitive market dynamics. The Indian government has been one of the largest drivers of manufacturing growth in the country, specifically through the large government tenders. However, while government support initially set out to provide\u202fIndian-manufactured PV modules for the domestic market, we are seeing Indian producers becoming much more competitive on the global stage and pursuing new markets that were historically dominated by China.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Indian companies\u00a0such as\u00a0Waaree\u00a0have become important players in the US market, while others are exploring opportunities in Europe. The inclusion of India in the list of countries affected by US\u00a0countervailing and, possibly,\u00a0anti-dumping\u00a0measures\u00a0(depending on the outcome of this part of the ongoing investigation)\u00a0underscores its growing importance as a manufacturing base and the competitive threat it poses to\u00a0established\u00a0players.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Bridging the gap between module and cell capacity will be a key determinant of India\u2019s\u00a0capex\u00a0outlook. Image: PV Tech Research.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Despite these positive trends, questions\u00a0remain\u00a0about the sustainability of India\u2019s capacity expansion. Utilisation rates have\u00a0generally ranged\u00a0between 50% and 60%,\u00a0indicating\u00a0steady use of added capacity. However, the decline in utilisation rates before 2023\u00a0\u2013 when the industry was booming \u2013\u00a0raises concerns about the\u00a0sustainability\u00a0of\u00a0this growth. Bridging the gap between module and cell capacity will be a key determinant of India\u2019s\u00a0capex\u00a0outlook.\u00a0By the end of 2025, module capacity stood at\u00a0just\u00a0over\u00a082GW, while cell capacity\u00a0was\u00a0at just\u00a0under\u00a030GW, highlighting the need for further investment in upstream segments.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The\u00a0rebound in\u00a0cell\u00a0capex<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h2>\n

Historically, the largest\u00a0share of solar capex has been\u00a0allocated\u00a0to cell manufacturing, primarily driven by\u00a0technological advancements\u00a0in\u00a0this segment. The rebound in cell capex can be attributed to several factors.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Chief among these\u00a0is the\u00a0example\u00a0of the\u00a0US and India,\u00a0where module capacity has grown to such an extent that cell production must now catch up\u00a0to enable\u00a0supply chains to become fully localised.\u00a0Again, measures such as trade tariffs, FEOC rules\u00a0and other incentives and regulations\u00a0are\u00a0providing the carrots and sticks to drive\u00a0that\u00a0localisation\u00a0process, which is now increasingly including the upstream segments.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Added to this is the fact that\u00a0cell production is more complex and more costly than\u00a0module manufacturing, requiring greater\u00a0capex\u00a0investment.\u00a0A key related factor\u00a0is\u00a0the technological evolution underway, as many large players transition from tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPcon)\u00a0to back-contact\u00a0technology\u00a0and\u00a0move towards\u00a0tandem, driving the need for new investments in cell manufacturing.<\/p>\n

Emerging\u00a0manufacturing\u00a0hubs:\u00a0the Middle East and\u00a0beyond<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h2>\n

Outside the US and India, other regions are\u00a0benefiting\u00a0from the global solar\u00a0capex\u00a0rebound;\u00a0we are seeing investments across the board in\u202fChina,\u202fTurkey,\u00a0Egypt\u00a0and Oman, with further expansions announced in\u202fEuropean capacity.\u202f\u202f\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Middle East has\u00a0emerged\u00a0as a key player, with Egypt and Oman\u00a0notably\u00a0leading the charge.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Egypt has\u00a0demonstrated\u00a0remarkable speed in building solar manufacturing capacity. Elite Solar\u00a0established\u00a0a 5GW cell-and-module facility (2GW cells and 3GW modules) within just 14 months of signing contracts. This efficiency has made Egypt an attractive partner for six other PV manufacturers looking to\u00a0locate\u00a0capacity in the country.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Oman has completed a polysilicon facility capable of producing enough material for 40GW of solar panels. Additionally, it hosts a 400MW solar module plant for JA\u00a0Solar. These developments position Oman as a significant player in the global solar manufacturing landscape.\u00a0However, many of the facilities\u00a0opening up\u00a0in the Middle East aim to export most of their production; it remains to be seen how much of that production will be used in the domestic market.\u00a0<\/p>\n

On this front,\u202fTurkey\u202fstands out.\u00a0Turkey\u2019s\u00a0solar manufacturing sector is growing organically, driven by domestic demand and proximity to European markets. While its capacity figures are smaller compared to other Middle Eastern countries,\u00a0Turkey\u2019s\u00a0strategic location makes it a key player in serving European and US markets.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h2>\n

The global solar\u00a0capex\u00a0rebound in 2026 marks a turning point for the industry, driven by investments in the US and India, alongside emerging opportunities in other regions. The expansion of module and cell manufacturing capacity, coupled with favourable policies and incentives, is reshaping the solar manufacturing landscape. However, challenges\u00a0remain, including supply chain gaps in the US and questions about the sustainability of India\u2019s capacity expansion.\u00a0<\/p>\n

As the focus shifts upstream to cells, wafers, and polysilicon, the industry must navigate regulatory changes and technological transitions to sustain growth. Emerging manufacturing hubs like Egypt, Oman and\u00a0Turkey\u00a0are playing an increasingly\u00a0important role, highlighting the global nature of this rebound.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Looking beyond 2026, our forecasts through 2030\u00a0build\u00a0on current spending patterns and this year\u2019s projections as a baseline. These longer-term outlooks incorporate broader economic trends, such as inflation,\u00a0shifts in global supply chains\u00a0and industry growth trajectories, to outline potential growth scenarios and provide a forward-looking perspective on the evolving market.\u00a0<\/p>\n

By 2030, we\u00a0anticipate\u00a0investments outside of China will continue moving upstream, with markets increasingly focusing on wafers and polysilicon as cell manufacturing capacity expands. Governments are expected to play a pivotal role in shaping these priorities\u00a0with a strategic focus on building domestic supply chains to enhance energy security.\u00a0Meanwhile, investments\u00a0in China are expected to grow alongside technological advancements\u00a0and the next phase of PV cell technology, further solidifying its role as a leader in\u00a0cutting-edge\u00a0solar manufacturing.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The capex rebound highlights how the industry is\u00a0addressing supply chain gaps, embracing technological advancements, and diversifying production bases\u00a0and positioning itself\u00a0to meet the growing demand for clean energy and\u00a0resilient supply.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Q1 edition of the \u2018PV manufacturing and technology\u00a0quarterly\u2019<\/em>\u00a0report, the definitive benchmarking resource for the PV technology value chain, is out now and available\u00a0<\/em>here<\/em><\/a>.<\/em>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The capex\u00a0rebound\u00a0is being\u00a0driven by\u00a0three key factors.\u00a0In the US and India, a significant\u00a0ramp-up in domestic PV capabilities\u00a0is\u00a0offsetting reduced\u00a0capex\u00a0spending in China and Southeast Asia.\u00a0Globally, the focus\u00a0on\u00a0upstream segments of the solar supply chain is intensifying, driving\u00a0increased\u00a0investment in\u00a0cell\u00a0manufacturing.\u00a0Meanwhile, regions such as the Middle East are becoming key players in the global solar manufacturing landscape, with\u00a0countries\u00a0such as\u00a0Egypt and Oman rapidly<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":906766,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1424,3945],"tags":[9295,7566],"class_list":{"0":"post-906765","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-global","8":"category-solar","9":"tag-global","10":"tag-solar"},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/906765","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=906765"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/906765\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/906766"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=906765"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=906765"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=906765"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}