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- Citigroup lowered its 12-month Bitcoin forecast from US$143K to US$112K and its Ethereum target from US$4,304 to US$3,175, citing weaker network activity and slower legislative progress.<\/span><\/li>\n
- The bank cut its projected bitcoin ETF demand from US$15 billion to US$10 billion.<\/span><\/li>\n
- However, it still considers institutional inflows through ETFs the single most important catalyst for crypto prices.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
Citigroup cut its 12-month cryptocurrency forecasts on March 17, lowering its Bitcoin<\/a> (BTC) target by about 22% to US$112,000 (AU$157,500) and its Ethereum<\/a> (ETH) estimate by roughly 26% to US$3,175 (AU$4,465), citing weaker network activity and delays in U.S. regulation.<\/p>\n
In a note, the bank pointed to declining on-chain usage, reduced expectations for exchange-traded fund inflows, and signs of fatigue in derivatives markets as key drivers behind the downgrade.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Its projection for Bitcoin ETF demand<\/a> was reduced from US$15 billion (AU$21 billion) to US$10 billion (AU$14 billion), although institutional flows through ETFs remain the main source of price support.<\/p>\n
Read more: SEC and CFTC Sign Pact to Coordinate Crypto Oversight<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n
Legislation Hits a Wall<\/h2>\n
Progress on US crypto legislation has stalled.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, approved by the House in July 2025, has been held in the Senate Banking Committee since January. Disagreements over stablecoin yield rules<\/a> intensified after opposition from the American Bankers Association, and lawmakers have indicated the bill is unlikely to advance before April.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Market-based estimates now place the probability of passage at around 56\u201360%. Additional provisions restricting elected officials from profiting from crypto ventures were identified as a potential barrier to final approval.<\/p>\n
Citigroup said the window for meaningful regulatory catalysts this year is narrowing, which could limit further institutional adoption.<\/p>\n
The bank outlined a range of possible outcomes. In a stronger adoption scenario, Bitcoin could reach US$165,000 (AU$232,155) and ETH US$4,488 (AU$6,315). Under weaker macroeconomic conditions, targets fall to US$58,000 (AU$81,606) for Bitcoin and US$1,198 (AU$1,685) for ETH.<\/p>\n
The revision aligns with a broader pullback in bullish projections across Wall Street. Standard Chartered recently reduced its Bitcoin outlook to US$100K (AU$140K), down from US$150K (AU$211K) set in late 2025.<\/p>\n
At press time, Bitcoin was trading near US$74K (AU$104K), with US$70K (AU$98K) identified as a key level tied to its pre-election price.\u00a0<\/p>\n
![](\"https:\/\/cdn.cryptonews.com.au\/2026\/03\/18153706\/image-6.png\")
Source: TradingView.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n ETH, around US$2,315 (AU$3,257), is particularly sensitive to declines in user activity.<\/p>\n
- The bank cut its projected bitcoin ETF demand from US$15 billion to US$10 billion.<\/span><\/li>\n