{"id":894990,"date":"2026-03-28T06:13:32","date_gmt":"2026-03-28T11:13:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/28\/inside-the-prediction-markets-congress-rewrites-the-playbook\/"},"modified":"2026-03-28T06:13:32","modified_gmt":"2026-03-28T11:13:32","slug":"inside-the-prediction-markets-congress-rewrites-the-playbook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/28\/inside-the-prediction-markets-congress-rewrites-the-playbook\/","title":{"rendered":"Inside the Prediction Markets: Congress Rewrites the Playbook"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Prediction markets kept moving this week.<\/p>\n

Trading continues, positions are opened and closed, and the machinery keeps running. On the surface, it still looks like business as usual, but it doesn’t.<\/p>\n

Singapore Summit: Meet the largest APAC brokers you know (and those you still don’t!)<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

\nMore attention is shifting to how these markets handle information. Questions around insider trading, new legislation, and changes in platform rules are starting to converge around the same point: who gets to act on information, and when.\n<\/p>\n

\nHere\u2019s what mattered this week. <\/p>\n

What Moved the Prediction Markets This Week <\/h2>\n

Behind the $967K Trade
\n<\/h3>\n

\nAn investigation published<\/a> by CNN this week pointed to a pattern that has been discussed for months, but rarely documented this clearly.<\/p>\n

Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps identified a cluster of linked accounts it believes are controlled by a single trader, who made nearly $967,000 on Polymarket by repeatedly betting on U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran ahead of time. <\/p>\n

The trader\u2019s win rate on larger bets approached 90% \u2014 far above what would normally be expected in a market driven by uncertainty.<\/p>\n

The accounts remain anonymous, and some still held open positions as of Monday. <\/p>\n

The analysis does not prove insider trading, but the pattern is hard to ignore.<\/p>\n

More importantly, it connects directly to the broader debate now playing out in Congress and among regulators: whether prediction markets reward access to information that is not yet public.<\/p>\n

Three Bills in Five Days<\/h3>\n

\nBetween March 23 and March 26, several legislative proposals targeting prediction markets were introduced in Congress.\n<\/p>\n

\nOn March 23, Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, which would ban CFTC-registered platforms from offering sports and casino-style contracts. The bill has also been backed by the Indian Gaming Association<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cPublic service should not be a pathway to private gain,\u201d said Senator Curtis. \u201cOur bipartisan legislation ensures that insider trading rules apply to prediction markets and removes any ambiguity in how those rules are enforced\u2014underscoring a basic expectation that those entrusted with sensitive information cannot use it for personal profit.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nOn March 25, a bipartisan House bill<\/a> proposed banning members of Congress, the president, and executive branch officials from trading on political event contracts.<\/p>\n

On March 26, a group led by Senators Jeff Merkley and Elizabeth Warren introduced the STOP Corrupt Bets Act. Representative Jamie Raskin joined the effort. The bill covers elections, government actions, military conflicts, and sports.<\/p>\n

\n

If you\u2019re writing the laws, you shouldn\u2019t be playing the market. This is basic stuff. I have a bill that finally bans members of Congress from trading stocks. No loopholes. No exceptions.<\/p>\n

\u2014 Senator Mark Kelly (@SenMarkKelly) March 23, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\nAt the same time, more than 20 state-level lawsuits are running alongside the federal activity.<\/p>\n

Kalshi responded to the Schiff\u2013Curtis bill by calling it an attempt to protect traditional gambling interests from competition. <\/p>\n

A VC Fund, Two Rivals, One Cap Table
\n<\/h3>\n

\nA new venture fund, 5(c) Capital, has raised $35 million<\/a> to invest in prediction markets infrastructure.<\/p>\n

What stands out is who is backing it. <\/p>\n

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan \u2014 competitors \u2014 are both involved. So are investors tied to firms like Andreessen Horowitz and Ribbit Capital, two names closely associated with major fintech and crypto bets.\n<\/p>\n

\nThe fund is focused on building the underlying plumbing of the market \u2014 market-making, data, and index products \u2014 rather than consumer platforms.<\/p>\n

The signal is simple: even as platforms compete, capital is being deployed around the infrastructure that supports them. <\/p>\n

Quote of the Week
\n<\/h2>\n

\nTarek Mansour, Kalshi CEO and co-founder, reacted on X to the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act introduced by Senators Schiff and Curtis on March 23.<\/p>\n

\n
\n

Casino lobby hard at work.<\/p>\n

There is a reason tens of millions of people use regulated prediction markets: it\u2019s a better product.<\/p>\n

Banning just pushes this offshore, where no regulation exists.<\/p>\n

This bill isn\u2019t about protecting consumers; it\u2019s about protecting monopolies. https:\/\/t.co\/otzm0U4Te8<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\u2014 Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) March 23, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Number of the Week
\n<\/h2>\n

$500,000
\n<\/strong>
\nThat\u2019s the threshold above which prediction market traders start making money.<\/p>\n

According to a recent analysis<\/a>, only the highest-volume participants \u2014 those with more than $500,000 in activity \u2014 recorded positive returns. Smaller accounts consistently lost money.<\/p>\n

The Friction of the Week<\/p>\n<\/h2>\n

\nOn Monday March 23, Kalshi announced it would preemptively block athletes, coaches, political candidates, and sports officials from trading contracts related to their own events.<\/p>\n

\n
\n

Two new guardrails:<\/p>\n

1. Screen and block politicians from trading on their own campaigns.<\/p>\n

2. Screen and block athletes from trading on their own leagues. <\/p>\n

We already banned, monitored, and enforced against it. <\/p>\n

Now our systems also look to block it pre-trade. https:\/\/t.co\/HThqrvmZ2B<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\u2014 Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) March 23, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Polymarket published updated market integrity rules<\/a> the same day, clarifying that users cannot trade on stolen confidential information, illegal tips, or contracts where they can influence the outcome. Neal Kumar, Polymarket’s chief legal officer, described the changes as making “expectations abundantly clear.”\n<\/p>\n

\nTwo days later, Senators Schiff and Curtis appeared on CNBC’s Squawk Box and rejected these measures as insufficient. Schiff said the companies “cannot be relied upon to self-regulate” and pointed to the suspected insider trading around Iran war bets.<\/p>\n

\n

A bipartisan group of Senators creating the “Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act” aiming at limiting the platforms’ reach. Authors @SenAdamSchiff<\/a> & @SenJohnCurtis<\/a> outline the details:https:\/\/t.co\/lGYZQ6opbd<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) March 25, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The disagreement is structural. Kalshi and Polymarket argue that existing CFTC oversight and their own rules already prohibit the conduct legislators are targeting. Legislators argue that enforcement is toothless, blockchain anonymity prevents tracing, and the platforms have a business incentive to look the other way. <\/p>\n

Arizona filed 20 criminal counts against Kalshi on March 16. A Nevada court issued a 14-day temporary restraining order on Kalshi’s sports contracts on March 20. The platforms are calling these state actions pre-empted by federal law. <\/p>\n

Bottom Line
\n<\/h2>\n

\nThis week brought together several threads that have been building for some time.<\/p>\n

A trader with an unusually high win rate drew attention to how information moves through these markets. Congress responded with multiple bills. Platforms updated their rules. Courts in two states moved against Kalshi.\n<\/p>\n

\nWhat becomes clear is that each part of the system is moving at its own pace.<\/p>\n

Platforms react in hours, rewriting rules as events unfold. Legislators move in weeks, introducing overlapping proposals. Regulators move in months, opening comment periods and building formal frameworks. Courts move case by case.\n<\/p>\n

\nThe market, meanwhile, doesn\u2019t wait.<\/p>\n

Prediction markets were built to price uncertainty.
\nNow they are being shaped by the rules that try to contain them.\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Prediction markets kept moving this week.<\/p>\n

Trading continues, positions are opened and closed, and the machinery keeps running. On the surface, it still looks like business as usual, but it doesn’t.<\/p>\n

Singapore Summit: Meet the largest APAC brokers you know (and those you still don’t!)<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

\nMore attention is shifting to how these markets handle information. Questions around insider trading, new legislation, and changes in platform rules are starting to converge around the same point: who gets to act on information, and when.\n<\/p>\n

\nHere\u2019s what mattered this week. <\/p>\n

What Moved the Prediction Markets This Week <\/h2>\n

Behind the $967K Trade
\n<\/h3>\n

\nAn investigation published<\/a> by CNN this week pointed to a pattern that has been discussed for months, but rarely documented this clearly.<\/p>\n

Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps identified a cluster of linked accounts it believes are controlled by a single trader, who made nearly $967,000 on Polymarket by repeatedly betting on U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran ahead of time. <\/p>\n

The trader\u2019s win rate on larger bets approached 90% \u2014 far above what would normally be expected in a market driven by uncertainty.<\/p>\n

The accounts remain anonymous, and some still held open positions as of Monday. <\/p>\n

The analysis does not prove insider trading, but the pattern is hard to ignore.<\/p>\n

More importantly, it connects directly to the broader debate now playing out in Congress and among regulators: whether prediction markets reward access to information that is not yet public.<\/p>\n

Three Bills in Five Days<\/h3>\n

\nBetween March 23 and March 26, several legislative proposals targeting prediction markets were introduced in Congress.\n<\/p>\n

\nOn March 23, Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, which would ban CFTC-registered platforms from offering sports and casino-style contracts. The bill has also been backed by the Indian Gaming Association<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cPublic service should not be a pathway to private gain,\u201d said Senator Curtis. \u201cOur bipartisan legislation ensures that insider trading rules apply to prediction markets and removes any ambiguity in how those rules are enforced\u2014underscoring a basic expectation that those entrusted with sensitive information cannot use it for personal profit.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nOn March 25, a bipartisan House bill<\/a> proposed banning members of Congress, the president, and executive branch officials from trading on political event contracts.<\/p>\n

On March 26, a group led by Senators Jeff Merkley and Elizabeth Warren introduced the STOP Corrupt Bets Act. Representative Jamie Raskin joined the effort. The bill covers elections, government actions, military conflicts, and sports.<\/p>\n

\n

If you\u2019re writing the laws, you shouldn\u2019t be playing the market. This is basic stuff. I have a bill that finally bans members of Congress from trading stocks. No loopholes. No exceptions.<\/p>\n

\u2014 Senator Mark Kelly (@SenMarkKelly) March 23, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\nAt the same time, more than 20 state-level lawsuits are running alongside the federal activity.<\/p>\n

Kalshi responded to the Schiff\u2013Curtis bill by calling it an attempt to protect traditional gambling interests from competition. <\/p>\n

A VC Fund, Two Rivals, One Cap Table
\n<\/h3>\n

\nA new venture fund, 5(c) Capital, has raised $35 million<\/a> to invest in prediction markets infrastructure.<\/p>\n

What stands out is who is backing it. <\/p>\n

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan \u2014 competitors \u2014 are both involved. So are investors tied to firms like Andreessen Horowitz and Ribbit Capital, two names closely associated with major fintech and crypto bets.\n<\/p>\n

\nThe fund is focused on building the underlying plumbing of the market \u2014 market-making, data, and index products \u2014 rather than consumer platforms.<\/p>\n

The signal is simple: even as platforms compete, capital is being deployed around the infrastructure that supports them. <\/p>\n

Quote of the Week
\n<\/h2>\n

\nTarek Mansour, Kalshi CEO and co-founder, reacted on X to the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act introduced by Senators Schiff and Curtis on March 23.<\/p>\n

\n
\n

Casino lobby hard at work.<\/p>\n

There is a reason tens of millions of people use regulated prediction markets: it\u2019s a better product.<\/p>\n

Banning just pushes this offshore, where no regulation exists.<\/p>\n

This bill isn\u2019t about protecting consumers; it\u2019s about protecting monopolies. https:\/\/t.co\/otzm0U4Te8<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\u2014 Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) March 23, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Number of the Week
\n<\/h2>\n

$500,000
\n<\/strong>
\nThat\u2019s the threshold above which prediction market traders start making money.<\/p>\n

According to a recent analysis<\/a>, only the highest-volume participants \u2014 those with more than $500,000 in activity \u2014 recorded positive returns. Smaller accounts consistently lost money.<\/p>\n

The Friction of the Week<\/p>\n<\/h2>\n

\nOn Monday March 23, Kalshi announced it would preemptively block athletes, coaches, political candidates, and sports officials from trading contracts related to their own events.<\/p>\n

\n
\n

Two new guardrails:<\/p>\n

1. Screen and block politicians from trading on their own campaigns.<\/p>\n

2. Screen and block athletes from trading on their own leagues. <\/p>\n

We already banned, monitored, and enforced against it. <\/p>\n

Now our systems also look to block it pre-trade. https:\/\/t.co\/HThqrvmZ2B<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\u2014 Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) March 23, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Polymarket published updated market integrity rules<\/a> the same day, clarifying that users cannot trade on stolen confidential information, illegal tips, or contracts where they can influence the outcome. Neal Kumar, Polymarket’s chief legal officer, described the changes as making “expectations abundantly clear.”\n<\/p>\n

\nTwo days later, Senators Schiff and Curtis appeared on CNBC’s Squawk Box and rejected these measures as insufficient. Schiff said the companies “cannot be relied upon to self-regulate” and pointed to the suspected insider trading around Iran war bets.<\/p>\n

\n

A bipartisan group of Senators creating the “Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act” aiming at limiting the platforms’ reach. Authors @SenAdamSchiff<\/a> & @SenJohnCurtis<\/a> outline the details:https:\/\/t.co\/lGYZQ6opbd<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) March 25, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The disagreement is structural. Kalshi and Polymarket argue that existing CFTC oversight and their own rules already prohibit the conduct legislators are targeting. Legislators argue that enforcement is toothless, blockchain anonymity prevents tracing, and the platforms have a business incentive to look the other way. <\/p>\n

Arizona filed 20 criminal counts against Kalshi on March 16. A Nevada court issued a 14-day temporary restraining order on Kalshi’s sports contracts on March 20. The platforms are calling these state actions pre-empted by federal law. <\/p>\n

Bottom Line
\n<\/h2>\n

\nThis week brought together several threads that have been building for some time.<\/p>\n

A trader with an unusually high win rate drew attention to how information moves through these markets. Congress responded with multiple bills. Platforms updated their rules. Courts in two states moved against Kalshi.\n<\/p>\n

\nWhat becomes clear is that each part of the system is moving at its own pace.<\/p>\n

Platforms react in hours, rewriting rules as events unfold. Legislators move in weeks, introducing overlapping proposals. Regulators move in months, opening comment periods and building formal frameworks. Courts move case by case.\n<\/p>\n

\nThe market, meanwhile, doesn\u2019t wait.<\/p>\n

Prediction markets were built to price uncertainty.
\nNow they are being shaped by the rules that try to contain them.\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Read More<\/a>
\n Tanya Chepkova<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Prediction markets kept moving this week. Trading continues, positions are opened and closed, and the machinery keeps running. On the surface, it still looks like business as usual, but it doesn’t. Singapore Summit: Meet the largest APAC brokers you know (and those you still don’t!) More attention is shifting to how these markets handle information.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":894991,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[118,28724],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-894990","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-inside","8":"category-prediction"},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/894990","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=894990"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/894990\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894991"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=894990"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=894990"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=894990"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}