Half of the months over the past two years have delivered positive returns for Bitcoin, which may be a strong sign that it will be higher than its current price in December, an economist said.<\/p>\n
\u201c50% of the past 24 months have been positive. This implies an 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now,\u201d economist Timothy Peterson said<\/a> in an X post on Saturday. He did not provide details of the statistical model behind the estimate.<\/p>\n In 2025, Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) posted gains in January, April, May, June, July, and September, while the other six months ended lower, according to CoinGlass.<\/p>\n Peterson explained that he uses the metric to count the number of positive months in any 24-month period to identify possible inflection points.<\/p>\n Ten months from the time of publication lands on Dec. 22. Traders on crypto prediction platform Polymarket are giving December a 17% chance of being Bitcoin\u2019s best month of 2026, just behind November at 18%. <\/p>\n Historically, November has been Bitcoin\u2019s strongest-performing month on average since 2013, with an average return of 41.13%, according to CoinGlass.<\/p>\n Peterson\u2019s forecast comes as Bitcoin\u2019s price trades almost 25% below its level at the beginning of this year, at $68,173 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap. <\/p>\n Analysts are divided on how the asset will perform in the near future. MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said<\/a> on Friday, \u201cI would expect next week to be green for <\/a>BTC.\u201d \u201cFinalizing this month with a massive candle and a streak of five red months,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, other analysts see more downside ahead. Veteran trader Peter Brand recently told Magazine<\/a> that Bitcoin\u2019s \u201creal bottom will not occur until October 2026.\u201d<\/p>\n Related: <\/strong><\/em>Crypto market retraces almost all 2024-2025 US election pump gains<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n Peterson\u2019s forecast comes as crypto market sentiment continues to decline. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, posted an \u201cExtreme Fear\u201d score of 9 on Sunday, signaling extreme caution among investors.<\/p>\n However, crypto sentiment platform Santiment said on Friday<\/a> that the \u201cdrying up\u201d of Bitcoin price predictions on social media among crypto market participants is a healthy indicator as sentiment returns to \u201cneutral\u201d territory.<\/p>\n Magazine: <\/strong><\/em>6 massive challenges Bitcoin faces on the road to quantum security<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n <\/template><\/div>\n Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph\u2019s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/editorial-policy<\/a><\/p>\n![\"bitcoins](\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2026-02\/019c8350-e177-7708-946c-08edf70784d9.png\")
![\"bitcoins](\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2026-02\/019c834e-f555-7df3-8ce0-4403e747fb2c.png\")