{"id":891928,"date":"2026-02-12T05:19:14","date_gmt":"2026-02-12T11:19:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/2026\/02\/12\/looking-ahead-to-when-gas-stations-vanish\/"},"modified":"2026-02-12T05:19:14","modified_gmt":"2026-02-12T11:19:14","slug":"looking-ahead-to-when-gas-stations-vanish","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/2026\/02\/12\/looking-ahead-to-when-gas-stations-vanish\/","title":{"rendered":"Looking Ahead to When Gas Stations Vanish"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Sooner than you think, your city may be down to its last gas station, or, in large cities, the last few gas stations.<\/p>\n

They likely will be owned or heavily subsidized by the government because few businesses can be profitable selling a product whose demand is no longer growing.<\/p>\n

When will this happen? In regions with high penetration of electric vehicles, such as parts of California, it could be as soon as the mid-2030s.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m describing a near future in which electric transportation is becoming the market leader, but gasoline still has a share, albeit a declining one.<\/p>\n

Researchers have been saying for years that leaders need to plan ahead to reduce the harm that will follow when fossil fuel supply chains are hit by resource shortages, price spikes and business failures tied to falling demand. My main question, especially in this era of \u201cdrill, baby, drill,\u201d is whether enough people are paying attention.<\/p>\n

A new paper<\/a> in the journal Science lays out the situation. I spoke with the authors, both of the University of Notre Dame: Emily Grubert, a professor of sustainable energy policy, and Joshua Lappen, a historian and engineer. (I\u2019ve interviewed Grubert over the years about her work on improving decision-making about energy infrastructure, and she was deputy assistant secretary for carbon management at the U.S. Department of Energy from 2021 to 2022.)<\/p>\n

I asked how we can anticipate the timetable for when fossil fuel infrastructure will hit its downward spiral.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt depends on which system we\u2019re talking about,\u201d Grubert said. \u201cThere are some systems where we\u2019re already there.\u201d<\/p>\n

Grubert cites an example that\u2019s not fossil fuels, which is the steel industry in the United Kingdom. With the closure of some of the U.K.\u2019s final privately held steel mills, the government last year approved an emergency takeover<\/a> of the final factory that produces primary steel, as part of a plan to preserve jobs and ensure there is some locally made steel to serve the country\u2019s basic needs.<\/p>\n

In the United States, the rising market share of EVs in some states and regions is already undercutting demand for fossil-fuel infrastructure. In California, fuel refineries are closing due to falling demand and the costs of complying with environmental regulations.<\/p>\n

As refineries close, leaving fewer of them to serve a larger territory and ship fuel over longer distances, costs are likely to increase. This would make it more difficult for gas stations to remain viable.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are a lot of different factors that could lead to disproportionate closures all of the sudden at gas stations,\u201d Lappen said. \u201cYou can\u2019t go below a certain minimum density of gas stations.\u201d<\/p>\n

Some observers may scoff at the idea that the end of gas stations may be near, partly because forecasts indicate that global oil demand will increase over the next two decades. For example, the International Energy Agency said in November that it expects oil demand to increase gradually<\/a> through 2050 under the \u201ccurrent policies scenario.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Co-authors Emily Grubert and Joshua Lappen of the University of Notre Dame.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

I asked Grubert and Lappen how to reconcile the reality they see on the horizon with the idea that oil demand continues to grow.<\/p>\n

Grubert said the models would be close to correct if the world does little additional to address climate change, but she doesn\u2019t think that will happen.<\/p>\n

Lappen finds fault with the ways that many energy system forecasts are constructed, including their inability to predict how and when small shifts in demand can have major effects. He thinks the continued viability of fossil fuel industries depends on steady demand to cover ongoing costs. If demand slows by much, many companies aren\u2019t built to survive.<\/p>\n

Lappen\u2019s larger point is that gasoline retailers may face a cascade of challenges sooner than their operators realize. This becomes a social concern if the fueling infrastructure fades faster than the gasoline vehicle market share, leaving consumers struggling to find affordable fuel to get to their jobs and live their lives.<\/p>\n

One easy way to misinterpret Grubert and Lappen\u2019s paper is to say that it\u2019s calling for the energy transition to slow down. If anything, it\u2019s saying the opposite, calling attention to problems that occur when a new technology is rising and the old one is reluctant to leave the stage.<\/p>\n

At the same time, U.S. policymakers and fossil fuel industries are doing just about everything they can to prolong this period. This has real costs, as can be seen in the auto industry, where companies such as General Motors and Ford must build and sell full lineups of gasoline-powered vehicles, while competitors can focus more on EVs.<\/p>\n

When I say \u201cgas station,\u201d I mean a business that sells gasoline. Most gas stations are also convenience stores and make most of their revenue from selling food, drinks and other in-store products. Convenience stores will continue to exist after gasoline, whether they are gigantic destinations along highways or small outlets on street corners. But if someone needs gasoline, they may have difficulty finding it.<\/p>\n

To gain insight into the convenience store industry\u2019s perspective, I spoke with Jeff Lenard, vice president for media and communications at NACS, a national trade group for convenience stores and fuel retailers. He\u2019s been with the association since the late 1990s, so he has seen decades of change in food, fuel, payment systems and other aspects of the business.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe convenience store industry is continually under flux,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

But he doesn\u2019t think there is a danger of gasoline sales plummeting in the near future. Even if EVs were to dominate sales of new vehicles right now, he said, it would still take about two decades for the country\u2019s vehicle fleet to entirely shift away from liquid fuels.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s a long runway,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Also, the demand changes for gasoline will vary significantly across the world and within this country.<\/p>\n

\u201cI talked to one retailer in North Dakota, and he said, \u2018If we see an EV at our lot, we are 100 percent certain that it has out-of-state plates,\u2019\u201d Lenard said.<\/p>\n

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As I see it, the main difference between Lenard\u2019s view and that of Grubert and Lappen is in the length of the runway. The paper argues that even small reductions in fuel demand can cause fossil-fuel infrastructure to go awry.<\/p>\n

My final question for Grubert and Lappen was: What advice would they give governments on preparing for a major contraction in gas stations and other fossil-fuel industries?<\/p>\n

\u201cFirst of all, I think we need to start planning for public ownership of some of these systems,\u201d Lappen said.<\/p>\n

Lappen\u2019s not suggesting a government takeover of successful businesses. Instead, he\u2019s saying that the government needs to have a plan to step in when it becomes clear that parts of fossil fuel supply chains are getting close to failing. This is essential to make sure that local economies have access to the resources they need, and to ensure an orderly wind-down as demand continues to fall.<\/p>\n

\u201cA lot of these systems are going to be necessary long after they\u2019re profitable,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Grubert said a government-run system would prioritize the public good rather than rationing products or services to customers based on the ability to pay.<\/p>\n

\u201cSo, if I\u2019m really worried about delivering heat in the winter, that\u2019s going to tell me something about the order and the timing with which I shut down different kinds of assets, and the order and the timing with which I build new replacement infrastructure,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

When should governments begin to make plans? Ideally, they would have started already, but since that hasn\u2019t happened to a significant extent, the answer is, \u201cRight now.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Other stories about the energy transition to take note of this week:<\/p>\n

The Trump Administration Goes 0-5 in Attempts to Stop Work on Offshore Wind:<\/strong> A judge this week cleared the Sunrise Wind project off of Long Island to resume construction, approving a preliminary injunction against the Trump administration\u2019s stop-work order from December. With this decision, the administration has now lost in court for each of the five projects covered by the order, as Diana DiGangi reports for Utility Dive<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Budget Bill Slashes EV Charging:<\/strong> The budget bill signed by President Donald Trump this week to end the partial government shutdown contains a cut of about $500 million in funding for the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure, or NEVI, program, the country\u2019s largest-ever initiative to install EV charging stations, as I report this week for ICN<\/a>. The funding cut, which is part of about $900 million in cuts to clean transportation, is the latest effort in the Trump administration\u2019s push to defund programs from the Biden administration that support electric transportation.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s How California Factories Can Use Abundant Solar Power:<\/strong> Experts are looking at policy changes and other fixes that could help California factories to make greater use of solar power in their operations, as Maria Gallucci reports for Canary Media<\/a>. California has plentiful solar power, but some industrial users are reluctant to rely heavily on electricity because the state has unusually high rates. One potential solution is for utilities to design rates that give discounts for electricity used during the sunniest hours.<\/p>\n

Take a Look at Some of the Affordable Chinese EVs that Could Do Well in Canada:<\/strong> As Canada opens its market to EVs made in China, several models are well-suited to succeed in the market, as Kevin Williams reports for InsideEVs.com<\/a>. Among them is the BYD Seagull, a low-cost hatchback. \u201cThe Seagull decimates the competition everywhere it\u2019s sold because of its strong value for money and spacious packaging for such a small car,\u201d Williams writes. (I wrote last month about the implications of the trade deal<\/a>.)<\/p>\n

Inside Clean Energy<\/em><\/a>\u00a0is ICN\u2019s weekly bulletin of news and analysis about the energy transition. Send news tips and questions to\u00a0<\/em>[email\u00a0protected]<\/span><\/em><\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

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About This Story<\/h2>\n

Perhaps you noticed: This story, like all the news we publish, is free to read. That\u2019s because Inside Climate News is a 501c3 nonprofit organization. We do not charge a subscription fee, lock our news behind a paywall, or clutter our website with ads. We make our news on climate and the environment freely available to you and anyone who wants it.<\/p>\n

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Two of us launched ICN in 2007. Six years later we earned a Pulitzer Prize for National Reporting, and now we run the oldest and largest dedicated climate newsroom in the nation. We tell the story in all its complexity. We hold polluters accountable. We expose environmental injustice. We debunk misinformation. We scrutinize solutions and inspire action.<\/p>\n

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Thank you,<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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\n\t\t\t\t\t\tDan Gearino\t\t\t\t\t<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h3>\n

Reporter, Clean Energy<\/h4>\n

Dan Gearino covers the business and policy of renewable energy and utilities, often with an emphasis on the midwestern United States. He is the main author of ICN\u2019s\u00a0<\/span>Inside Clean Energy<\/a>\u00a0newsletter. He came to ICN in 2018 after a nine-year tenure at The Columbus Dispatch, where he covered the business of energy. Before that, he covered politics and business in Iowa and in New Hampshire. He grew up in Warren County, Iowa, just south of Des Moines, and lives in Columbus, Ohio.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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By Dan Gearino
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Sooner than you think, your city may be down to its last gas station, or, in large cities, the last few gas stations. They likely will be owned or heavily subsidized by the government because few businesses can be profitable selling a product whose demand is no longer growing. When will this happen? In regions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":891929,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[860,859],"tags":[5040,7032],"class_list":{"0":"post-891928","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ahead","8":"category-looking","9":"tag-ahead","10":"tag-looking"},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/891928","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=891928"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/891928\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/891929"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=891928"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=891928"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=891928"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}