Despite being nearly 30% down from its all-time high, Bitcoin has kept investors enthusiastic about the possibility of a rebound.<\/p>\n
The asset, trading at $92,231 at the time of this press, sat in a critical zone that continues to fuel the bulls-versus-bears debate.<\/p>\n
Traders widely view this level as a tipping point that could either drive a renewed rally toward $100,000 or trigger a pullback into the $80,000 region. On-chain data and sentiment indicators now offer clearer insight into how investors are positioning themselves.<\/p>\n
Can the one-year change signal the next rally?<\/strong><\/h2>\nBitcoin\u2019s [BTC]<\/a> one-year performance change has historically served as a reliable indicator in identifying the early stages of both bull and bear markets.<\/p>\nAt press time, the one-year performance change stood at -4.5%, suggesting that Bitcoin is not fully in bearish territory yet.<\/p>\n
This modest decline, however, mirrored one of the rarer scenarios seen in a past cycle, where Bitcoin\u2019s one-year price change briefly turned negative before a strong rally followed. A similar setup emerged ahead of the 2021 bull run.<\/p>\n
\n![\"bitcoins](\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/G-VlQ_cWIAELvyK-scaled.jpeg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nSource: Alphractal<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
To put this into perspective, the previous cycle began in March 2020, when Bitcoin bottomed at around $3,782 before rallying to an all-time high of $64,850. That move represented a gain of more than 1,600% within the cycle.<\/p>\n
While a similar magnitude of gains is not guaranteed, a shift in the one-year percentage change back into positive territory could give Bitcoin an edge in making a major upward swing toward a new all-time high.<\/p>\n
However, if the one-year percentage change fails to turn green, it could mark the start of a deeper downtrend and the early stages of another bear market.<\/p>\n
Is the percent change enough to confirm a bear phase?<\/strong><\/h2>\nA sustained negative reading in the yearly percent change will not be the only metric to watch in determining whether Bitcoin is entering a prolonged decline.<\/p>\n
Other technical factors will also play a key role.<\/p>\n
One of these is Bitcoin\u2019s two-year simple moving average, which currently sits around $84,500.<\/p>\n
This level has historically acted as a major indicator of downside risk. Analyst Joao Wedson warned that losing this level significantly increases the probability of capitulation.<\/p>\n
\n![\"bitcoins](\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/DD4D0E13-7CC1-423F-8D65-4D773D8C7BCB.jpeg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nSource: Alphractal<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
An analysis of Bitcoin\u2019s Liquidation Heatmap revealed<\/a> how liquidity clusters are positioned around this SMA support and signals how the price is likely to react.<\/p>\nAt press time, the market showed limited liquidity around the $85,400 region.<\/p>\n
However, traders have stacked substantial liquidity both above and below the aforementioned price level. On the upside, liquidity builds from $86,817 up to the $90,000 zone, while on the downside, it concentrates between $81,609 and $81,733.<\/p>\n
These zones often act as demand areas, as price tends to trade into them before making a decisive move. If the liquidity between $86,000 and $90,000 acts as a catalyst, Bitcoin could swing higher from this range.<\/p>\n
If this region fails to hold, Bitcoin could lose the $84,500 support level and slide toward the $81,000 region, with the risk of further downside.<\/p>\n
Sentiment remains bullish<\/strong><\/h2>\nDespite the technical uncertainty, market sentiment remains largely bullish.<\/p>\n
Community Sentiment indicators, which allow traders and investors to vote on their price outlook, show strong optimism. Currently, around 80% of 5.9 million voters are backing a bullish scenario for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n
While sentiment alone is not enough to confirm a bull market, industry figures are also expressing confidence. Changpeng Zhao, co-founder of Binance, recently posted on X, suggesting that a super cycle could be approaching.<\/p>\n
He wrote,<\/p>\n
\n\u201cI could be wrong, but Super Cycle incoming.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
At press time, the one-year performance change stood at -4.5%, suggesting that Bitcoin is not fully in bearish territory yet.<\/p>\n
This modest decline, however, mirrored one of the rarer scenarios seen in a past cycle, where Bitcoin\u2019s one-year price change briefly turned negative before a strong rally followed. A similar setup emerged ahead of the 2021 bull run.<\/p>\n
Source: Alphractal<\/p>\n<\/div>\n To put this into perspective, the previous cycle began in March 2020, when Bitcoin bottomed at around $3,782 before rallying to an all-time high of $64,850. That move represented a gain of more than 1,600% within the cycle.<\/p>\n While a similar magnitude of gains is not guaranteed, a shift in the one-year percentage change back into positive territory could give Bitcoin an edge in making a major upward swing toward a new all-time high.<\/p>\n However, if the one-year percentage change fails to turn green, it could mark the start of a deeper downtrend and the early stages of another bear market.<\/p>\n A sustained negative reading in the yearly percent change will not be the only metric to watch in determining whether Bitcoin is entering a prolonged decline.<\/p>\n Other technical factors will also play a key role.<\/p>\n One of these is Bitcoin\u2019s two-year simple moving average, which currently sits around $84,500.<\/p>\n This level has historically acted as a major indicator of downside risk. Analyst Joao Wedson warned that losing this level significantly increases the probability of capitulation.<\/p>\n Source: Alphractal<\/p>\n<\/div>\n An analysis of Bitcoin\u2019s Liquidation Heatmap revealed<\/a> how liquidity clusters are positioned around this SMA support and signals how the price is likely to react.<\/p>\n At press time, the market showed limited liquidity around the $85,400 region.<\/p>\n However, traders have stacked substantial liquidity both above and below the aforementioned price level. On the upside, liquidity builds from $86,817 up to the $90,000 zone, while on the downside, it concentrates between $81,609 and $81,733.<\/p>\n These zones often act as demand areas, as price tends to trade into them before making a decisive move. If the liquidity between $86,000 and $90,000 acts as a catalyst, Bitcoin could swing higher from this range.<\/p>\n If this region fails to hold, Bitcoin could lose the $84,500 support level and slide toward the $81,000 region, with the risk of further downside.<\/p>\n Despite the technical uncertainty, market sentiment remains largely bullish.<\/p>\n Community Sentiment indicators, which allow traders and investors to vote on their price outlook, show strong optimism. Currently, around 80% of 5.9 million voters are backing a bullish scenario for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n While sentiment alone is not enough to confirm a bull market, industry figures are also expressing confidence. Changpeng Zhao, co-founder of Binance, recently posted on X, suggesting that a super cycle could be approaching.<\/p>\n He wrote,<\/p>\n \u201cI could be wrong, but Super Cycle incoming.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIs the percent change enough to confirm a bear phase?<\/strong><\/h2>\n
<\/a><\/p>\nSentiment remains bullish<\/strong><\/h2>\n
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