Bitcon ended 2025 lower than it began, marking the first time it\u2019s fallen in a post-halving year. <\/p>\n
Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) halvings occur every four years, when mining rewards are cut in half and fewer new coins enter the market. Historically, this has resulted in a cycle of accumulation: a post-halving bull run<\/a> that peaks, followed by a sharp correction and a multi-year bear market.<\/p>\n After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin spiked to end the following year at a new high; a similar<\/a> pattern played out in 2016 and again in 2020.\u00a0<\/p>\n However, the pattern has broken this time.\u00a0<\/p>\n Despite the latest halving being in April 2024<\/a>, Bitcoin is now trading down more than 30% from its all-time high of $126,080, set on Oct 6 and ending the year lower than it began, according<\/a> to data from CoinGecko.<\/p>\n The four-year cycle has frequently been used to predict and analyze how the crypto markets will broadly act.<\/p>\n Vivek Sen, the founder of Bitcoin public relations firm Bitgrow Lab, said<\/a> in an X post on Wednesday that Bitcoin was ending the year down, which shows the four-cycle is now \u201cOfficially dead.\u201d<\/p>\n Meanwhile, investor Armando Pantoja shared<\/a> a similar view, attributing it to the influx of new institutions and traders.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Market Has New Players, crypto isn\u2019t 2016 or 2020 anymore. ETFs, institutions, and corporate balance sheets don\u2019t trade like hype-driven retail. Bitcoin Trades macro now BTC reacts to liquidity, rates, regulation, and geopolitics, not a perfect halving calendar,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Related: <\/strong><\/em>Bitcoin\u2019s 4-year cycle may not be dead after all: Glassnode<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n Pantoja added that the halving still matters in the grand scheme, but the \u201csupply is increasingly locked, miners have financing options, and price dynamics aren\u2019t as automatic as before.\u201d<\/p>\n Crypto executives, including ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes<\/a> and Bitwise\u2019s Matt Hougan and Hunter Horsley, had said throughout 2025 that the four-year cycle was a thing of the past.<\/p>\n <\/template><\/p>\n However, some industry figures argue it’s alive<\/a>, just playing out differently than in previous years.\u00a0<\/p>\n Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, said during a December edition<\/a> of The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast that the cycle remains intact, but it is no longer dictated by programmed supply cuts.<\/p>\n Magazine: <\/strong><\/em>Big questions: Would Bitcoin survive a 10-year power outage?<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n <\/template><\/div>\n Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph\u2019s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/editorial-policy<\/a><\/p>\n![\"bitcoins](\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2026-01\/019b7834-f2f9-7ff7-8855-98f9c16345fe.png\")
Bitcoins Analysts tipped death of four-year cycle for months<\/h2>\n
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Bitcoins Other crypto execs split on four-year cycle<\/h2>\n