{"id":884763,"date":"2026-01-13T08:14:01","date_gmt":"2026-01-13T14:14:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/13\/no-breakout-yet-why-bitcoin-traders-are-on-the-defensive-before-the-new-year\/"},"modified":"2026-01-13T08:14:01","modified_gmt":"2026-01-13T14:14:01","slug":"no-breakout-yet-why-bitcoin-traders-are-on-the-defensive-before-the-new-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/13\/no-breakout-yet-why-bitcoin-traders-are-on-the-defensive-before-the-new-year\/","title":{"rendered":"No breakout yet \u2013 Why Bitcoin traders are on the defensive before the New Year"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoins <\/p>\n

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\"bitcoins<\/p>\n

Journalist<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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Posted:

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Bitcoin is on the verge of closing 2025 in the red if it fails to close above $94k by New Year\u2019s Eve. <\/span><\/p>\n

The oldest and largest cryptocurrency has declined by 5.7% in 2025. It recorded a lacklustre performance during Christmas week, while the U.S equities market rallied to new highs.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

And traders are now cautious, with some worried that the muted <\/span>Bitcoin<\/span><\/a> performance may extend into early January.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Bitcoins Near-term BTC caution<\/h2>\n

According to the Options analytics platform Leavitas<\/a>, short-term positioning implied choppy markets, with a preference for downside protection among sophisticated players.<\/span><\/p>\n

This was illustrated by the 1-week 25-Delta Risk Reversal (RR, orange) drop, underscoring renewed demand for hedging or puts (bearish bets).\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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\"bitcoins<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: X\/Laevitas<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

In fact, all the tenors (1 week to 1 year) were negative, implying that institutions preferred hedging over betting on a sharp upside or breakout scenario.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For a positive shift in market sentiment and renewed bullish momentum, the 25-Delta RR should ease back to 0 or turn positive.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

According to Singapore-based crypto trading desk, <\/span>QCP Capital<\/span><\/a>, a firm direction for BTC could be formed after liquidity returns.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u201cWith open interest down roughly 50% post-expiry (Dec 26), conviction remains limited. Capital is sidelined, and direction likely waits for liquidity to return.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Bitcoins Institutional BTC demand wanes<\/h2>\n

The cautious positioning in the Options market also reflected a similar trend in institutional demand. In late 2025, U.S Spot ETF <\/span>outflows<\/span><\/a> hit a total of $5.5 billion \u2013 The highest since they debuted in 2024.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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\"bitcoins<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: CryptoQuant<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

However, the outflows appeared to be driven by hedge funds exiting positions after the lucrative basis trade yield dropped by half from 10% to 5%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In fact, cumulative inflows into the ETFs were only down 9% from their October high of $62 billion. Put differently, there is still some long-term conviction among most ETF holders despite the Q4 drawdown.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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Source: Bloomberg\/Galaxy Research\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

That being said, the Q4 2025 market rout has been accelerated by several factors, including the 10 October crash and the MSCI index review of BTC treasury firms.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

With the risk of MSCI delisting Strategy still high at +75% in Q1 2025, the market could remain range-bound until the outcome in mid-January.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For its part, BTC has remained pinned below $90,000 since mid-December, with an overhead resistance at $94,000. This sideways structure may extend into early January.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\"bitcoins<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: BTC\/USDT, TradingView<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Bitcoins \u00a0Final Thoughts<\/h2>\n