{"id":884245,"date":"2026-01-11T07:23:44","date_gmt":"2026-01-11T13:23:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/11\/bitcoin-risks-first-post-halving-year-red-candle-with-price-stuck-at-88k\/"},"modified":"2026-01-11T07:23:44","modified_gmt":"2026-01-11T13:23:44","slug":"bitcoin-risks-first-post-halving-year-red-candle-with-price-stuck-at-88k","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/11\/bitcoin-risks-first-post-halving-year-red-candle-with-price-stuck-at-88k\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin risks first post-halving year red candle with price stuck at $88K"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoins <\/p>\n<div data-testid=\"html-renderer-container\">\n<p data-ct-non-breakable=\"undefined\">Bitcoin (<a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/bitcoin-price\">BTC<\/a>) eyed weekend highs into Sunday\u2019s weekly close with the yearly candle in focus.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Key points:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p data-ct-non-breakable=\"undefined\">Bitcoin sees an eerily calm weekend as analysis eyes a three-day bullish divergence locking in.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>It may take until the new year for capital to redeploy and the BTC price situation to change.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p data-ct-non-breakable=\"undefined\">Bitcoin is down 6% for the year, potentially marking a bearish post-halving record.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Bitcoins New year could bring $100,000 BTC price<\/h2>\n<p data-ct-non-breakable=\"undefined\">Data from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/BTCUSD\/?exchange=BITSTAMP\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">TradingView<\/a> showed BTC price action nearing $88,000 after two days of barely any volatility.<\/p>\n<figure>    <img decoding=\"async\" alt src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2025-12\/019b64a1-a933-7a24-ad55-c7e8aeb8a264.png\" title><figcaption><em>BTC\/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph\/TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Friday had seen <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-hunts-liquidity-us-cpi-inflation-lowest-since-2021\">familiar fakeout moves<\/a> as liquidity hunts accompanied a record $24 billion options expiry event. As <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-due-gains-record-24b-options-expiry-lifts-lid-btc-price\">Cointelegraph reported<\/a>, this was thought to be acting as a suppressing force on price.<\/p>\n<p>Now, bullish arguments included a key relative strength index (<a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/here-s-3-ways-the-relative-strength-index-rsi-can-be-used-as-a-sell-signal\" rel target=\"_self\" title=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/here-s-3-ways-the-relative-strength-index-rsi-can-be-used-as-a-sell-signal\">RSI<\/a>) divergence on three-day timeframes.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBitcoin locked in a three-day bullish divergence, right on top of key support,\u201d trader Jelle wrote in an <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CryptoJelleNL\/status\/2004898903926407677\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">X post<\/a> on the topic.\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable=\"undefined\"><p>\u201cThe previous two bottoms formed with 3-day divergences as well. Time for history to repeat?\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<figure>    <img decoding=\"async\" alt src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2025-12\/019b649c-8264-78f0-b02e-f7b188c1bb7d.png\" title><figcaption><em>BTC\/USD three-day chart with RSI data. Source: Jelle\/X<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Trader BitBull put faith in seasonality when it came to a BTC price rebound. Institutions, he argued, would begin allocating capital to &#8220;underperforming assets\u201d in early January.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis could trigger a breakout from this trendline and a move towards $100K will happen,\u201d he predicted Friday.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<div lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow\">$BTC<\/a> has probably 5-6 days of sideways price action left.<\/p>\n<p>As 2025 ends, this is what going to happen:<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Those who sold at a loss for tax harvesting will buyback BTC<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Investors will allocate into underperforming assets in Jan 2026 as they always do.<\/p>\n<p>This could trigger a\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/3NejU5j2do\" rel=\"nofollow\">pic.twitter.com\/3NejU5j2do<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u2014 BitBull (@AkaBull_) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AkaBull_\/status\/2004606517602045969?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow\">December 26, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Trader and analyst Aksel Kibar was unsurprised by Bitcoin\u2019s range-bound behavior and lack of volatility given the sharp upside during Q3.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cVolatility is cyclical,\u201d he <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/TechCharts\/status\/2005151949180833987\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"https:\/\/x.com\/TechCharts\/status\/2005151949180833987\">told<\/a> X followers.\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable=\"undefined\"><p>\u201cHigh volatility is now followed by low volatility until we find a clean chart pattern setup to capitalize on.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<figure>    <img decoding=\"async\" alt src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2025-12\/019b649d-5111-7ab9-a64d-0a8650d0bad3.png\" title><figcaption><em>BTC\/USD one-day chart. Source: Aksel Kibar\/X<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Bitcoins Bitcoin yearly candle challenges four-year cycle<\/h2>\n<p data-ct-non-breakable=\"undefined\">With days to go until the 2025 yearly candle close, Bitcoin still risked making bearish history.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Related: <\/strong><\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-etfs-lose-825m-in-five-days-us-biggest-seller-of-btc\"><em><strong>Bitcoin ETFs lose $825M in five days as US becomes &#8216;biggest seller&#8217; of BTC<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Currently down 6.1% year-to-date, BTC\/USD was on track for its first \u201cred\u201d post-halving year in history.<\/p>\n<p>This led some to argue that the concept of BTC price action moving in four-year cycles no longer matched reality.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<div lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\n<p>Bitcoin has 4 days left to close the yearly candle green<\/p>\n<p>If it closes in red then it would be the first in 14 years for a 3rd bull-market year&#8230;.signaling a structural shift and breaking the 4-year cycle thesis <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/JjQ8QVtC6f\" rel=\"nofollow\">pic.twitter.com\/JjQ8QVtC6f<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u2014 Ajay Kashyap (@EverythingAjay) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/EverythingAjay\/status\/2004896069210308951?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow\">December 27, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Keith Alan, cofounder of trading resource Material Indicators, suggested that the yearly candle\u2019s color would be of major importance.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWicks beyond key levels are to be expected &#8211; it\u2019s closes that matter most,\u201d he <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/KAProductions\/status\/2003947579391021093\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">wrote<\/a> on Christmas Day alongside a chart from one of Material Indicators\u2019 proprietary trading tools.\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable=\"undefined\"><p>\u201cKeeping with the holiday spirit, I\u2019m most interested in whether or not we see a red or green candle to close Q4 and the Year, and I\u2019ll be looking for new macro insights from Trend Precognition at the January open.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<figure>    <img decoding=\"async\" title=\"bitcoins\" alt=\"bitcoins\" alt src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2025-12\/019b649e-a304-74f6-b1cd-5dcae9dca419.png\" title><figcaption><em>BTC\/USD 12-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph\/TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Alan said that the yearly open around $93,500 could still come in for a last-minute retest.<\/p>\n<p data-ct-non-breakable=\"undefined\" type>This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.<\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\" data-ct-non-breakable=\"undefined\" label=\"Subscription Form: Markets Outlook\"><\/template><\/div>\n<p data-testid=\"post-category-disclaimer\"><span>This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> Cointelegraph by William Suberg <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-risks-post-halving-year-red-candle-price-stuck-88k?utm_source=rss_feed&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound\" class=\"button purchase\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin (BTC) eyed weekend highs into Sunday\u2019s weekly close with the yearly candle in focus. Key points: Bitcoin sees an eerily calm weekend as analysis eyes a three-day bullish divergence locking in. It may take until the new year for capital to redeploy and the BTC price situation to change. Bitcoin is down 6% for<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":884246,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4041,27901],"tags":[11476],"class_list":["post-884245","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bitcoin","category-risks","tag-bitcoins"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/884245","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=884245"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/884245\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/884246"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=884245"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=884245"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=884245"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}