{"id":880730,"date":"2025-12-26T01:12:25","date_gmt":"2025-12-26T07:12:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/26\/bitcoin-signals-covid-era-risk-reward-setup-again-bitwise-analyst\/"},"modified":"2025-12-26T01:12:25","modified_gmt":"2025-12-26T07:12:25","slug":"bitcoin-signals-covid-era-risk-reward-setup-again-bitwise-analyst","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/26\/bitcoin-signals-covid-era-risk-reward-setup-again-bitwise-analyst\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Signals \u201cCOVID-Era\u201d Risk-Reward Setup Again: Bitwise Analyst"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cimg.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/23090551\/ayan-150x150.jpg\" alt>\n                    <\/p>\n<p>Crypto Journalist<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Amin Ayan<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cimg.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/23090551\/ayan-150x150.jpg\" alt>\n                <\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>Crypto Journalist<\/p>\n<p><span>Amin Ayan<\/span><span class><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/wp-content\/themes\/cryptonews\/images\/verification.svg\" alt=\"Verified\"><\/span>\n                    <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Part of the Team Since<\/p>\n<p>Apr 2025<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div>\n<p>About Author<\/p>\n<p>Amin Ayan is a crypto journalist with over four years of experience in the industry. He has contributed to leading publications such as Cryptonews, Investing.com, 99Bitcoins, and 24\/7 Wall St. He has&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Last updated:\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><time datetime=\"2025-11-29T10:26:59+00:00\">November 29, 2025<\/time>\n        <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1200\" height=\"673\" src=\"https:\/\/cimg.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/29062243\/1764397362-image-1764396955034_optimized.jpg\" alt=\"Bitcoin Signals \u201cCOVID-Era\u201d Risk-Reward Setup Again: Bitwise Analyst\" decoding=\"async\"  ><\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s current price action may be flashing a familiar signal, according to Bitwise Europe\u2019s head of research, Andr\u00e9 Dragosch.<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><strong>Key Takeaways:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span>Bitwise Europe\u2019s research chief, Andr\u00e9 Dragosch, says Bitcoin now shows a COVID-era risk-reward profile.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>He argues BTC is already pricing in a recession-like outlook after steep sell-offs and heavy liquidations.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Dragosch expects global growth to rebound as past stimulus feeds through, potentially lifting Bitcoin next.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p>In a <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Andre_Dragosch\/status\/1994406656856170868?s=20\" target=\"_blank\">recent post on X<\/a>, Dragosch said the market is beginning to resemble the extreme risk-reward environment seen during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe last time I saw such an asymmetric risk-reward was during COVID,\u201d Dragosch wrote in a post on X on Friday, pointing to March 2020 when Bitcoin collapsed from about $8,000 to below $5,000 as panic swept through global markets.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"h-bitwise-analyst-bitcoin-now-trading-like-a-global-downturn-is-underway\">Bitwise Analyst: Bitcoin Now Trading Like a Global Downturn Is Underway<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Dragosch argued that today\u2019s setup feels similar, not because of a health crisis, but because Bitcoin is once again trading as if a deep downturn is already here.<\/p>\n<p>He said the cryptocurrency appears to be \u201cpricing in\u201d what he described as the most bearish global growth outlook since 2022, a period dominated by aggressive rate tightening from the US Federal Reserve and the shock failure of FTX.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBitcoin is essentially pricing in a recessionary growth environment,\u201d he said, adding that the market has likely absorbed \u201ca lot of the bad news\u201d already.<\/p>\n<p>Recent price action supports the view that sentiment has weakened sharply. Bitcoin is down more than 17% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.<\/p>\n<figure>\n<div>\n<blockquote data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<div lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\n<p>This is probably the most important work I\u2019ve done on <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\">#Bitcoin<\/a> &#038; Macro so far.<\/p>\n<p>It involves a lot of computation and is somewhat complex \u2013 because financial markets are complex at the end of the day.<\/p>\n<p>The question investors constantly face is:<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\ud835\uddea\ud835\uddf5\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01 \ud835\uddf6\ud835\ude00 \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf1 \ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfb\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/TUaFGM5SAT\" target=\"_blank\">pic.twitter.com\/TUaFGM5SAT<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u2014 Andr\u00e9 Dragosch, PhD\u26a1 (@Andre_Dragosch) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Andre_Dragosch\/status\/1994406656856170868?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\">November 28, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p>After hitting an all-time high of $125,100 on Oct. 5, the asset slid into a sustained pullback following a $19 billion liquidation wave on Oct. 10. The drop came days after Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs on Chinese imports.<\/p>\n<p>Momentum deteriorated further in mid-November when Bitcoin slipped below $100,000, a level many traders viewed as psychological support.<\/p>\n<p>Although the price briefly dipped under $90,000 on Nov. 20, buyers quickly stepped in, fueling hopes that the floor may be forming.<\/p>\n<p>Dragosch believes the pessimism could be misplaced. He argues that global growth may soon improve as prior monetary stimulus works its way through the system, a pattern similar to the post-COVID expansion.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI genuinely think we\u2019re staring at a similar macro setup right now,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"h-cathie-wood-calls-liquidity-rebound-for-crypto\">Cathie Wood Calls Liquidity Rebound for Crypto<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>As reported, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood has forecasted that the liquidity squeeze hitting crypto and AI markets <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/news\/cathie-wood-predicts-crypto-liquidity-crunch-will-reverse-within-weeks\/\">will reverse within weeks<\/a>, driven by three Federal Reserve policy shifts expected before year-end.<\/p>\n<p>Her firm continues <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/news\/ark-invest-buys-more-crypto-stocks-block-circle-coinbase-bullish\/\">aggressively buying crypto equities<\/a> during the downturn, deploying over $93 million in a single day this week across beaten-down digital asset stocks.<\/p>\n<p>Speaking during ARK\u2019s November market webinar, she identified three temporary liquidity constraints she expects to ease rapidly through Federal Reserve action and reopened government spending.<\/p>\n<p>Wood expects the Federal Reserve to end quantitative tightening at its December 10 meeting, immediately easing one pressure point.<\/p>\n<p>The government shutdown that caused the Treasury General Account cash buildup has concluded, returning funds to circulation.<\/p>\n<p>\n                                    <a href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqKQgKIiNDQklTRkFnTWFoQUtEbU55ZVhCMGIyNWxkM011WTI5dEtBQVAB?ceid=US:en&#038;oc=3\" target=\"_blank\"><\/p>\n<p>                            <svg width=\"20\" height=\"16\" viewBox=\"0 0 20 16\" fill=\"none\">\n                            <path d=\"M19.6 5.36C19.6 5.48 19.6 5.66 19.54 5.78L17.2 12.8V5.6C17.2 4.94 16.66 4.4 16 4.4H12.82L12.52 3.8L11.86 2.36L15.34 3.32L18.58 4.16C19.18 4.28 19.6 4.82 19.6 5.36Z\" fill=\"#FF4131\" \/>\n                            <path d=\"M15.4 0.799997V3.26L11.92 2.3L11.74 1.88C11.44 1.28 10.72 0.979997 10.12 1.22L4.59998 3.38V0.799997C4.59998 0.499997 4.89998 0.199997 5.19998 0.199997H14.8C15.1 0.199997 15.4 0.499997 15.4 0.799997Z\" fill=\"#03A846\" \/>\n                            <path d=\"M12.82 4.4H4.00002C3.34002 4.4 2.80002 4.94 2.80002 5.6V11.42L0.520024 6.5C0.460024 6.26 0.400024 6.08 0.400024 5.9V5.84C0.400024 5.3 0.700024 4.82 1.24002 4.64L4.60002 3.32L10.06 1.22C10.72 0.979997 11.44 1.28 11.68 1.88L11.86 2.3L12.52 3.74L12.82 4.4Z\" fill=\"#FDBD04\" \/>\n                            <path d=\"M17.2 5.59999V14.6C17.2 15.26 16.66 15.8 16 15.8H4.00005C3.34005 15.8 2.80005 15.26 2.80005 14.6V5.59999C2.80005 4.93999 3.34005 4.39999 4.00005 4.39999H16C16.66 4.39999 17.2 4.93999 17.2 5.59999ZM9.40005 9.79999H7.00005V11H7.90005C7.60005 11.36 7.18005 11.6 6.70005 11.6C5.86005 11.6 5.20005 10.94 5.20005 10.1C5.20005 9.25999 5.86005 8.59999 6.70005 8.59999C7.12005 8.59999 7.48005 8.77999 7.78005 9.01999L8.62005 8.17999C8.14005 7.69999 7.48005 7.39999 6.70005 7.39999C5.20005 7.39999 4.00005 8.59999 4.00005 10.1C4.00005 11.6 5.20005 12.8 6.70005 12.8C7.90005 12.8 8.86005 12.08 9.22005 11C9.34005 10.7 9.40005 10.4 9.40005 10.1C9.40005 9.97999 9.40005 9.91999 9.40005 9.79999ZM14.8 7.39999H10.6V8.59999H14.8V7.39999ZM16 9.79999H10.6V11H16V9.79999ZM14.8 12.2H10.6V13.4H14.8V12.2Z\" fill=\"#0284FE\" \/>\n                            <\/svg><br \/>\n                                                                    Follow us on Google News                                    <\/a>\n                                <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/news\/bitcoin-signals-covid-era-risk-reward-setup-again-bitwise-analyst\/\" class=\"button purchase\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Crypto Journalist Amin Ayan Crypto Journalist Amin Ayan Part of the Team Since Apr 2025 About Author Amin Ayan is a crypto journalist with over four years of experience in the industry. He has contributed to leading publications such as Cryptonews, Investing.com, 99Bitcoins, and 24\/7 Wall St. He has&#8230; Last updated:\u00a0 November 29, 2025 Bitcoin\u2019s<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":880731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4041,25256],"tags":[5822,8578],"class_list":{"0":"post-880730","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bitcoin","8":"category-signals","9":"tag-bitcoin","10":"tag-signals"},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/880730","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=880730"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/880730\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/880731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=880730"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=880730"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=880730"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}