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- Bitwise CIO, Matt Hougan, believes Bitcoin will break its four-year cycle and make a new all-time high in 2026.<\/span><\/li>\n
- It\u2019s one of three predictions Hougan made for 2026, the others being continued falls in Bitcoin\u2019s volatility, and correlation with stocks.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Hougan believes institutional investment now exerts greater influence over Bitcoin\u2019s price performance than forces like halvings and cyclical interest rate hikes.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
Bitwise CIO, Matt Hougan, believes 2026 will be a \u201cvery good year\u201d for crypto, with strong market momentum being driven by falling interest rates, regulatory progress, and surging institutional adoption.<\/p>\n
In his<\/a> December 15 blog post, Hougan made three predictions for 2026. The first \u2014 and most important for investors \u2014 was that Bitcoin<\/a> will definitively buck its four-year cycle and surge to new all-time highs. If Bitcoin were to follow its established pattern, 2026 would be a bear market for crypto.<\/p>\n
Hougan believes new, less idiosyncratic forces, including a huge wave of institutional adoption and investment, will decide what happens in crypto in 2026.<\/p>\n
\nWe believe the wave of institutional capital that began entering the space with the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs in 2024 will accelerate in 2026, as platforms like Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch begin allocating.<\/em><\/p>\n
![](\"https:\/\/cdn.cryptonews.com.au\/2025\/03\/27142257\/Matt-Hougan-Bitwise-CIO.jpg\")
Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO <\/p>\n<\/div>\n\u201cAt the same time, we anticipate that crypto will begin to feel the benefits of the pro-crypto regulatory shift that took place after the 2024 election,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Hougan said this combination will drive Bitcoin to new all-time highs in 2026 and finally relegate the four-year cycle \u201cto the dustbin of history.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Bitwise<\/a> CIO argued that the factors that have previously influenced Bitcoin\u2019s four-year cycle have all weakened considerably and no longer determine the overall state of the crypto market.<\/p>\n
\nThe forces that previously drove four-year cycles\u2014the bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles, and crypto\u2019s leverage-fueled booms and busts\u2014are significantly weaker than they\u2019ve been in past cycles.<\/em><\/p>\n
Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO <\/p>\n<\/div>\nRelated:<\/strong> Barclays Warns of a Cooler Crypto 2026 as Trading Volumes Fade<\/a><\/p>\n
Hougan Also Predicts Lower Volatility and Less Correlation With Stocks<\/h2>\n
In addition to breaking its four-year cycle, Hougan also believes 2026 will see Bitcoin\u2019s volatility continue its years-long downward trend. Despite being known as a highly volatile asset, Hougan pointed out that throughout almost all of 2025, Bitcoin\u2019s volatility has actually been lower than that of NVIDIA\u2019s share price.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis shift [falling volatility] reflects the fundamental derisking of bitcoin as an investment and the diversification of its investor base thanks to traditional investment vehicles like ETFs,\u201d Hougan explained.<\/p>\n
![](\"https:\/\/cdn.cryptonews.com.au\/2025\/12\/16135208\/image-1.jpeg\")
Bitcoin\u2019s volatility over the past 10 years compared to NVIDIA. Source:<\/em> Bitwise<\/em><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n Hougan\u2019s third prediction for 2026 was that Bitcoin\u2019s correlation with the stock market will continue to decline. Already, Bitcoin is fairly weakly correlated with stocks according to Hougan, despite the widespread belief that Bitcoin\u2019s price closely follows stocks. Hougan expects it to drop even lower in 2026 as crypto surges to new highs and stocks struggle.<\/p>\n
- It\u2019s one of three predictions Hougan made for 2026, the others being continued falls in Bitcoin\u2019s volatility, and correlation with stocks.<\/span><\/li>\n