It\u2019s time for the final edition of the first year of Sunday Night Soccer presented by Continental Tire.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
The road show heads back to the heart of Texas, where Austin FC<\/a> \u2013 coming off of a \u201chorrible week,\u201d as head coach Nico Est\u00e9vez put it \u2013 host high-flying LAFC<\/a> at Q2 Stadium (7 pm ET | MLS Season Pass, Apple TV+<\/a>).<\/p>\n This one\u2019s a rescheduled game from earlier in the season, which means the international break has pulled away some of the biggest stars on both sides. But you win with 1-through-30 in MLS, not 1-through-11. Which means both teams get one last depth test before Decision Day.<\/p>\n Let\u2019s dive in.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n They\u2019re sixth in the Western Conference, five points back of Seattle Sounders FC<\/a>, which means if they win this, then win on Decision Day, and the Sounders take just one point from their final two games, then the Verde & Black can actually climb to fifth place. I have a tough time imagining that scenario playing out, but math is math.<\/p>\n Conversely, if they take two points or fewer over their final two games, they open themselves up to the chance of dropping into ninth. This would require all three teams directly behind them in the standings to win out, and I\u2019ve gotta tell you, if that happens, then it\u2019s clear the Soccer Gods have got it in for Austin. This wouldn\u2019t be math; this would be divine intervention conspiring against the Verde & Black, and there\u2019s simply no stopping that.<\/p>\n That\u2019s the standings-level \u201cwhat\u2019s at stake.\u201d On an individual level, it\u2019s another chance for Wolff to prove he\u2019s the leader; for Fodrey (whether he starts or not) to prove he\u2019s a game-changer; and for guys like Besard Sabovic<\/a> and Mateja Djordjevic<\/a>, who\u2019ve had up-and-down years, to get some momentum heading into the final match of the season.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n These are LAFC\u2019s games in hand that they\u2019ve been sitting on for months, first with their 2-0 win<\/a> over TFC on Wednesday and now this trip to Texas. And it\u2019s good that these games are coming now, with the Black & Gold in their best form of the season.<\/p>\n But it\u2019s also bad that these games are coming now since, as mentioned above, Son and Bouanga are both away on international duty. Yes, LAFC are already locked into a top-four spot in the West; no, fourth place won’t be good enough for them. It would be a disappointment, as a matter of fact, and potentially a terminal one since the one team in the bottom half of the West they (and everyone else) wants to avoid is fifth-place Seattle.<\/p>\n An LAFC-Sounders matchup in Round One is a toss-up; LAFC vs. any of the teams in sixth through ninth? That\u2019s a mismatch.<\/p>\n So yes, this is quite possibly an Audi MLS Cup Playoffs preview \u2013 avoid Seattle and you might get Austin in Round One. I’m sure Steve Cherundolo will want his boys to leave a mark.<\/p>\n Two other notes:<\/p>\n Est\u00e9vez has had his team sliding from a 3-4-2-1 to a 4-3-3 to a 4-2-3-1 all year based upon available personnel and tactical necessity. Sometimes the tactical trickery works, but I also think it\u2019s baked in a level of confusion and discomfort in his team. They don\u2019t always look natural playing in that 3-4-2-1, and, as last week vs. St. Louis<\/a> showed, they don\u2019t always look natural playing in that 4-3-3. There\u2019s often this weird lack of conviction.<\/p>\n The way it\u2019s manifested is in the standings, where Austin were as high as second in the West earlier this season and (even more worryingly in my opinion) in the underlying numbers:<\/p>\n Their xG differential over that 11-game stretch, as per Opta, is -0.50 per 90. That would be 29th in the league \u2013 worse than the LA Galaxy<\/a>, worse than CF Montr\u00e9al<\/a>, worse than D.C. United<\/a>! \u2013 ahead of only Sporting KC<\/a> if it were their number for the year.<\/p>\n They are not playing great soccer right now, and haven\u2019t been for a while. It hasn\u2019t mattered what lineups or formations Est\u00e9vez has tried; none of it has quite worked, and they\u2019re kind of just hanging on right now.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n For the past month, it\u2019s been \u201cgive it to Son and Bouanga and get out of the way.\u201d That\u2019s worked a charm, hasn\u2019t it? I\u2019m a big fan of David Mart\u00ednez<\/a> and I\u2019ve always loved Ebobisse, but something tells me those two guys won\u2019t be quite as devastating a pair in this one (if they are, indeed, both on the front line to start).<\/p>\n I expect them there, with Moran alongside Mart\u00ednez underneath Ebobisse in the 3-4-2-1 Cherundolo\u2019s had his team lined up in since late summer. This is what their network passing graphic looked like on Wednesday night:<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Playing that shape both in and out of possession has simplified things for the backline he\u2019s had to rebuild on the fly following the season-ending injury to Aaron Long<\/a>, and all three of the regular backline starters \u2013 Nkosi Tafari<\/a> in the middle, flanked by Eddie Segura<\/a> and newcomer Ryan Porteous<\/a> \u2013 have responded.<\/p>\n With that type of foundation, the wingbacks have been released higher and wider, and earlier in the play, to draw opposing defenders towards the touchline. That, of course, has opened up space for Son and Bouanga, and that\u2019s where goals come from.<\/p>\n I fully expect to see the same system, and more than anything else, Austin need to be aware of the big, right-to-left switches that Tafari hits. When one of those lands on the foot of the left wingback, LAFC are a problem (no matter who it is playing up top at the moment).<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n As I said, Est\u00e9vez likes to flip between the 4-3-3 and 3-4-2-1, and I think he’ll land on the 3-4-2-1 for this one. Mirroring an opponent\u2019s shape is a very simple tactical adjustment that can pay dividends, and is especially useful for preventing the type of big switches described above (if it\u2019s a 3-4-2-1 vs. a 3-4-2-1, the wingbacks essentially man-mark each other).<\/p>\n They\u2019ve got a few more missing pieces than LAFC, so I\u2019m spitballing a bit here.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\nAustin FC<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/p>\n
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LAFC<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/p>\n
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Austin<\/h3>\n<\/p>\n
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LAFC<\/h3>\n<\/p>\n