Soccer <\/p>\n
As another MLS regular season rounds to a close and Decision Day (Oct. 18) fast approaches, now is a good time to check in and see what\u2019s on the radar over the next two-plus weeks. These will decide how 2025 is remembered, for posterity\u2019s sake.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
I didn\u2019t vote Lionel Messi<\/a> for Landon Donovan MLS MVP last year. Yes, he was the best player. Yes, he added the most cumulative value if you look at data like American Soccer Analysis\u2019s goals added (G+) metric. And yes, Inter Miami<\/a> won the Supporters\u2019 Shield.<\/p>\n But he played fewer than 1,500 minutes! I\u2019m sorry, that\u2019s not enough. The rule is technically<\/em> that they’ve got to play 1,000 minutes in the regular season, but I\u2019ve got it in my head that the cut-off is 2,000 minutes (which is about two-thirds of the season). I couldn\u2019t break my own rule, even for the GOAT. Especially not when Miami had just about the exact same points per game with him as without him in 2024.<\/p>\n No such worries this year. He crested 2,000 regular-season minutes on the weekend, and he\u2019s again the best player in the league (duh), currently atop the Golden Boot presented by Audi race, second in total assists, third in primary assists, and first in total goal contributions. That last one is by a lot.<\/p>\n Also, there\u2019s simply no argument that Miami have been as good without him in 2025: as of this writing, they’re 2W-2L-2D when he doesn\u2019t play, which is 1.33 ppg. When he does suit up, the number jumps to almost 2.00 ppg. That\u2019s the difference between 10th in the Eastern Conference and raising the Shield. That is the definition of \u201cvalue.\u201d<\/p>\n Anders Dreyer<\/a>, Evander<\/a>, Denis Bouanga<\/a>, even Mart\u00edn Ojeda<\/a>\u2026 these guys are incredible, and in normal years they\u2019d be in the running.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n This year, they\u2019re fighting for second. Even though Messi just picked the absolute worst time to go two straight regular-season games without a goal since April, my vote\u2019s already decided, and I\u2019ll bet I\u2019m not the only one.<\/p>\n I\u2019ll be shocked if Messi doesn’t become the first back-to-back MVP in league history.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Messi\u2019s in the lead, as I mentioned above, with 24 goals. He\u2019s also got a higher goals\/90 than the other two guys still plausibly in the hunt: Bouanga and Nashville SC<\/a>\u2019s Sam Surridge<\/a>, who\u2019s spent most of the year in the lead.<\/p>\n Of the two, Bouanga has the clearer path to the top spot since:<\/p>\n Alas, that parenthetical in point No. 1 above\u2026 tough to get past it. So my guess is Messi grabs the Golden Boot as well.<\/p>\n Still, the door is open. And with Miami suddenly all but out of the Shield race, maybe Messi rests one of these games?<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n This past weekend, I thought I got out over my skis a little bit in all but congratulating the Philadelphia Union<\/a> for winning the Shield\u2026 nope. With Miami\u2019s collapse on Tuesday against Chicago<\/a>, it would take a lot for them to fall short. Just win one of their final two games and it\u2019s theirs:<\/p>\n So yeah, the Union can wrap it up this weekend when they host New York City FC<\/a> (7:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass<\/a>).<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Now, it\u2019s not entirely out of the question that Philly faceplant. They\u2019ve only been ok against the league\u2019s better teams, going just 7W-6L-3D against current playoff sides, and both of their final two games (vs. NYCFC this weekend, then at Charlotte<\/a> on Decision Day) are against teams that have already clinched postseason berths. Beyond that, they\u2019ve only got one win all year against teams that were in the top four of either conference at the time that Philly played them.<\/p>\n It was a 1-0 result<\/a> vs. Cincy<\/a> last month. They followed that up by getting stuffed in a locker by a combined 10-1 against Vancouver and Nashville in their subsequent two games. Going into this weekend, NYCFC sit third in the East. This is not a gimme in any way, shape or form.<\/p>\n Still, I have a hard time imagining anyone but the Union hoisting that Shield. It\u2019s been all gas, no brakes all year, and that\u2019s how you win the thing. Job well (almost) done.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n San Diego<\/a> have led most of the past few months and are atop the conference on 57 points, holding the first tiebreaker (wins) over Vancouver. But the Whitecaps are fractionally ahead on points per game because they have a game in hand. And they’re unbeaten in six, with two of their remaining three games at home. On the other hand, San Diego have lost two of three and will spend their final 180 minutes of the year on the road.<\/p>\n The problem for Vancouver is they\u2019re missing three-fourths of their starting backline for at least the rest of the regular season, and their cadre of brilliant veteran attackers (Thomas M\u00fcller<\/a>, Brian White<\/a> and especially Ryan Gauld<\/a>) have all missed time (lots and lots of time in Gauld\u2019s case, though he might finally return this weekend) via injury.<\/p>\n Plus, they’re playing the Canadian Championship<\/a> final on Wednesday night. Will there be a hangover?<\/p>\n Minnesota<\/a> are technically<\/em> still in the race, but they can tell you all about post-tournament hangovers because the wind completely went out of their sails following a devastating US Open Cup<\/a> semifinal loss against Austin<\/a> a couple of weeks back. They don’t look like a team about to win out and make it interesting, even if their final two games (hosting Sporting<\/a> KC this weekend, then at the Galaxy<\/a> on Decision Day) seem to be inviting them to do exactly that.<\/p>\n Know who looks like they could win out and make it interesting? LAFC<\/a>. Since Son Heung-Min<\/a> arrived, they\u2019ve pretty clearly been the best team in the Western Conference. And while part of that is them facing a schedule that\u2019s not exactly murderer\u2019s row, the rest of their schedule is\u2026 not exactly murderer\u2019s row.<\/p>\n They\u2019ve got four games left, and I think they\u2019ll be favored to win all four. But Son and Bouanga will likely be on international duty for half of them, so\u2026 now would be a good time for Jeremy Ebobisse<\/a> to become a club legend and David Mart\u00ednez<\/a> to come good on his lofty potential.<\/p>\n As it stands, Vancouver\u2019s 66 points are the highest total anyone in the conference can reach. But if LAFC take 12 points from their final four games, they\u2019ll be just behind them at 65. Neither San Diego (63) nor Minnesota (61) can hit that.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Eastern Conference<\/strong><\/p>\n The Red Bulls<\/a> officially became toast on Tuesday night, which means we know the nine East teams who have made the postseason. What\u2019s still up in the air is the order, as Chicago climbed past Columbus<\/a> into eighth, and it’s not at all unreasonable for them to think they can climb even higher.<\/p>\n That’s because the badly listing Crew are at Orlando<\/a> on Saturday in a true six-pointer (7:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass<\/a>). Win that and then suddenly Columbus have a chance to pull themselves out of Wild Card purgatory, and maybe even higher if sixth-place Nashville and\/or fifth-place Charlotte fall on their faces. And if the Fire keep winning \u2013 they have Toronto<\/a> and New England<\/a> left \u2013 well, I can see a world where they climb as high as fifth. It\u2019s not likely, but it\u2019s there.<\/p>\n What’s likely, of course, is Columbus finish ninth while the Fire and Orlando battle to stay out of the Wild Card spot. Nashville and Charlotte probably stay above the fray, but don\u2019t crack the top four.<\/p>\n But this is MLS, so everything about the above scenario could end up wrong. Strange things happen.<\/p>\n Western Conference<\/strong><\/p>\n For evidence of that, look at the West race: I think it\u2019s pretty clear that FC Dallas<\/a> in 10th and Real Salt Lake<\/a> in 11th are better-positioned than 8th-place Colorado<\/a> and 9th-place San Jose<\/a>, because Dallas and RSL have easier (though not \u201ceasy\u201d) schedules and each hold a game in hand.<\/p>\n Let\u2019s start with the big one: RSL host Colorado on Saturday, and no matter what happens in the other games, if RSL win that one, then they jump the Rapids in the standings. That could put them as high as eighth, should San Jose (at Vancouver) and Dallas (home vs. the Galaxy) both lose.<\/p>\n But if both those teams win, RSL will have faced the 8th-place team, beaten them, jumped them in the standings, and\u2026 would still be below the playoff line. That\u2019s insanity.<\/p>\n The overall takeaway is there are four teams for two spots (sorry, 12th-place Houston<\/a>; I\u2019m not including you, your season\u2019s done), and all four are probably playing must-win games this weekend. It\u2019s like a mini-Decision Day before Decision Day proper.<\/p>\n There’s no real chance that any of these teams climb above the Wild Card fray, for what it\u2019s worth. We\u2019re talking Wild Card or bust for all of them.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n \n \n
\n