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- Experts warned that an Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a global risk-off move.\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n
- The Options market showed a premium for puts, underscoring short-term bearish sentiment and hedging.\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Bitcoin [BTC]<\/a> pumped to $108K on the 16th of June following traders\u2019 bullish positioning<\/a> <\/span>despite the Israel-Iran escalation over the weekend. <\/span>However, BTC dropped to $105K as the war premium faded. <\/span><\/p>\n
Reacting to the market volatility, Tracy Jinn, COO at MEXC crypto exchange, told AMBCrypto that there was only one key risk factor in the war.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u201cThere\u2019s still one big risk to watch out for: the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of the world\u2019s oil (20 million barrels) goes through this narrow stretch of land, and any kind of conflict could lead to a sharp rise in energy prices.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Bitcoins Markets on edge<\/h2>\n
Jin added that such a scenario would drive inflation higher by the end of the year, triggering a risk-off move and denting crypto and equity markets.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u201cAs crypto trades become more and more linked to macro assets, Bitcoin, which is often seen as \u2018macro beta\u2019 these days, is likely to see some fresh volatility.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
There were speculations that the U.S. may join the war, but lawmaker Thomas Massie <\/span>maintained<\/span><\/a> that they can\u2019t go to war without a congressional approval.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
In addition, prediction site Polymarket <\/span>showed<\/span><\/a> only a 2% chance of the U.S. declaring war on Iran before July.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
On a Monday market <\/span>update<\/span><\/a>, crypto trading firm QCP Capital echoed Jin\u2019s sentiment and warned that a U.S. involvement would lead to \u2018repricing across risk assets.\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u201cA potential Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could drive oil sharply higher. Any direct US military involvement would likely result in significant repricing across risk assets.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
At press time, there was increased defensive <\/span>BTC<\/span><\/a> market positioning as 25 Delta Risk Reversal (25RR) flipped negative.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
It meant short-term bearish sentiment and increased demand for puts (bearish bets) over calls (bullish bets). Simply put, traders were heavily hedging against further downside risk.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
That said, BTC ETFs saw $412 million inflows on the 16th of June, which reinforced institutional conviction. Whether the positive inflows will continue throughout the week remains to be seen.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
But Jin highlighted that BTC could hit $150K by Q4, if the ETF inflows remain positive in the medium term. <\/span>In the short term, though, the king coin may be under the whims of liquidation hunt, <\/span>noted <\/span><\/a>analyst Will Woo.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
If so, the next price magnet could be the $100K-$103K area before a likely sweep to $108K-$110K price zone. The upside liquidity hunt could happen if any positive deal is reached between Iran and Israel.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
- The Options market showed a premium for puts, underscoring short-term bearish sentiment and hedging.\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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