Soccer <\/p>\n
Eight teams. Three wins. One trophy. And three golden tickets to next year\u2019s Concacaf Champions Cup<\/a> \u2013 the kind of opportunity that can change a club\u2019s trajectory, or at least burnish its legacy.<\/p>\n Some sides have blitzed their way to this stage and imposed their style, while others have mostly just survived by grinding out results and winning on the margins. But from this point forward, there\u2019s no coasting. Every match is a knockout with rivalry stakes, including four MLS and LIGA MX showdowns to kick things off on Aug. 20. Every mistake will be magnified, as will every moment of brilliance.<\/p>\n There are a lot of familiar faces in the final eight, teams that know a thing or two about silverware (there is somehow also Puebla). Let\u2019s rank them in terms of how likely they are to win this thing.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Quarterfinal<\/strong><\/p>\n Yes, after two years of MLS dominance, I\u2019m predicting it\u2019s time for a LIGA MX side to win Leagues Cup<\/a>. In this case, it\u2019s the LIGA MX team that\u2019s largely defined Mexican club soccer over the past 15 years, but has been somewhat sidelined over the past two.<\/p>\n No longer. They operated with a scalpel in the summer transfer window, making one big signing in getting \u00c1ngel Correa from Atl\u00e9tico Madrid. The Argentine attacker dominated Phase One with four goals in three games (two of which were wins), and while he hasn\u2019t been as scorching in the Apertura, he hasn\u2019t had to be \u2013 Tigres have three wins in three outings, including a massive, 4-3 result at Toluca and a 7-0 demolition of Puebla.<\/p>\n How they play<\/strong><\/p>\n Bigger than signing Correa, perhaps, was the early retirement of legendary d-mid Guido Pizarro, who has taken some rapid steps towards becoming legendary manager Guido Pizarro. The 35-year-old Argentine, who is younger than a handful of the players in the XI, has not reinvented the wheel, but has instead simplified things. Tigres play a 4-4-2 and generally don\u2019t care much about having the ball. Instead, they release Correa and whoever is starting up top next to him (mostly Nicol\u00e1s Ib\u00e1\u00f1ez these days) into space.<\/p>\n And that\u2019s been more than enough.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Quarterfinal<\/strong><\/p>\n The Toluca side Tigres beat are the reigning LIGA MX champions, having dethroned tri-campeones Club Am\u00e9rica back in the spring. It was a landmark moment for a once-proud club that had fallen on hard times \u2013 Tigres\u2019 rise over the past 15 years had coincided with a fallow period for los Diablos Rojos.<\/p>\n They have pulled themselves out of that rut with the power of the purse, spending nearly $100 million in the transfer market on players from the likes of Sporting CP (the big Sporting, in Lisbon), Palmeiras, Monterrey and even, yes, Tigres.<\/p>\n The glory days aren\u2019t fully back. But with three titles in quick succession \u2013 the Apertura, Campe\u00f3n de Campeones and maybe Leagues Cup \u2013 it feels like they\u2019d be well on their way.<\/p>\n How they play<\/strong><\/p>\n Like Tigres, Toluca aren\u2019t religious about getting on the ball to control the game. They will do it when they\u2019re chasing a result \u2013 as we saw in their final game of Phase One, when they conceded early to New York City FC<\/a> \u2013 but under head coach Antonio Mohamed (a legendary figure in Mexican soccer who\u2019s won titles with four different clubs), they are pragmatic and flexible.<\/p>\n That applies to their team shape as well. We\u2019ve already seen Toluca come out in three different formations in league play this year, as Mohamed will liberally mix-and-match depending on what he perceives as his opponent\u2019s weakness.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Quarterfinal<\/strong><\/p>\n The only team to go perfect in Phase One, with three wins from three outings, the Sounders<\/a> are now unbeaten in 10 games across all competitions since their impressive FIFA Club World Cup<\/a> showing.<\/p>\n And some of these wins\u2026 man. They smoked Cruz Azul \u2013 the reigning Concacaf Champions Cup champions! \u2013 7-0<\/a> in their first Leagues Cup game, which is a record win for an MLS team over a LIGA MX side. And this past weekend, they went down to Carson and crushed the LA Galaxy<\/a> with a 4-0 result<\/a>. And while the Galaxy aren\u2019t Cruz Azul, they\u2019re not the meme team they were three months ago. I mean, they\u2019re in the Leagues Cup quarterfinals as well!<\/p>\n They are playing the best soccer in MLS, and maybe even on the continent right now. The issue is, they will be without their No. 10, Albert Rusn\u00e1k<\/a>, over the next month (and their DP No. 9 is already sidelined). If he were healthy, I\u2019d probably have them atop this list.<\/p>\n How they play<\/strong><\/p>\n It\u2019s almost always a 4-2-3-1 for the Sounders, and they tend to want the ball, as they\u2019re up around 54% possession on the season. A lot of that possession is in the final third, as their field tilt is fourth-highest in MLS at 56.4%, something that held firm in Phase One as well.<\/p>\n But without Rusn\u00e1k, things might be slightly different. During the win at LA, in which Jes\u00fas Ferreira<\/a> started at the 10, we saw a team that played a little bit deeper and a little more direct, and therefore had a little bit less of the ball. We also saw Ferreira play less as an orchestrator and almost, at times, as a second forward. He\u2019s going to combine around the box rather than thread runners through.<\/p>\n It\u2019s a subtle but meaningful shift.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Quarterfinal<\/strong><\/p>\n If you convince me Lionel Messi<\/a> is healthy, I will probably be convinced to change my mind over who belongs in the top spot on this list. We\u2019ve already seen Miami win this trophy in 2023, for one. And for two, we\u2019ve already seen this Miami team \u2013 with a healthy Messi, of course \u2013 pull off a historic upset<\/a> of FC Porto in the Club World Cup en route to the knockout round of that global tournament.<\/p>\n So we know they\u2019re excellent. And with the addition of Rodrigo De Paul<\/a> this summer, they have gotten better and deeper in a crucial part of the field, and done so by adding someone who has very obvious chemistry with the guy who wears No. 10.<\/p>\n If Messi\u2019s not healthy, though? I don\u2019t think they have enough firepower given how sporadic Luis Su\u00e1rez<\/a> has been in front of net, and how reliant Tadeo Allende<\/a> has been on Messi\u2019s service to be dangerous.<\/p>\n Plus, they would have to advance past Tigres and then Toluca, who I just talked about above \u2013 or maybe even Orlando City<\/a>, who just absolutely destroyed the Herons with a 4-1 result<\/a> this past weekend.<\/p>\n And that\u2019s just to get to the final.<\/p>\n How they play<\/strong><\/p>\n They\u2019ve primarily played out of what I\u2019ll call a 4-4-1-1 when both Messi and Su\u00e1rez have been available. Messi is nominally a forward in that shape \u2013 they\u2019ll usually defend with a front two and banks of four behind him, so it looks like a 4-4-2 without the ball. But he\u2019s also free to drop in and become a playmaker, flare wide to become a winger, or even do forward things like running off Su\u00e1rez\u2019s movement and hold-up play.<\/p>\n With De Paul, it\u2019ll probably be more of a 4-3-3, though the shape will be roughly the same as the 4-4-1-1 in many ways. Honestly, head coach Javier Mascherano has done a good job of keeping principles of play in place even while he\u2019s had to mix-and-match some pieces and formations.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Quarterfinal<\/strong><\/p>\n This might be too low!<\/p>\n Pachuca don\u2019t sit at the big boys\u2019 table when it comes to transfer dealings, but they haven\u2019t had to for most of the past 30 years. They\u2019re just so good at 1) developing talent internally, 2) finding underappreciated talent on cut prices, and 3) integrating all of it into a whole greater than the sum of its parts.<\/p>\n Since 1999, that\u2019s meant seven LIGA MX titles, six CCC (n\u00e9e League) titles, a Copa Sudamericana (making them the only Concacaf team ever to win a Conmebol tournament) and even an old North American SuperLiga. They\u2019ve also featured at five Club World Cups, including this summer\u2019s edition.<\/p>\n Nobody should be surprised if they win Leagues Cup on the way to another LIGA MX crown.<\/p>\n How they play<\/strong><\/p>\n It\u2019s largely a 4-2-3-1 under new head coach Jaime Lozano, who took over at the end of May after the club\u2019s unsuccessful Clausura showing.<\/p>\n This team can get on the ball and put it to good use \u2013 that\u2019s exactly what they\u2019ve done in their past two outings in LIGA MX. But they\u2019ve also shown the ability to counter teams to death, which is what they did against San Diego FC<\/a> to open their Leagues Cup run. Los Tuzos simply dropped their lines deep in that way, trading possession and field position for space to run into, and were up 3-0 just past the hour mark.<\/p>\n Again: this might be too low. They\u2019re really good.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Quarterfinal<\/strong><\/p>\n Orlando City are also really good, so this might also be too low. It certainly is if they have 270 more minutes like the 90<\/a> they just played against Inter Miami this past weekend. They can beat anybody in this field, and look good while doing it.<\/p>\n Mart\u00edn Ojeda<\/a> is one of the best attackers on the continent right now. At the very least, he was probably the best attacker in Phase One with three goals and three assists in three games. The defense was mostly good enough, and I still love the deep midfield pairing of C\u00e9sar Ara\u00fajo<\/a> and Eduard Atuesta<\/a>. They are perfectly balanced and capable of dominating games against the best either league has to offer.<\/p>\n Orlando have been awesome over the past month after a rough start to the summer.<\/p>\n How they play<\/strong><\/p>\n It\u2019s a back four that morphs into a back three with a stay-at-home left back, which allows right back Alex Freeman<\/a> to maraud forward at will. That\u2019s one crucial ingredient.<\/p>\n Another is that Ojeda is a No. 10, but he\u2019s a No. 10 who doesn\u2019t really do much orchestration \u2013 that\u2019s mostly left to Atuesta \u2013 and instead flares out left to create combos at pace through that left channel. It\u2019s been unstoppable.<\/p>\n And with all that, the key is probably mercurial veteran No. 9 Luis Muriel<\/a>. He disappeared for two months (goalless in 14 games across all competitions), then came back to life in the past two games: 5g\/1a with a hat-trick against Necaxa to punch Orlando\u2019s ticket to the quarterfinals, and then 2g\/1a against Miami on the weekend.<\/p>\n If that version of Muriel shows up, Orlando can win this thing.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Quarterfinal<\/strong><\/p>\n I do not believe the LA Galaxy can win this thing.<\/p>\n Considering how poor their start to the season was, though, that\u2019s ok. Just getting to the knockout rounds \u2013 big wins over Club Tijuana and Santos Laguna, and a credible draw (lost via PK shootout, but still) against Cruz Azul \u2013 can be taken as a level of proof that what happened from February to the end of May was some sort of mass hallucination.<\/p>\n That doesn’t mean it wasn\u2019t partially real, though. The Galaxy have been decent since then (5W-3L-4D, +6 goal differential), but not great. Even at home, in Carson, they will be underdogs against Pachuca.<\/p>\n How they play<\/strong><\/p>\n It\u2019s a pretty standard 4-2-3-1 from head coach Greg Vanney, with two overlapping wingbacks and Marco Reus<\/a> as a mobile No. 10.<\/p>\n The wrinkle comes from how the wingers are used, as left-footed Gabriel Pec<\/a> and right-footed Joseph Paintsil<\/a> both prefer to be on the right. So what often happens is they take turns in that spot throughout the game, which has been very useful of late.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Quarterfinal<\/strong><\/p>\n I\u2019m still not quite sure how they managed this. Puebla are a traditional club \u2013 they go back more than 120 years \u2013 but a small club, and one that\u2019s in the midst of, uh, some struggles. Here are their finishing spots in the past three LIGA MX campaigns:<\/p>\n And they are currently 16th in the 2025 Apertura, with three losses (including that 7-0 to Tigres last weekend) in four games.<\/p>\n But they caught NYCFC napping in their Leagues Cup opener, then managed not to lose too badly to Columbus<\/a> before edging past 10-man Montr\u00e9al<\/a> with a 2-1 win<\/a> to sneak into the quarterfinals. So here they are.<\/p>\n If they beat Seattle, it would be a monumental upset.<\/p>\n How they play<\/strong><\/p>\n Head coach Pablo Guede has mostly trotted his team out in a 5-4-1 and \u2013 to his credit \u2013 tried to get on the ball. They haven\u2019t been half-bad with it, either, as they\u2019ve got a positive expected goal differential in the league (which is thanks mostly to a dominant win over Santos Laguna, but still) and have some good chance creation underlying numbers.<\/p>\n But that possession can be a double-edged sword, as they\u2019re very susceptible to getting hit on the counter when they turn it over. And on top of that, they just get eaten up by wide overloads (think about the goal young Snyder Brunell<\/a> scored for the Sounders this weekend\u2026 that exact pattern has killed Puebla this year).<\/p>\n It\u2019s a nice story that they\u2019ve made it this far. They won\u2019t be going any further.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n
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