{"id":859287,"date":"2025-07-01T10:12:27","date_gmt":"2025-07-01T15:12:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/01\/teslas-core-business-is-in-reverse-its-stock-is-driving-autonomously\/"},"modified":"2025-07-01T10:12:27","modified_gmt":"2025-07-01T15:12:27","slug":"teslas-core-business-is-in-reverse-its-stock-is-driving-autonomously","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/01\/teslas-core-business-is-in-reverse-its-stock-is-driving-autonomously\/","title":{"rendered":"Tesla\u2019s core business is in reverse. Its stock is driving autonomously"},"content":{"rendered":"
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At Tesla, the wheels are slowing, but the hype engine is humming.<\/p>\n

On Wednesday, Elon Musk\u2019s EV empire will report its second-quarter delivery figures, a once-predictive metric for the stock\u2019s movement that has been seemingly reduced to background noise. Now, Tesla\u2019s stock isn\u2019t driving itself off of fundamentals anymore \u2014 it\u2019s running on the idea of autonomy<\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n

Call it the great EV bait-and-switch. Just as its car sales stall<\/a> in key global markets<\/span><\/a>, Tesla has managed to reroute investor attention toward a shinier, driverless future. The robotaxi is (sort of<\/span><\/a>) here \u2014 at least in Austin, Texas, with some carefully curated demo rides. Whether that detour can carry the company\u2019s trillion-dollar narrative through another quarter of underwhelming results is the question facing Tesla and its increasingly speculative shareholders.<\/p>\n

Tesla\u2019s second-quarter delivery numbers, once expected to clear 440,000, are now forecasted by a growing chorus of analysts to fall somewhere between 355,000 and 377,000 units (while Bloomberg\u2019s consensus sits at 392,000). That\u2019d be a 15\u201320% year-over-year drop. Deutsche Bank trimmed its projection to 355,000 \u2014 a nearly 20% year-over\u2011year decline, versus last year\u2019s high of roughly 440,000 \u2014 citing sharp year-over-year erosion in Europe and a stubborn sales slump in China as BYD pulls further ahead<\/span><\/a> and Xiaomi racked up 200,000 preorders for its new EV in under five minutes.<\/p>\n

JPMorgan, largely in the bear camp, has warned of an \u201caccelerating decline\u201d with its estimate landing at 360,000 units. The bank now expects Tesla\u2019s yearly unit sales to fall to 1.575 million, down from the 1.7 million consensus. Analysts pointed out that Tesla would need a far stronger second half to hit any rebound.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Tesla\u2019s details are grim. The company reported a dismal first quarter<\/a>. Vehicles registrations in the EU cratered by almost 30% in May compared with a year ago; numbers in China remain slightly below the first quarter despite deep discounts; and even the U.S. market showed cracks earlier this quarter, before a late-stage Model Y refresh (Juniper) helped paper over the gap. Tesla\u2019s global brand has been \u201cdamaged the most\u201d in Europe \u201cwhere competition is intensifying,\u201d according to Deutsche Bank, while JPMorgan sees \u201cno end in sight\u201d to what it calls a multiyear expectations reset.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe see material risk to the outlook for full year deliveries also, given that consensus requires a sharp pivot from underperformance to outperformance of expected seasonal pattern despite the likely significant near-term curtailment of EV subsidies,\u201d JPMorgan analysts wrote in a Monday note. Tesla\u2019s declining numbers have a structural feel to them, and even the bullish buy-side has tempered expectations. This is more than a stuttering recovery; it feels like a business sliding into reverse.<\/p>\n

But here\u2019s the kicker: None of that data seems to matter. Despite falling stock prices (down 6.64% over the last month and 15.84% year to date), investors stay bullish. Tesla\u2019s P\/E ratio is 176.34 \u2014 meanwhile Nvidia, the most valuable company in the world, has a P\/E ratio of 50.85. A mere whisper of a robotaxi pilot with Model Ys in Austin sparked a 9.2% single-day spike, which added roughly $95.7\u202fbillion in market cap, more than the annual GDP of Croatia.<\/p>\n

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Autonomy is the detour of the decade<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Musk\u2019s robotaxi dream has become the backbone of Tesla\u2019s valuation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

William Blair, in a recent note, pegged the value of Tesla\u2019s robotaxi business at $299 per share, nearly 10 times the estimated value of the core automotive segment ($28.09). That math makes a lot of things make sense \u2014 such as why a company with declining sales and shrinking margins still trades at over $1 trillion. Wedbush analysts have echoed that sentiment, arguing that Tesla\u2019s robotaxi unit cost could be just a third of Waymo\u2019s, cementing Tesla\u2019s position as a disruptive force in autonomous mobility.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur analysis reveals that Tesla\u2019s valuation is increasingly dependent on the robotaxi business,\u201d William Blair analysts wrote. \u201cWe fundamentally believe in Tesla\u2019s long-term solution of neural nets and vision only, but acknowledge it opens up attack vectors for the inevitable hiccups to come. We are encouraging investors to use bumps along the road tactically. The counterbalance to the robotaxi opportunity is a challenging environment for the core businesses today.\u201d<\/p>\n

According to the firm\u2019s 2040 forecast, Tesla will own 35% of a $1.4 trillion autonomous ride-hailing market, hauling in nearly $250 billion in robotaxi revenue. With projected EBITDA margins nearing 60% \u2014 thanks to Tesla\u2019s hardware stack \u2014 it\u2019s no wonder some investors are happy to discount today\u2019s softness for tomorrow\u2019s robot army.<\/p>\n

But \u201ctomorrow\u201d is doing a lot of heavy lifting.<\/p>\n

Despite the heady valuation, there are cracks even in Tesla\u2019s self-driving narrative.<\/p>\n

Videos from the robotaxi pilot show unsettling signs \u2014 phantom braking, erratic lane behavior, sudden stops \u2014 attracting fresh scrutiny from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. And then there\u2019s the competitive heat<\/span><\/a>. Waymo just launched service in Atlanta, adding to an already robust presence in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Phoenix, Arizona. Even as Tesla pivots to AI, the competition isn\u2019t exactly stuck in neutral.<\/p>\n

Plus, another big bet from Tesla seems to be slipping. Deutsche Bank noted that the anticipated Model Q budget car, originally pegged for a June unveiling<\/a>, appears delayed. Without it, Tesla may not regain meaningful sales momentum until the fourth quarter \u2014 assuming the launch even materializes.<\/p>\n

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Wednesday could show the fork in the road<\/strong><\/h2>\n

When the second-quarter delivery numbers hit, Tesla won\u2019t just be reporting how many cars it sold. It will be reporting how far its narrative can stretch before it snaps. If deliveries hover near 355,000, Tesla may still escape punishment \u2014 buy-side expectations have been tamped down, and the market has largely decoupled the stock from its sales trajectory. But a deeper miss (say, under 350,000 units) could raise questions: Is Tesla just a regular car company with a well-funded science project on the side, or is it really driving toward a new economic model?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

On the other hand, a modest beat \u2014 maybe closer to 375,000 units \u2014 might give bulls just enough fuel to keep the stock aloft. But even then, the company will need to offer more than AI optimism. Is the Model Q still coming this year? Can Tesla stabilize its China business? Are the Austin robotaxis more than glorified demos? Tesla\u2019s magic has always been its ability to sell both cars and dreams. But as the cars struggle and the dreams get more expensive, the company\u2019s margin for error narrows.<\/p>\n

Wedbush analyst Scott Devitt wrote in a Monday note, \u201cWhile we think the near-term financial impact to established ridesharing platforms is limited, over time, we expect AVs will disrupt the current status quo. \u2026 Tesla\u2019s robotaxi approach circumvents affordability as a limiting factor on scale.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

But affordability cuts both ways \u2014 and so do expectations. If the robotaxis don\u2019t scale fast enough or if they meet resistance from regulators or the public, investors may find themselves holding a lot of promise and not nearly enough product.<\/p>\n

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\n Shannon Carroll<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

At Tesla, the wheels are slowing, but the hype engine is humming. On Wednesday, Elon Musk\u2019s EV empire will report its second-quarter delivery figures, a once-predictive metric for the stock\u2019s movement that has been seemingly reduced to background noise. Now, Tesla\u2019s stock isn\u2019t driving itself off of fundamentals anymore \u2014 it\u2019s running on the idea<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":859288,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[378,37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-859287","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","category-teslas"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/859287","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=859287"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/859287\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/859288"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=859287"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=859287"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=859287"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}