Warning: AI can produce misinformation and disinformation<\/p>\n <\/fbs-accordion>getty<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n Throughout my 60-plus years of investing experience, I have seen numerous attempts to use technology to make successful investment decisions. While all the technology advances were welcome tools, they could never replace the human brain. Why not? Because the relevant areas, necessary ingredients and proper logic for making accurate investing analysis, outlooks and decisions are forever changing.<\/p>\n Nope. It does not “know,” nor does it “think.” That is why the many artificial intelligence teams cannot stop their programs from producing hallucinations, meaning wildly incorrect results. The teams are now trying to get those programs to “know” what is right and wrong by slowing down their “thinking.” However, the hallucinating has gotten worse.<\/p>\n (See The New York Times\u2019 <\/em>May 6 article for a good explanation: “A.I. Is Getting More Powerful, but Its Hallucinations Are Getting Worse<\/a> – A new wave of ‘reasoning\u2019 systems from companies like OpenAI is producing incorrect information more often. Even the companies don\u2019t know why.”)<\/p>\n While doing analysis for various articles, I have run across AI-created mistakes. Here are three recent examples:<\/p>\n With tariffs starting to affect automobile prices, analyzing the Great Recession pattern of dropping sales and production might offer good investment insight. In 2008, with sales drifting lower, there was an unusually large jump in automobile production. So, to Google with the question, “Why did automobile production increase in July 2008?” The AI answer appeared first, but it only offered suppositions without any supporting information.<\/p>\n However, below the Google AI response was the source of the answer: The New York Times <\/em>article (August 15, 2008), “Manufacturing Output Topped Forecasts in July<\/a>.” It provided the accurate, relevant details (underlining is mine):<\/p>\n \n “Industrial production, a measure of the volume of goods produced in the United States, slightly topped expectations in July, a bit of positive news for an economy buffeted by inflation and higher costs.\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n \n “In a report released Friday, the Federal Reserve said that industrial production grew 0.2 percent over the previous month. Economists had expected production to be flat.\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n \n “July\u2019s increase was largely driven by a 3.6 percent rise in the production of motor vehicles and parts. The automotive production number has increased in both of the last two months most likely not because of sales, which are at record lows, but because production had been unusually low because of a strike at an auto parts supplier, American Axle. Economists expect that production will slow down again in response to dismal demand.<\/u>”\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n![\"bitcoins](\"https:\/\/specials-images.forbesimg.com\/imageserve\/6820938d5ecbd36203646316\/A-warning-sign-appears-behind-the-word-disinformation-in-red-text--surrounded-by\/960x0.jpg?fit=scale\")
<\/p>Bitcoins But AI Knows More And Thinks Faster, Right?<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Bitcoins AI Failed To Explain An Aberrant Automobile Production Number<\/strong><\/h2>\n