{"id":854060,"date":"2025-06-07T22:12:23","date_gmt":"2025-06-08T03:12:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/07\/in-the-2025-national-election-the-liberals-misunderstood-the-outer-suburban-voters\/"},"modified":"2025-06-07T22:12:23","modified_gmt":"2025-06-08T03:12:23","slug":"in-the-2025-national-election-the-liberals-misunderstood-the-outer-suburban-voters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/07\/in-the-2025-national-election-the-liberals-misunderstood-the-outer-suburban-voters\/","title":{"rendered":"In the 2025 national election, the Liberals misunderstood the outer suburban voters."},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Efren Ramos did not have a good impression of the Liberals on <\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Volunteers for the party had swarmed polling booths in Ramos\u2019s western Sydney electorate of Werriwa and he remembers feeling overwhelmed by them.<\/span><\/p>\n

The 57-year-old says three Liberal volunteers approached him with how to vote cards.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not nice. Why three of you? Why not only one? It\u2019s intimidating,\u201d the Carnes Hill resident tells SBS News.<\/span><\/p>\n

For weeks, the Liberals had been chasing voters in outer suburban electorates like Werriwa, which it hoped would be key to forming government under now-former leader Peter Dutton.<\/span><\/p>\n

But the party\u2019s efforts appear to have been misguided, with its vote in these areas actually falling in this election.<\/span><\/p>\n

Almost every marginal Coalition seat in outer metropolitan areas flipped to Labor in a stunning reversal of fortune.<\/span><\/p>\n

The government picked up eight seats from the Coalition, including in Victoria, where the unpopularity of the state Labor government had been expected to be a drag on its vote.<\/span><\/p>\n

Labor has not yet lost any of its existing seats in outer suburban areas, although the result in Calwell is still to be decided.<\/span><\/p>\n

As of Saturday, election analysts Redbridge predict Labor will secure an overwhelming majority of 92 seats in the next parliament, up from the 77 seats it got in the 2022 election. <\/span><\/p>\n

Coalition seats have fallen from 58 to 40 \u2014 with seven seats still to be counted.<\/span><\/p>\n

So, how did the Coalition\u2019s strategy go so wrong?<\/span><\/p>\n

Wipeout of Coalition seats in outer suburban areas<\/h3>\n

In Sydney electorates like Werriwa, which has been held by Labor since 1919 (with the exception of one term), votes for the party actually increased.<\/span><\/p>\n

Speaking with SBS News days after the election, residents indicated there had been votes up for grabs.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe need change here, Labor\u2019s been in power [in western Sydney for] 80-odd years and nothing\u2019s changed \u2014 it\u2019s literally getting worse,\u201d resident Michelle Raguz says.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Prices are going up, the roads are ridiculous, the streets are ridiculous \u2014 potholes everywhere \u2014 we\u2019ve busted our tyres three, four times, the council says \u2018too bad\u2019.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n

Raguz is among a number of disgruntled voters SBS News spoke with, but she was the only one to cast a ballot for the Liberals.<\/span><\/p>\n

Before the election, Labor had a 5.3 per cent margin in Werriwa following a seat redistribution, which makes it a marginal seat. After last weekend\u2019s poll, Werriwa MP Anne Stanley has received a swing of around 1.2 per cent towards her. <\/span><\/p>\n

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\"Aerial<\/p>\n

Residents in suburbs like Austral in the electorate of Werriwa are very reliant on their cars to get around. Source: AAP \/ Dan Himbrechts<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

The nearby electorates of Macquarie and Macarthur in Sydney\u2019s south-west also recorded increased support for Labor.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

The seat of Hughes, a marginal seat in southern Sydney previously held by the Coalition, is now in Labor\u2019s hands.<\/span><\/p>\n

In Melbourne, the Coalition no longer holds any outer suburban seats after losing Deakin and Menzies to Labor.<\/span><\/p>\n

Calwell is the only electorate still to be decided, but is more likely to go to an independent if Labor loses.<\/span><\/p>\n

Across Australia, the post-election picture is equally grim for the Coalition.<\/span><\/p>\n

It now holds just seven of the 45 outer metropolitan electorates, which accounts for 15 per cent of total seats. In 2022, it held 16 of these electorates (35 per cent).<\/span><\/p>\n

In Brisbane, four seats held by the Coalition are now Labor\u2019s.<\/span><\/p>\n

The results fly in the face of commentary and polling leading up to election day, which suggested the Coalition could scoop up disenchanted voters in so-called commuter suburbs.<\/span><\/p>\n

Former Liberal MP Jason Falinski says the Coalition\u2019s strategy for the past three years has been focused on increasing its presence in these outer suburban areas and this was \u201cseen as the pathway to government\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dutton visited Labor electorates such as Hawke and McEwen in Victoria several times throughout the campaign.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\"Peter<\/p>\n

Peter Dutton held a campaign rally in the Labor-held seat of Hawke on 27 April. Source: AAP \/ Mick Tsikas<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\u201cThe decrease in the fuel excise \u2026 that was absolutely targeted at people in the outer suburbs who tend to have to travel further than people close to [the centre of] cities,\u201d Falinski tells SBS News.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\u201cIt would be fair to say that the strategy did not work,\u201d he says, noting it failed even in places like Victoria where \u201cLabor\u2019s brand was very much on the nose\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Coalition\u2019s \u2018strange\u2019 decision to focus on outer metropolitan areas<\/h3>\n

Falinski, who lost his seat of Mackellar in Sydney\u2019s northern beaches to independent Sophie Scamps in 2022, says it would be arrogant for him to suggest he understands why people voted the way they did, but says he did sense a \u201cgeneral theme\u201d from Labor that painted the Coalition as \u201crisky\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

This includes its messaging that Medicare was under threat, despite the Coalition pledging to match Labor\u2019s funding, and raising questions around how <\/span> would be funded and whether this would require cuts to the public service.<\/span><\/p>\n

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I think particularly for women with children, who are very sensitive to access to healthcare for themselves and their families, that became a lightning rod for them.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n

Falinski says concern around United States President Donald Trump\u2019s unpredictable actions on tariffs and the Russia-Ukraine war also made people more risk-averse.<\/span><\/p>\n

But analysts have told SBS News there were other factors at play in outer suburban seats.<\/span><\/p>\n

Amy Remeikis, chief political analyst at the Australia Institute, says the Coalition\u2019s focus on these electorates, in particular, was a \u201cstrange\u201d strategy considering there is little historical data to suggest these seats would swing to the Coalition, or that voters had any strong affinity for it.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\"The<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\u201cI think it\u2019s something that the party room might have convinced themselves was happening,\u201d Remeikis says.<\/span><\/p>\n

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The outer metropolitan seats that the Coalition were targeting have never swung very hard to the Coalition.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n

Remeikis says she doesn\u2019t understand why the Coalition didn\u2019t target seats it had previously held, such as those in the inner city.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWouldn\u2019t you go to the seats where you actually previously had support rather than these ones that have never \u2014 even with the demographic changes \u2014 swung comprehensively to you?\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2018Hi vis\u2019 campaign missed the mark<\/h3>\n

Remeikis says there was also very little in the Coalition\u2019s platform to appeal to the voters they were trying to win over.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThey formed their campaign [around] what they thought these outer suburban seats actually wanted \u2014 which was basically an entirely high-vis campaign,\u201d she says.<\/span><\/p>\n

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It was entirely geared towards tradies and people who drove very big utes. But they missed out on pensioners, they missed out on young families. They missed out on women.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n

\u201cThey missed out on people who were living below the poverty line, all of which you find represented in [these seats].\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

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\"Peter<\/p>\n

Peter Dutton\u2019s campaign was too narrowly focused on utes and tradies, one expert says. Source: AAP \/ Mick Tsikas<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Redbridge Group director Simon Welsh thinks some of Dutton\u2019s culture war comments about reducing immigration and <\/span> were also misguided.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

He says if outer suburban areas were the target audience for that type of messaging, they aren\u2019t what the Liberals imagine them to be.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThey are young, they are diverse [and] they are increasingly progressive,\u201d he says.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe culture wars messaging is a clear values disconnect.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Werriwa, for example, has one of the highest proportions of millennial voters in Australia. Around half of its adult population (aged over 16) is under 45 years old. The median age is 34, which is lower than the average for NSW (39).<\/span><\/p>\n

The electorate also has a highly diverse population, with more than 50 per cent of residents having been born overseas and 77 per cent with at least one parent born overseas.<\/span><\/p>\n

Falinski acknowledges that when the Coalition indulges in culture war issues, its vote fractures.<\/span><\/p>\n

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If [issues are] framed in cultural terms, we\u2019re losing the debate, if they\u2019re framed in economic terms, we\u2019re winning the debate.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n

Falinski says every political party has an electoral hand to play that galvanises voters, and for the Liberals, it tends to be economic issues.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe 2019 election \u2014 which we shouldn\u2019t have won \u2014 was about economic issues, specifically tax and franking credits. Our electoral coalition \u2026 in rural, regional and urban areas, all came together to unite and provide us with a surprise victory,\u201d he says.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\"List<\/p>\n

Seats that have changed hands in outer metropolitan electorates around Australia are marked in different colours. Source: SBS News<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Labor\u2019s education and health policies were a vote-winner<\/h3>\n

Carnes Hill resident Ramos, who was put off by overzealous Liberal volunteers in Werriwa on election day, says he doesn\u2019t always vote for Labor but did this time, partly because of its plan to reduce HECS debts by 20 per cent \u2014 which would be good for his son.<\/span><\/p>\n

His impression of Dutton was that he was \u201ctoo angry\u201d and he also didn\u2019t like the proposed public service cuts because his wife works in the sector and works from home.<\/span><\/p>\n

While Dutton backtracked on scrapping work-from-home arrangements, Ramos says he wasn\u2019t sure if he really meant it, especially because English is not Ramos\u2019 first language.<\/span><\/p>\n

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When my wife is at home, it\u2019s good for me too. When I come home, the dinner\u2019s already ready.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n

Werriwa MP Anne Stanley says voters wanted what Labor was offering \u2014 support for Medicare, a reduction of HECS debt, more people going to TAFE and money for road upgrades.<\/span><\/p>\n

She says Labor has also promised to build an urgent care clinic and a mental health facility in Werriwa.<\/span><\/p>\n

When asked about criticism of Labor\u2019s performance over the years, Stanley acknowledged some federally funded road upgrades had not yet been delivered, and said she also needed to be better at publicising what they have done.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve got funding for local schools, we\u2019ve got university hubs \u2026. we\u2019ve got significant funding for roads,\u201d she tells SBS News.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI think also we have a very good track record on supporting Medicare, on reducing the costs of medicines, of supporting pensioners.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

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\"Anthony<\/p>\n

Werriwa MP Anne Stanley, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, announced an upgrade to Fifteenth Avenue, located in the electorate of Werriwa, in January this year. Source: AAP \/ Jeremy Ng<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

During her door knocking, Stanley says voters were sceptical about whether Coalition policies like the fuel excise cut would actually make a difference to their weekly petrol bills. She also noted concerns about its nuclear energy and working-from-home policies.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Selina Rice, who has traditionally voted Labor, this year supported the minor party, the Trumpet of Patriots, because she didn\u2019t want either major party to get her vote.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m sick of Labor and Liberal, they keep saying they\u2019re going to do this, do that \u2026 and nothing changes, it just gets worse,\u201d the 52-year-old says.<\/span><\/p>\n

The cost of living, including petrol prices, was the most important issue for her, and even though the Coalition promised to lower the fuel excise, Rice was sceptical they would actually deliver.<\/span><\/p>\n

Support for the Greens increases<\/h3>\n

The primary vote for the Greens Party also increased this year, including a 4.5 per cent swing towards them in Werriwa. The party increased its vote in neighbouring Macquarie and Macarthur as well.<\/span><\/p>\n

Werriwa constituent Connor Thomson, who voted for the Greens first and Labor second, is a blue-collar worker and first-time voter. His family have traditionally voted for Labor, but Thomson says he liked the Greens\u2019 policy on free education in particular and was also swayed by footage of <\/span> playing the popular online video game Fortnite.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI thought the nuclear plan from Liberals was okay but the $600 billion, that\u2019s just way too much money,\u201d the 18-year-old tells SBS News.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\"A<\/p>\n

A sign warning voters \u201cDon\u2019t risk Dutton\u201d remains in place in Werriwa this week after election day. Source: SBS News<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Thomson was also put off by the Coalition\u2019s right-wing associations.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re Australia, we\u2019re not for that,\u201d he says.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThat turned me off Liberal, even though I was never going to vote for them.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Another first-time voter, Guven Gergoy, 20, also voted for the Greens because, in his view, the party seemed to have the best housing policies.<\/span><\/p>\n

Over the course of the campaign, Gergoy says he heard mostly negative commentary about Dutton, including that he wanted to get rid of Medicare, that he was \u201csuper rich\u201d and had made money buying bank shares days before news of a bailout was announced during the global financial crisis.<\/span><\/p>\n

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[Dutton] said all young people need to do to get a house is save diligently, and he got his at 19 [years old], which I\u2019m sure back then it was a different situation.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n

The Edmondson Park resident had a more positive impression of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, even though he says his mother held a negative view because Labor had not reduced the cost of energy bills as promised.<\/span><\/p>\n

The way forward<\/h3>\n

Falinski says the Coalition needs to spend the next year having meaningful conversations with communities across Australia and gain a clear understanding of what their lives are like.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIn the year after that, we need to focus on explaining to people how we think we can help them,\u201d he says.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIn the third year, we need to be announcing policies that do that, and adjusting those policies if it turns out they\u2019re not going to work for people.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

He says this shouldn\u2019t be done just before or in the middle of a campaign.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI do think there was too much focus [this year] on \u2018[are] we going to win the election or not?\u2019 rather than what do we need to do to give Australians a credible alternative.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

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For the latest from SBS News, <\/span><\/i><\/b> <\/span>and <\/span><\/i><\/b>.<\/span><\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Efren Ramos did not have a good impression of the Liberals on . Volunteers for the party had swarmed polling booths in Ramos\u2019s western Sydney electorate of Werriwa and he remembers feeling overwhelmed by them. The 57-year-old says three Liberal volunteers approached him with how to vote cards. \u201cIt\u2019s not nice. Why three of you?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":854061,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[301,3574],"tags":[7805,5384],"class_list":{"0":"post-854060","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-election","8":"category-national","9":"tag-election","10":"tag-national"},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/854060","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=854060"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/854060\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/854061"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=854060"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=854060"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=854060"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}