{"id":853211,"date":"2025-06-04T00:12:04","date_gmt":"2025-06-04T05:12:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/04\/bitcoin-still-far-from-a-true-supply-shock-analyst-explains\/"},"modified":"2025-06-04T00:12:04","modified_gmt":"2025-06-04T05:12:04","slug":"bitcoin-still-far-from-a-true-supply-shock-analyst-explains","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/04\/bitcoin-still-far-from-a-true-supply-shock-analyst-explains\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Still Far From A True Supply Shock, Analyst Explains"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoins <\/p>\n<div>\n<figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img width=\"860\" height=\"572\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/bitcoin_67ac71.jpg?fit=860%2C572\" alt=\"bitcoins bitcoin\" loading=\"eager\" decoding=\"auto\" fetchpriority=\"high\"  >\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<h3>Reason to trust<\/h3>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/logo.png\"><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n                <svg width=\"12\" height=\"12\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\" fill=\"currentColor\"><path d=\"M10.2492 0.703125L4.75078 7.95234L1.5 4.70391L0 6.20391L4.99922 11.2031L12 2.20312L10.2492 0.703125Z\" \/><\/svg>      <\/p>\n<p>Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div>\n                <svg width=\"12\" height=\"12\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\" fill=\"currentColor\"><path d=\"M10.2492 0.703125L4.75078 7.95234L1.5 4.70391L0 6.20391L4.99922 11.2031L12 2.20312L10.2492 0.703125Z\" \/><\/svg>      <\/p>\n<p>Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div>\n                <svg width=\"12\" height=\"12\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\" fill=\"currentColor\"><path d=\"M10.2492 0.703125L4.75078 7.95234L1.5 4.70391L0 6.20391L4.99922 11.2031L12 2.20312L10.2492 0.703125Z\" \/><\/svg>      <\/p>\n<p>The highest standards in reporting and publishing<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<h5>How Our News is Made<\/h5>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<h5>Ad discliamer<\/h5>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><span>According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Carmelo Aleman, Bitcoin (BTC) is \u201cstill far from a true supply shock.\u201d The analyst cited several on-chain metrics to argue that despite declining exchange reserves, the leading cryptocurrency is unlikely to face genuine supply scarcity in the near term.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Bitcoins <span>Bitcoin Supply Shock? Not Just Yet<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span>Since April 21, BTC has been trading within a tight range between $91,500 and $95,800, offering few signals about its next directional move. While some analysts have repeatedly highlighted a potential supply shock that could drive Bitcoin\u2019s price much higher, Aleman\u2019s analysis offers a more cautious outlook.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>According to Aleman, BTC reserves on centralized exchanges (CEXs) have declined steadily over the past year. Specifically, reserves dropped from 2,942,077 BTC on November 11, to 2,490,318 BTC as of April 28 \u2013 marking a 15.35% decrease in just five months.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_741318\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-741318\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/chart-1-1.png?resize=2538%2C1401\" alt=\"bitcoins exchange reserves\" width=\"2538\" height=\"1401\"   loading=\"lazy\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-741318\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoquant.com\/insights\/quicktake\/68114fdc1babdc65a688e86e-Is-a-Bitcoin-Supply-Shock-Approaching\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">CryptoQuant<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span>During the same period, Bitcoin\u2019s Realized Capitalization \u2013 a metric that calculates the total value of BTC based on the price at which each coin last moved \u2013 has surged from $669.32 billion to $883.03 billion. This reflects an increase in the actual capital invested in the Bitcoin network, rather than market speculation alone.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_741330\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-741330\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/chart-2-1.png?resize=2538%2C1343\" alt=\"bitcoins chart 2\" width=\"2538\" height=\"1343\"   loading=\"lazy\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-741330\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoquant.com\/insights\/quicktake\/68114fdc1babdc65a688e86e-Is-a-Bitcoin-Supply-Shock-Approaching\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">CryptoQuant<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span>Aleman explains that as BTC becomes more \u201cexpensive,\u201d a purchase of approximately 500,000 BTC at current prices could potentially drive the cryptocurrency\u2019s price to $130,000\u2013$140,000. However, he cautions that such a scenario would likely trigger significant selling pressure from miners. He adds:<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span>This behavior could counteract the decline in exchange reserves, since historically, miners tend to sell more as the price goes up. So even if reserves keep falling, a price surge would likely encourage enough selling to partially offset that drop.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span>The analyst concludes that a true supply shock in this market cycle is unlikely unless Bitcoin sees a massive influx of capital \u2013 enough to push its Realized Capitalization to three or four times its current level.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Bitcoins <span>Technicals Point Toward BTC Breakout<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span>Despite the low probability of a supply-driven rally, all is not lost for the leading digital asset. Several technical indicators point toward an impending <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/bitcoin-news\/bitcoin-rally-ahead-analysts-say-these-key-indicators-look-bullish\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span>bullish<\/span><\/a><span> rally for the cryptocurrency.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Notably, Bitcoin\u2019s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/bitcoin-news\/bitcoin-weekly-rsi-breakout-signals-trend-shift-is-100000-next-for-btc\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span>broke<\/span><\/a><span> a long-standing downward trendline, indicating a potential momentum shift. This development could help BTC reclaim the $100,000 mark in the coming weeks.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>In addition, recent on-chain data shows that short-term holders are <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/bitcoin-news\/shifting-sentiment-short-term-bitcoin-holders-stay-put-despite-losses\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span>refraining<\/span><\/a><span> from selling their BTC \u2013 even while in the red \u2013 which may signal growing investor confidence and a potential bullish reversal. At press time, BTC trades at $94,374, down 0.4% in the past 24 hours.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_741316\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-741316\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/bitcoin_f3ca00.png?resize=2648%2C1682\" alt=\"bitcoins bitcoin\" width=\"2648\" height=\"1682\"  ><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-741316\">BTC trades at $94,374 on the daily chart | Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\" target=\"_blank\">BTCUSDT on TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Featured image created with Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"author-box\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"bitcoins Ash Tiwari\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-e1726141599158.jpg?resize=200%2C200\"  height=\"80\" width=\"80\">\t\t<\/p>\n<div id=\"fbc01e4aedb31ca456077b120637ec78f73ec073\">\n<p>Ash is a dedicated crypto researcher and blockchain enthusiast with a passion for diving deep into the evolving world of decentralized technologies. With a background in writing and a natural curiosity for how digital assets are shaping the future, he has immersed himself in various sectors of the cryptocurrency space, including decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs, and liquidity mining. His journey into crypto started with a desire to fully understand the technology behind it, leading him to explore and engage with these systems firsthand.<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Ash\u2019s approach to DeFi goes beyond surface-level research as he actively participates in decentralized protocols, testing their functionality to gain a deeper understanding of how they operate. From experimenting with staking mechanisms to exploring liquidity mining strategies, he is hands-on in his exploration, which allows him to provide practical, real-world insights that go far beyond theoretical knowledge. This immersive experience has helped him develop a comprehensive grasp of smart contracts, token governance, and the broader implications of decentralized platforms on the future of finance.<\/p>\n<p>In the NFT space, Ash\u2019s interest is driven by the technology\u2019s potential to reshape ownership and creativity in the digital age. He has explored various NFT projects, gaining insights into how these digital assets function within different ecosystems. His focus is on understanding the evolving relationship between creators and communities, as well as the innovative uses of blockchain technology to establish authenticity and provenance in the digital world. Ash\u2019s research in this area often touches on the intersection of culture, technology, and community-driven projects.<\/p>\n<p>A key area of his expertise lies in liquidity mining, where he has engaged with various decentralized platforms to understand how liquidity provision contributes to the functionality and security of DeFi ecosystems. Ash\u2019s hands-on involvement has allowed him to analyze the risks, rewards, and broader implications of liquidity pools, giving him a well-rounded perspective on this integral part of DeFi. His understanding of risk management and protocol design allows him to provide insights into how these systems can be navigated effectively, with an emphasis on both opportunity and caution.<\/p>\n<p>When it comes to communicating these complex topics, Ash\u2019s writing is grounded in clarity and depth. He excels at breaking down intricate blockchain concepts into easily digestible information for a wide audience. Whether explaining the workings of decentralized exchanges or outlining the future potential of blockchain technology, Ash ensures that his content is accessible to both those new to the space and experienced participants looking for deeper insights.<\/p>\n<p>Beyond DeFi and NFTs, Ash explores a wide array of emerging blockchain applications. His research spans areas like cross-chain technologies, decentralized governance, and blockchain\u2019s potential to integrate with traditional finance. He is continuously learning and adapting to the latest developments, ensuring that his insights are both timely and relevant. His interest extends to how these technologies are creating new possibilities for decentralization, transparency, and trust in a variety of industries.<\/p>\n<p>Ash\u2019s commitment to engaging with the crypto space firsthand gives him a unique perspective that goes beyond what can be learned from research alone. His practical involvement allows him to stay ahead of the curve, offering readers and enthusiasts a clear and comprehensive understanding of the rapidly evolving world of blockchain. Whether delving into the technical mechanics of DeFi or exploring the cultural impact of NFTs, Ash\u2019s approach is always rooted in curiosity, research, and a desire to make this technology accessible to all.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><strong>Disclaimer:<\/strong> The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes<br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tonly. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any<br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tinvestments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own<br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tresearch before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website<br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tentirely at your own risk.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p> Ash Tiwari <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/bitcoin-news\/bitcoin-still-far-from-a-true-supply-shock-analyst-explains\/\" class=\"button purchase\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing How Our News is Made Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Ad discliamer Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":853212,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4041,1441],"tags":[11476],"class_list":["post-853211","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bitcoin","category-still","tag-bitcoins"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/853211","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=853211"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/853211\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/853212"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=853211"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=853211"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=853211"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}