{"id":846873,"date":"2025-05-08T23:12:09","date_gmt":"2025-05-09T04:12:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/08\/bitcoin-key-metric-suggests-bull-cycle-is-over\/"},"modified":"2025-05-08T23:12:09","modified_gmt":"2025-05-09T04:12:09","slug":"bitcoin-key-metric-suggests-bull-cycle-is-over","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/08\/bitcoin-key-metric-suggests-bull-cycle-is-over\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin: Key metric suggests \u2018bull cycle is over\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoins <\/p>\n<div id=\"single-post-wrapper\">\n<p><img width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" alt=\"bitcoins The Bitcoin 'bull cycle is over' according to THIS metric- Should you sell now?\" decoding=\"async\" fetchpriority=\"high\"   data-old-src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg'%20viewBox='0%200%201200%20675'%3E%3C\/svg%3E\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Bitcoin-Featured-1-1200x675.webp 1200w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Bitcoin-Featured-1-300x169.webp 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Bitcoin-Featured-1-1024x576.webp 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Bitcoin-Featured-1-768x432.webp 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Bitcoin-Featured-1-1536x864.webp 1536w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Bitcoin-Featured-1.webp 1920w\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Bitcoin-Featured-1-1200x675.webp\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-del=\"avatar\" alt=\"bitcoins Avatar\" height=\"48\" width=\"48\" data-old-src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg'%20viewBox='0%200%2048%2048'%3E%3C\/svg%3E\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/IMG-20240403-WA00082-e1712207583881-80x80.jpg\"><\/p>\n<p>Journalist<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div>\n<h4>Share this article<\/h4>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div>\n<ul>\n<li><em>The negative trend of the market cap vs. the realized cap is historically a bearish signal<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>The halt in the Tether reserve growth pointed to stable, rather than increasing, buying power<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/bitcoin-as-global-m2-is-goes-parabolic-is-btc-ready-to-explode\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">global M2<\/a>, a money supply classification that includes money market funds, refers to the money supply from major economies such as the U.S.A., China, and the Eurozone.<\/p>\n<p>In a recent report, it was noted that the global M2 money supply went parabolic in 2025 while <span><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/category\/bitcoin-news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">Bitcoin [BTC]<\/a><\/span>\u00a0was consolidating.<\/p>\n<p>Historically, such divergences do not last long. Hence, there is a chance for Bitcoin to appreciate.<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, the trade war initiated by the U.S. has dented investor confidence. <a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/bitcoin-as-u-s-china-trade-war-returns-is-btc-the-markets-last-refuge\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">China\u2019s retaliatory 34% tariff<\/a> on the 2nd\u00a0of April deepened tensions, affecting the crypto market as well.<\/p>\n<h2>Bitcoins <strong>Assessing the bearish arguments for Bitcoin<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>The Bitcoin spot ETFs have been weak in recent days. The pessimistic macroeconomic outlook as a result of the ongoing trade wars was a factor here.<\/p>\n<p>Blackrock\u2019s spot ETF IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF) saw some inflows in the past two weeks, but most other products have witnessed selling pressure recently. This outlined a bearish short-term sentiment.<\/p>\n<p>Amidst this bearish backdrop, the CEO and Co-Founder of popular crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant stated that the \u201cbull cycle is over\u201d.<\/p>\n<h2>Bitcoins <strong>Is the BTC bull cycle over?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>In a <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ki_young_ju\/status\/1908537068420304974\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow external noreferrer\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">post on X (formerly Twitter)<\/a>, he explained the concept of the Realized Cap to support this argument.<\/p>\n<p><span>The Market Cap of an asset is calculated by multiplying its circulating supply with its current market price.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>In contrast, the Realized Cap measures Bitcoin\u2019s market capitalization based on the value at which each coin was last moved. This provides a more accurate view of the capital flowing into the Bitcoin market.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>The analyst used 365-day Moving Averages (MA) for both Market Cap and Realized Cap to calculate the 365-day MA of the delta growth. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>A decline in this metric signals a rising realized cap paired with a falling market cap\u2014a trend observed since November-December 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Ki Young Ju emphasized that capital inflows failing to drive price gains indicate a bear market. At the time of analysis, the delta growth\u2019s MA was negative, which aligns with bear market conditions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>A similar situation occurred in December 2021, following Bitcoin\u2019s previous all-time high of $69k and its subsequent decline. Ju also predicted that a short-term rally is unlikely, and this bearish phase could persist for another six months.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>According to the realized cap data, the onset of another bear market appeared possible. Meanwhile, on the other hand, the exchange reserve of Tether [USDT] has halted its growth in recent months.<\/p>\n<p>Opposing these views, the rising global M2 mentioned earlier pointed toward rising buying power in the market.<\/p>\n<p>A slowdown in the Tether reserve growth accompanied the previous market top.<\/p>\n<p>The data here suggested another bear market could be underway, but it must be noted that none of the usual cycle-top metrics have yet reached overheated levels mirroring the previous cycle.<\/p>\n<div>\n<h4>Share<\/h4>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p> Akashnath S <a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/bitcoin-key-metric-suggests-bull-cycle-is-over-should-you-sell-now\/\" class=\"button purchase\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Journalist Share this article The negative trend of the market cap vs. the realized cap is historically a bearish signal The halt in the Tether reserve growth pointed to stable, rather than increasing, buying power The global M2, a money supply classification that includes money market funds, refers to the money supply from major economies<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":846874,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4041,25322],"tags":[11476],"class_list":["post-846873","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bitcoin","category-metric","tag-bitcoins"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/846873","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=846873"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/846873\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/846874"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=846873"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=846873"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=846873"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}