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- Crypto index fund management firm Bitwise\u2019s chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, said he believes now is the \u201cbest time in history\u201d to invest in Bitcoin, on a risk-adjusted basis.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Hougan said that while early investors in Bitcoin saw bigger returns than people investing now are likely to see, they also had to take huge risks.<\/span><\/li>\n
- He argues that all the major risks have now been addressed \u2014 including the risk the US could ban Bitcoin \u2014 but there\u2019s still the potential for very large gains.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
According to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer (CIO) at crypto-focussed asset management firm Bitwise<\/a>, there\u2019s never been a better time to invest in Bitcoin<\/a> (BTC)\u2026on a risk-adjust basis, that is.<\/p>\n
You may be thinking, \u201cBut Matt, buying Bitcoin in 2010 seems like it would\u2019ve been a better time.\u201d In his article<\/a>, published March 25, Hougan explained why he believes now is a better time to buy \u2014 and it all comes down to risk.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\nIn its earliest days, bitcoin was a little like a lottery ticket: huge upside, but equally huge risks.<\/em><\/p>\n
![](\"https:\/\/cdn.cryptonews.com.au\/2025\/03\/27142257\/Matt-Hougan-Bitwise-CIO.jpg\")
Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO <\/p>\n<\/div>\nHougan argued that while early Bitcoin investors saw bigger gains than those investing today are likely to see, they were also exposed to much larger risks. The Bitwise CIO said that with the rise of reliable exchanges and advances like the launch of Bitcoin ETFs<\/a> and Trump\u2019s<\/a> executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve<\/a>, all the major risks associated with investing in Bitcoin have been addressed.<\/p>\n
\nI believe that today\u2014right now\u2014marks the single best moment in history to buy bitcoin on a risk-adjusted basis.<\/em><\/p>\n
Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO <\/p>\n<\/div>\nRelated:<\/strong> <\/strong>GameStop Adopts Bitcoin as Treasury Reserve, Shares Surge on Cryptocurrency Strategy<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n
Early Adopters of Bitcoin Took Big Risks<\/h2>\n
Hougan shared the story of when he personally missed his chance to buy Bitcoin back in 2011: after being told about Bitcoin\u2019s potential by a colleague he decided to go grab a coffee instead of immediately buying US$1000 worth of Bitcoin. Had he invested then, his US$1000 would now be worth around US$88 million.<\/p>\n
Hougan points out, though, that Bitcoin was still very much in its infancy in those days and investors had to deal with all kinds of questionable websites and shady characters to get their hands on some Bitcoin. He referred to the fact that a leading crypto exchange at the time \u2014 New Liberty Financial \u2014 handled exchanges through Paypal via a gmail address and described its service as a \u201cpersonal hobby\u201d.<\/p>\n
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Disclaimer from New Liberty Standard website from 2010. Source:<\/em> <\/em>Wayback machine<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n
\nIn hindsight, it\u2019s easy to say I should have bought $1,000 of bitcoin. But at the time, that meant sending $1,000 to a random PayPal address. Throw in custody, regulatory, technological, and governmental risks \u2026 and putting $1,000 on bitcoin in 2011 was a massive gamble.<\/em><\/p>\n
Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO <\/p>\n<\/div>\nAs Bitcoin Has Matured, Risks Have Decreased Significantly\u00a0<\/h2>\n
As Bitcoin matured as a technology the risks associated with investing in it have dropped substantially, massively improving the risk versus reward calculation, according to Hougan.<\/p>\n
Hougan said most serious risks associated with Bitcoin have been addressed over the years, including the emergence of safe exchanges for trading crypto and secure custody solutions for holding it. He also alludes to \u201clegitimate concerns\u201d about criminal activity regulation, and mining concentration, but claims that bitcoin has overcome every one of these \u201cexistential risks\u201d.<\/p>\n
When Bitcoin ETFs emerged in early 2024, Hougan said that addressed another major risk by providing regulatory clarity to institutional investors. However, one major risk remained: the risk that the US government would ban Bitcoin.\u00a0<\/p>\n
That risk essentially evaporated earlier this month, according to Hougan, when Trump signed the executive order<\/a> establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the US. Hougan said Trump has signalled the US government now sees Bitcoin not so much as a rival to the US dollar\u2019s status as the global reserve currency, but instead as the \u201cbest backup plan on the market\u201d should anything go seriously wrong with the fiat system:<\/p>\n
\nThe best-case scenario for the U.S. is that the dollar remains the world\u2019s reserve currency. But if we get to the point where that\u2019s at risk, we\u2019re better off moving to bitcoin than something like the Chinese yuan.<\/em><\/p>\n
Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO <\/p>\n<\/div>\n - Hougan said that while early investors in Bitcoin saw bigger returns than people investing now are likely to see, they also had to take huge risks.<\/span><\/li>\n