Soccer <\/p>\n
The 2025 season is nearly a quarter done, which means underlying numbers really are starting to tell us some stuff.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
With that in mind, here\u2019s one telling stat (from Opta unless otherwise noted) for each Western Conference team, in order of points per game:<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
Stat:<\/strong> Over 9,000<\/p>\n Look, I\u2019m too old to have watched that show, but I understand the point of the meme. And here it is in soccer form, courtesy of John Muller:<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n There is simply no one stat to capture the breadth and depth of Vancouver<\/a>\u2019s year-over-year improvement. They are better in literally every way you\u2019d want a team to be better, have become sustainable in ways you\u2019d want them to be sustainable, and oh yeah, are playing a brand of soccer that makes them one of the three S-Tier teams in the league when it comes to aesthetics.<\/p>\n In John\u2019s words on BlueSky, \u201cIs it time to do it anyway just to laugh incredulously at what the Whitecaps are doing? Hell yes.\u201d<\/p>\n Sometimes when I\u2019m watching a great TV show, there are scenes so perfectly written, acted, and directed that I get goosebumps and just sort of start giggling maniacally at how beautiful it is.<\/p>\n That\u2019s what it\u2019s like watching the Vancouver Whitecaps play soccer this year. Jesper S\u00f8rensen for king IMO.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Stat:<\/strong> 36.3%<\/p>\n I can\u2019t get over how little of the ball the Loons<\/a> are getting. For as far back as we have possession data, the previous lowest percent I can find is 41.2%, by the 2017 \u2018Caps. Usually, the lowest possession mark in the league is around 43 or 44 percent.<\/p>\n Eric Ramsay\u2019s very obviously got himself a different sort of game model, one that 1) is very effective \u2013 they\u2019re second in the West on PPG, after all, and 2) generates a ton of high-quality looks. Which is to say they lead the league in big chances (tied with the \u2018Caps and, surprisingly, Orlando<\/a>), are third in xG per shot and are fifth in the percentage of their shots they take from inside the box.<\/p>\n I love that we have such variation among the top two teams in the conference. Vancouver and Minnesota could not be more different in how they approach the game. The fact that it\u2019s working so well for both is one of the things I love most about this league.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Stat:<\/strong> 0.71<\/p>\n That\u2019s Zack Steffen<\/a>\u2019s goals saved over expected per 90 so far this season. It\u2019s the highest number in the American Soccer Analysis database for any \u2018keeper who\u2019s played 500+ minutes in a season, going back to 2013, and to put into context how good he\u2019s been: Steffen\u2019s number is 42% better than Djordje Petrovi\u0107\u2019s 2022 masterclass that got him a $20 million move to Chelsea (the single best shot-stopping season I\u2019ve ever seen in MLS), and about 70% better than Matt Turner\u2019s best MLS year.<\/p>\n I\u2019m doing quarter-season awards next week, and somebody\u2019s going to need to talk me out of putting Steffen as the MVP thus far this year.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n \u2014 Major League Soccer (@MLS) March 16, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote><\/div>\n This guy\u2019s on an all-time heater. And Colorado<\/a>, who haven\u2019t played great, have needed all of it.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Stat:<\/strong> 8.3<\/p>\n I\u2019m still skeptical of Portland<\/a>\u2019s relatively hot start here \u2013 they\u2019ve played a pretty easy schedule, looked overwhelmed against the two quality teams they\u2019ve faced so far, and are basically limited to transition moments for consistent attacking effectiveness (something head coach Phil Neville referenced in his postgame presser last week).<\/p>\n However, they’re maybe not quite as bad defensively as the underlying numbers say? Their total xG allowed through eight games is 11.5, good for just the 10th-best defense in the West and in the bottom third of the league overall. However, their non-penalty xG faced is 8.3, which bumps them towards the top of West standings (it\u2019s worth noting James Pantemis<\/a> has saved three of the four penalties he\u2019s faced \u2013 he\u2019s been awesome).<\/p>\n So are the penalties they\u2019re conceding a feature or a bug? I don\u2019t know yet. What I do know is if they can cut it out, they\u2019ve got a good chance of finishing top four and getting home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs come autumn.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Stat:<\/strong> 25<\/p>\n Los Ni\u00f1os<\/a> are among that trio of teams playing that S-Tier, beautiful, effective soccer. At the start of the season, I thought it was all going to come from pure possession, which leads to pitch control, which leads to the types of positional play (sorry for all the alliteration) goals we\u2019ve seen in years past from the likes of the Dynamo<\/a> or the best versions of NYCFC<\/a>.<\/p>\n There is still an element of that, but it\u2019s not who San Diego<\/a> are. What they are is a possession-dominant team that tends to hold possession deeper to draw the opponents upfield, allowing one DP winger to pinch inside while the other runs in behind. Or sometimes it\u2019s the center forward (Onni Valakari<\/a>, a midfielder by trade, has been a revelation as a false 9) dropping in to release both wingers.<\/p>\n Or sometimes it\u2019s d-mid Jeppe Tverskov<\/a>. Hell, even right back Jasper L\u00f6ffelsend<\/a> gets in on the act:<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n \u2014 Major League Soccer (@MLS) April 6, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote><\/div>\n And so they\u2019ve hit 25 through-balls this year. Nobody else has hit more than 16. The Whitecaps and Crew<\/a> combined have hit 20.<\/p>\n It\u2019s like they\u2019ve fused the principles of the \u2018Caps and the Loons into one gorgeous game model.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Stat:<\/strong> 0.161<\/p>\n The idea for La Verde<\/a>, at least to start the year, seems to be something Minnesota-ish in terms of where they draw their line of confrontation (really deep), how much of the ball they get (not much!), and how they create their chances (on the break).<\/p>\n The issue is the Loons have Robin Lod<\/a> and Joaqu\u00edn Pereyra<\/a> in central midfield, diming up runners and exploiting space created by that low block.<\/p>\n Austin\u2019s midfielders haven\u2019t been able to do that, and so record signing Myrto Uzuni<\/a> \u2013 an open-field terror in Spain, both in LaLiga and the Segunda Liga \u2013 is suffering. He\u2019s managed just 0.161 xG in transition this year, which is 71st in the league. Not good enough.<\/p>\n They need to start getting him looks, and while they\u2019re at it, they need to figure out how to get Uzuni and Brandon Vazquez<\/a> on the same page.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Stat:<\/strong> 30.75<\/p>\n That\u2019s the number of possessions LAFC<\/a> are generating per game that end in the attacking third, which is just 20th in the league. Last year, they were ninth with 36.26. In 2023, they were second with 40.79. In 2022, they were first with 42.08.<\/p>\n So forget, for a moment, Denis Bouanga<\/a>\u2019s slow start to the season, or Olivier Giroud\u2019<\/a>s struggles, or the fact that the electric David Mart\u00ednez<\/a> has seen his role reduced over the past month. And think, instead, about the types of classy, ball-playing midfielders who\u2019ve been shown the door over the past few years \u2013 including Eduard Atuesta<\/a> and Ilie S\u00e1nchez<\/a> after last season.<\/p>\n Then think about this meme (I can\u2019t remember who created it; apologies!) for a second:<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n LAFC are squarely in the \u201cball magically moves to other side of the pitch, dw\u201d phase. They have, I think, prioritized grit and field coverage over progressive passing ability, and they\u2019ve become a less dynamic, more predictable attacking team because of it.<\/p>\n I joked<\/a> at the start of the year that \u201cit\u2019s rare to see a team\u2019s philosophy and personnel aligned so perfectly, but LAFC have done it. They\u2019ve spent the past three years slowly getting rid of all their creative midfielders, and now they play like a team that doesn\u2019t have any creative midfielders.\u201d<\/p>\n I really wasn\u2019t joking, though.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Stat:<\/strong> 23.7%<\/p>\n Lucho Acosta<\/a> is getting nearly 25% of Dallas<\/a>\u2019s total touches in the attacking third, which is not a bad thing. The whole point of having a No. 10 is for that guy to get on the ball in good spots and either solve problems for your team or cause problems for the opposing team, and Acosta\u2019s doing some of both. He\u2019s still doing it at a high level, too \u2013 he\u2019s completing 4.2 passes over his expected (per 100 passes), which tells you there\u2019s still precision to go with the raw creativity he brings to the table.<\/p>\n The problem is that these numbers are all down from 2024:<\/p>\n I don\u2019t think this is a Lucho thing. I think this is a chemistry thing, and a \u201cthe run makes the pass\u201d kind of thing. As in, the other Dallas attackers haven\u2019t figured out how to be dynamic off the ball, which has made Lucho less dynamic on the ball.<\/p>\n They\u2019ve got to figure out how to get this man some options.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Stat:<\/strong> 33.0<\/p>\n The Quakes<\/a> have generated the most expected goals in the league, with 16.7. The Quakes have conceded the most expected goals in the league, with 16.3. Add \u2018em up.<\/p>\n The next closest teams, in terms of total xG generated across all their games, are San Diego and Orlando with just over 26. Quakes games are wild<\/em>, man. Just pure chaosball.<\/p>\n I can assure you, however, that Bruce Arena and staff are working on how to tighten things up as the season trucks along, as this is no way to actually go out and win a trophy (which is where Bruce\u2019s sights have always been set). They need to figure out how to get more pressure on the ball through their first two lines so that the defense isn\u2019t constantly scrambling and so Daniel<\/a>, their outstanding goalkeeper, is not always having to be Superman.<\/p>\n Can they do it without throttling back on what’s been a pretty outrageous attack so far?<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Stat:<\/strong> 0.070<\/p>\n The Jes\u00fas Ferreira<\/a> false 9 thing has not worked for the Sounders<\/a>. Ferreira\u2019s a good player, and I still think it was the right decision to acquire him, and I expect it to work out long-term (though probably as a second forward rather than a false 9).<\/p>\n But you can see the difference between his effectiveness in the attacking third in xG per shot compared to the two true No. 9s on the Sounders:<\/p>\n With Morris back soon, I\u2019d expect Ferreira to get most of the rest of his minutes this year either as a second forward or as a playmaker. And I\u2019d expect CSO Craig Waibel to look for a third No. 9 to add to the depth chart behind Morris (and maybe ahead of Musovski, whose finishing struggles \u2013 last weekend excepted \u2013 have driven more than a few Sounders fans over the edge).<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Stat:<\/strong> 7.25<\/p>\n RSL<\/a> have spent a lot more time chasing the game this season, and as a result, have spent a lot more time playing emergency defense. As a result, they\u2019re making 7.25 tackles per 90 in the defensive third, which is 16th in the league. Sounds not bad, right?<\/p>\n Well, last year they made 5.82 tackles in the defensive third, which was dead last. Big change.<\/p>\n At the same time, their tackles in the middle third have dropped from 7.00 per 90, which was third in the league, to 5.63, which is 19th.<\/p>\n They pretty clearly haven\u2019t quite figured out their structure yet and are spending a lot of time behind the play. Literally. And that\u2019s forced the backline into a lot of desperate moments, which feels like a significant regression from last year\u2019s club-record 59-point season.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Stat:<\/strong> 12.88<\/p>\n That\u2019s the number of take-ons \u2013 1v1s \u2013 St. Louis<\/a> are generating per game, which is tied for 28th in the league. And is a really, really low number for a team that plays a 3-4-2-1 (or a 3-4-1-2), which ostensibly means they\u2019re supposed to have two wide attackers in those wingback spots. A huge point of the 3-4-2-1 is to get the ball to those guys in stride against a rotating, back-pedaling defense, because it\u2019s easier to beat a rotating, back-pedaling defender in order to create chances.<\/p>\n Most other 3-4-2-1 teams are at or near the top of the league in take-ons per game, and are successful over 40% of the time in those 1v1s.<\/p>\n CITY are not only near 28th in total number of 1v1s generated; they\u2019re 27th in success rate at just 36.9%.<\/p>\n I am simply begging Olof Mellberg to stop playing center backs out there.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Stat:<\/strong> +0.02<\/p>\n I put a lot of stock into ASA\u2019s \u201creceiving \u2013 goals added\u201d metric, which is just a measure of \u201care you getting into good spots to receive dangerous passes?\u201d And here\u2019s a little light of hope for Dynamo fans, who have mostly been disappointed by DP No. 9 Ezequiel Ponce<\/a> so far this year: that +0.02 receiving g+ per 90 is actually ok.<\/p>\n It\u2019s not great, mind you. Brian White<\/a>\u2019s at +0.24, as is Christian Benteke<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n But Ponce\u2019s not alone on +0.02. Guys like Christian Ram\u00edrez<\/a>, Alonso Mart\u00ednez<\/a>, Luis Muriel<\/a> and Petar Musa<\/a> \u2013 professional goal-scorers, all \u2013 are in the same neighborhood.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Everything else about Ponce\u2019s game (shooting, dribbling, fouling, etc.) is under water as per ASA, which isn\u2019t great. But as long as he keeps getting on the ball in good spots, he should eventually figure out how to be a pretty decent MLS No. 9, all of which should get easier as attacking reinforcements arrive in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Stat:<\/strong> 97th percentile<\/p>\n It hasn\u2019t been an easy transition to MLS for Manu Garc\u00eda<\/a>, Sporting<\/a>\u2019s big offseason acquisition. The Spanish No. 10 struggled to get on the ball in good spots and to, for lack of a better term, just make stuff happen (for the most part, anyway), despite his obvious skill on the ball.<\/p>\n Things started to shift in the final game of the Peter Vermes era, and over the subsequent two outings under interim manager Kerry Zavagnin, Garc\u00eda\u2019s been getting on the ball in better spots and doing more with it for a KC attack that suddenly looks dangerous (the defense has looked dangerous in a different way).<\/p>\n Garc\u00eda\u2019s now in the 97th percentile of shot-creating actions, as per FBRef. That\u2019s involvement in \u201cthe two offensive actions directly leading to a shot, such as passes, take-ons, and drawing fouls.\u201d<\/p>\n Garcia\u2019s not really a through-ball artist \u2013 at least, he hasn\u2019t shown to be yet \u2013 but he\u2019s very comfortable receiving the ball in tight quarters, and then clever once he does so. That\u2019s led to better passing sequences in the attacking third over the past few weeks, and more drawn fouls.<\/p>\n This stat\u2019s kind of a blunt instrument, but I like it a lot as a measure of \u201care you out there making good things happen for your team in tough spots?\u201d I think we\u2019re really starting to see that from Garcia, and Sporting\u2019s a much more fun team to watch because of it.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Stat:<\/strong> 48.1%<\/p>\n Last year\u2019s Galaxy<\/a> were a not-very-good 18th in the league in aerial duels in their own defensive third, winning just 53%. This year, they\u2019ve dropped to a near-catastrophic 26th at that 48.1 winning percentage above. And it gets worse in the box itself, as they\u2019re winning just 46.7% of their aerial duels in their own 18.<\/p>\n This is all downstream of the Riqui Puig<\/a> injury. Last year\u2019s attack was championship-caliber, but the defense wasn’t until Emiro Garc\u00e9s<\/a> got into the XI. That changed everything because it allowed the Galaxy to play higher and take more risks with the ball \u2013 playing directly into Riqui\u2019s strengths \u2013 since Garc\u00e9s is a one-man transition eraser.<\/p>\n That’s a less valuable defensive skillset this year with the Galaxy playing deeper and allowing more box entries, and it\u2019s compounded by the fact that Garc\u00e9s has struggled mightily at recognizing incipient aerial duels. He contests just 1.52 per 90, which is basically a fullback\u2019s number (he\u2019s just behind Juli\u00e1n Aude<\/a>\u2019s 1.68 per 90 and just ahead of John Nelson<\/a>\u2019s 1.38).<\/p>\n Remember, this passivity almost cost the Galaxy the lead in last year\u2019s MLS Cup:<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n
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