Soccer <\/p>\n
We\u2019ve all watched a lot of soccer over the past six weeks. We\u2019ve all seen some stuff \u2013 back-passes in Matchday 1, counterattacks on Matchday 2, some outrageous performances in goal on Matchday 6, etc.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
Let\u2019s drop a few markers and try to make sense of it here.<\/p>\n
In we go:<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
I was on the Nos Audietis podcast<\/a> with Jeremiah Oshan on Monday evening, discussing the state of the Western Conference. He made the point that if you look at the current league possession rankings, you don\u2019t find a critical mass of teams in Audi MLS Cup Playoffs spots until you get towards the bottom. The bottom eight teams are actually all above the red line through six matchdays.<\/p>\n It feels shocking, given that three of the four teams that won major titles last year (LA Galaxy<\/a> – MLS Cup; Inter Miami<\/a> – Supporters\u2019 Shield; Columbus Crew<\/a> – Leagues Cup) were possession-heavy sides, and three of the four sides that won titles in 2023 (Crew – MLS Cup; Miami – Leagues Cup; Houston Dynamo<\/a> – US Open Cup) were ball-dominant.<\/p>\n In fact, last year saw a strong correlation between possession and points per game after that relationship had been totally decoupled in the first part of this decade.<\/p>\n 2022 season: Possession vs. PPG<\/strong><\/p>\n Here\u2019s the full-season scatter chart from 2022 (all data via FBRef):<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Literally zero correlation.<\/p>\n 2024 season: Possession vs. PPG<\/strong><\/p>\n Here\u2019s what 2024 looked like:<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n An rSp of .286 is the same level of correlation we saw at the end of last decade, and in line with what we tend to see in top European leagues.<\/p>\n 2025 (so far): Possession vs. PPG<\/strong><\/p>\n Now here\u2019s the first six weeks of the 2025 season:<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Literally a negative correlation! The Galaxy and Dynamo falling off a cliff hasn\u2019t helped, while Minnesota<\/a> and Austin<\/a> have been happily giving up the ball and crushing teams on the break and set pieces.<\/p>\n Did the MLS meta change over the course of one winter? Is this now a pure counterattacking league where you\u2019d be a fool to want the ball?<\/p>\n Nah. Here\u2019s what the chart looked like on April 1 of last year:<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n You recognize that inverse correlation, right?<\/p>\n What I\u2019m saying is this happens every single season. It\u2019s just really, really hard to have a lot of the ball and create with it \u2013 and to not screw up and gift chances to your opponent \u2013 while you\u2019re knocking the rust off and building chemistry over the first two months of the season. Teams tend to start humming by mid-April or so, and I\u2019d expect the possession\/ppg correlation to return to something close to what it was last year.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n I actually picked the Whitecaps<\/a> to narrowly miss the playoffs this year, expecting them to take a step backwards after losing a DP and replacing their coach. Their big signings were two guys (Jayden Nelson<\/a> and Emmanuel Sabbi<\/a>) who hadn\u2019t done much in their previous MLS minutes, and while I liked their core, they just seemed too thin. One injury and it all comes crashing down, right?<\/p>\n Well, Nelson\u2019s been awesome. That core has grown to include not just him, but Sebastian Berhalter<\/a> (who\u2019s among the league leaders in expected assists and sends in one of the best corner kicks in the league), Pedro Vite<\/a> (really superb progressive passing numbers this year), Math\u00edas Laborda<\/a> and \u2013 I think \u2013 J.C. Ngando<\/a>.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Ali Ahmed<\/a> seems to be taking the step forward in 2025 that we were all hoping for from him in 2024, while kids like Tate Johnson<\/a>, Liam MacKenzie<\/a> and Jeevan Badwal<\/a> are getting looks.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n They\u2019ve also endured the one injury they most feared, as their No. 10, Ryan Gauld<\/a>, has missed the past few weeks. They haven\u2019t been as good without him \u2013 you wouldn\u2019t expect them to be \u2013 but they haven\u2019t cratered, either.<\/p>\n All of this has happened within the context of new head coach Jesper S\u00f8rensen completely overhauling the game model. They play more like Wilfried Nancy\u2019s Crew, or the 2023 & 2024 Dynamo, than they do like the previous iteration of Vanni Sartini’s Whitecaps. They\u2019re using the ball relentlessly through central midfield in order to open up chances in the final third, and it just\u2026 keeps\u2026 working.<\/p>\n I love it. They\u2019re one of my favorite teams to watch.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n When I was down in San Diego<\/a> back in December for the Expansion Draft, I chatted with sporting director Tyler Heaps and head coach Mikey Varas. And both guys swore up and down that they\u2019d be a ball-dominant team, that possession \u2013 not just for the sake of possession, but to control games, constrict the opponents and create chances \u2013 was in their DNA.<\/p>\n I smiled and nodded, but internally rolled my eyes a bit. Virtually every expansion side says something to that effect, but most get pragmatic (i.e., dropping numbers behind the ball and defending space in banks of four) REAL QUICK when the results don\u2019t come.<\/p>\n The results have come. And not just the results, but the process has been really effective. They\u2019ve gotten on the ball, constricted opponents and created chances just as Heaps and Varas said they would four months ago. And while they\u2019re not bullet-proof (if you can play through their compactness and quickly switch the field of play, you\u2019re on), they\u2019re just really, really good.<\/p>\n There are no bright, red flags saying this is unsustainable, a la St. Louis CITY<\/a> two years ago. The Chrome and Azul \u2013 I\u2019m trying to make los Ni\u00f1os happen, please help me \u2013 are for real.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n I handed in my vote for Player of the Month earlier this week, and had Zack Steffen<\/a> first on my ballot. Every time he\u2019s been in the lineup, Colorado<\/a> have gotten a result. The one time he wasn\u2019t in the lineup, they didn\u2019t.<\/p>\n And mostly \u2013 until this past weekend, anyway \u2013 when they\u2019ve gotten results, it\u2019s been because of him.<\/p>\n So what\u2019s changed? He\u2019s just being a goalkeeper again. Colorado (with an assist from Mauricio Pochettino\u2019s USMNT<\/a> staff) have simplified the game for Steffen, and he\u2019s thriving.<\/p>\n He looks certain of himself for the first time, honestly, since last decade when he was with the Columbus Crew.<\/p>\n There are other things to unpack here \u2013 his shot prep seems much better to me (I\u2019m not seeing the happy feet that often led to poor push-offs and limited his effective shot-stopping range), and his angles seem better. It\u2019s like, because he has less of the field to really think about, he\u2019s able to focus and elevate his game where it really matters.<\/p>\n He has been the best goalkeeper in the league by a mile.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Second on my Player of the Month ballot was Chicago<\/a>‘s Hugo Cuypers<\/a>, who is tied for second in the Golden Boot presented by Audi race on five goals with Atlanta<\/a>‘s Emmanuel Latte Lath<\/a>. A couple of goals behind them is K\u00e9vin Denkey<\/a> (he\u2019s played about 100 fewer minutes as well), who\u2019s been both an excellent goalscorer and an excellent all-around presence in the attacking third for a Cincy<\/a> team still trying to find their feet.<\/p>\n I will always be skeptical of spending big \u2013 and these guys were all eight-figure buys; Denkey was the league-record signing for a couple of months this winter until Atlanta bought Latte Lath, who\u2019s now the new record-holder \u2013 on a center forward. Cuypers\u2019 struggles last year showed that it\u2019s the context of the midfield and attack around them that really matters, and in my mind, if you\u2019ve got that context right you should be able to find a guy for relatively cheap like Philadelphia<\/a>‘s Tai Baribo<\/a> (the current Golden Boot leader) or Minnesota<\/a>‘s Kelvin Yeboah<\/a>. Or, if you\u2019re really lucky, you strike gold via your academy with a Jordan Morris<\/a>-type, or via the SuperDraft a la Brian White<\/a>, Tani Oluwaseyi<\/a>, Pat Agyemang<\/a> or Duncan McGuire<\/a> (who\u2019s just getting healthy now).<\/p>\n The early successes of Cuypers, Denkey and Latte Lath aren\u2019t going to change my mind on that. But it\u2019s nice to see they\u2019re not heading towards bust territory, either. It really felt like Cuypers was in danger of crossing that threshold with a slow start.<\/p>\n Instead, he\u2019s making good on Chicago\u2019s investment, and has A-Tier synergy with new wingers Jonathan Bamba<\/a> and Philip Zinckernagel<\/a>. Denkey and Latte Lath, meanwhile, look like two of the most exciting players in the league. The spending, so far, has been justified.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n
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