Network economist Timothy Peterson warns that if the US Federal Reserve holds off on rate cuts in 2025, it may cause a broader market downturn, potentially dragging Bitcoin back toward $70,000.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat it needs is a trigger. I think that trigger may be as simple as the Fed not cutting rates at all this year,\u201d Peterson said<\/a> in a March 8 X post. Peterson\u2019s comment comes just a day after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell reiterated that he\u2019s in no hurry to adjust interest rates.<\/p>\n \u201cWe do not need to be in a hurry and are well-positioned to wait for greater clarity,\u201d Powell said<\/a> in a speech in New York on March 7.<\/p>\n Source: <\/em>Timothy Peterson<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n Peterson, who is the author of the paper \u201cMetcalfe\u2019s Law as a Model for Bitcoin\u2019s Value,\u201d estimated how low the Nasdaq could fall to predict Bitcoin\u2019s (BTC<\/a>) potential bottom in \u201cthe next bear market.\u201d<\/p>\n Using Peterson\u2019s Nasdaq lowest price forward model, he estimated that once the bear market begins, the Nasdaq would decline 17% over roughly seven months before finding a bottom.<\/p>\n Applying a \u201c1.9\u201d times multiplier to that amount for Bitcoin\u2019s decline, he estimated a 33% decline in Bitcoin, bringing it down to $57,000 from its current price at publication, $86,199, according<\/a> to CoinMarketCap data.<\/p>\n Source: <\/em>Timothy Peterson<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n However, he said Bitcoin likely won\u2019t drop that far, expecting a floor price closer to the low $70,000 range based on historical trends from 2022.<\/p>\n \u201cTraders and opportunists hover over Bitcoin like vultures,\u201d he said, explaining that once the market expects Bitcoin to hit $57,000, \u201cit won\u2019t get there because there are always some investors who step in because the price is \u2018low enough.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cI remember in 2022 when everyone said the bottom would be $12k. It only went to $16k, 25% higher than expected,\u201d he said before pointing out that the 25% increase from $57,000 is $71,000.\u00a0<\/p>\n The last time Bitcoin traded near the $71,000 price level was on Nov. 6, after Donald Trump won the US election<\/a>, before rallying for a month and reaching $100,000 by Dec. 5<\/a>.<\/p>\n Related: <\/strong><\/em>Bitcoin investors share mixed reactions to White House Crypto Summit<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n In January 2025, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes echoed a similar price prediction.<\/p>\n \u201cI am calling for a $70k to $75k correction in BTC, a mini financial crisis, and a resumption of money printing that will send us to $250k by the end of the year,\u201d Hayes said<\/a> in a Jan. 27 X post.<\/p>\n In December 2024, crypto mining firm Blockware Solutions<\/a> said Bitcoin\u2019s \u201cbear case\u201d for 2025 would be $150,000, assuming the Federal Reserve reverses course on interest rate cuts.<\/p>\n Magazine: <\/strong><\/em>Meet lawyer Max Burwick \u2014 \u2018The ambulance chaser of crypto\u2019<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\nBitcoins Fed rate cut delay may spark bear market<\/h2>\n
Bitcoins Bitcoin’s 2022 low didn\u2019t drop as expected<\/h2>\n