Soccer <\/p>\n
Our season preview content rolls on! This week I\u2019m going team by team and trying to pick out the guy who\u2019s poised to take on a bigger role, up his production and become more than just an under-the-radar fan favorite or a kid with potential. That\u2019s right, folks, it\u2019s time to talk breakout players.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
What qualifies as a \u201cbreakout player,\u201d you ask? Well, 1) you know when you see it and 2) this interview is over! No more questions!<\/p>\n
West today, East tomorrow. In we go:<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
Five years ago Nelson<\/a> was considered a can\u2019t-miss talent pushing his way through Toronto FC<\/a>\u2019s academy and into the first team. Along the way, though, he got derailed for various reasons. One of the big ones is TFC\u2019s relative dysfunction this decade, but an even bigger reason is Nelson is something of a \u2018tweener: he\u2019s never going to be the dynamic 1v1 winger some thought, he\u2019s never going to have the playmaker\u2019s vision others thought, and he\u2019s not a dynamic goalscorer.<\/p>\n My hunch is his best role \u2013 and we saw him doing this for a hot minute under Bob Bradley \u2013 is as something of a Latif Blessing<\/a>-style pressing No. 10. His field coverage has always been a strength, and while he’s not a natural playmaker, he\u2019s a functional passer who can win the ball, play quickly forward to, say, Ryan Gauld<\/a> (or backward to Pedro Vite<\/a>), and then find space off-ball to occupy defenders and create attacking options.<\/p>\n After a year overseas, he\u2019s back in MLS with a Vancouver side that really need him to be something. My best bet is he\u2019ll be that.<\/p>\n Confidence level:<\/strong> Low. We\u2019re talking a very specific set of circumstances for him to thrive.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n We\u2019re probably a year or two too early on Joyner<\/a>, who\u2019s just 18. But he was awesome last year in MLS NEXT Pro with 16g\/4a in 1,850 minutes, and his off-ball movement is dangerous in a way that has become essential for teams that are converting to a back three with flying wingbacks (which St. Louis<\/a> are under new head coach Olof Mellberg).<\/p>\n He will almost certainly be behind Conrad Wallem<\/a> on the left, and hasn\u2019t played much on the right throughout his very young career. But he\u2019s going to get on the field for at least a little bit and get into dangerous spots, and players who can do that add value. Players who add value then get more playing time.<\/p>\n Confidence level:<\/strong> Low. I think the likeliest outcome is that only St. Louis fans and absolute sickos (like me and the poor guys editing this) will know much about Joyner 12 months from now, but I\u2019m already looking forward to his real<\/em> breakout year in 2026.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Ok, so Atencio<\/a> has already broken out as a useful MLS defensive midfielder. He\u2019s played real minutes in big games against the biggest teams in the region, has gotten a USMNT<\/a> cap, and has gotten himself paid. And he\u2019s 23 \u2013 not a kid anymore.<\/p>\n But we haven\u2019t seen much of Atencio at what I think will ultimately be his best position: center back, specifically in a back three. He\u2019s got the physicality for it, and on the ball he\u2019s got the passing range (with either foot!) to be an asset for a team that wants to have the ball about 60 percent of the time.<\/p>\n We\u2019ll still see some of Atencio in central midfield this year (sometimes alongside one of last year\u2019s breakout Sounders<\/a>, Obed Vargas<\/a>), but my guess is by the end of the season, we\u2019ll be talking a lot more about him as a center back.<\/p>\n Confidence level:<\/strong> Pretty high, given what we\u2019ve seen thus far in preseason and how committed the Sounders are to developing their academy talent.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Benji Kikanovic<\/a>\u2019s unfortunate injury<\/a> should open up a ton of playing time for Verhoeven<\/a>, an 18-year-old academy product who finally broke into the first team for a half-dozen games at the end of last season.<\/p>\n Verhoeven is not flashy. But both in NEXT Pro and with the various USYNTs he\u2019s played for, as well as in that six-game MLS cameo last season, he\u2019s played hard and been mistake-free. That\u2019s generally what Bruce Arena has asked of his fullbacks over the years, and it\u2019s a role that would fit the kid well.<\/p>\n Confidence level:<\/strong> Medium. Verhoeven has the tactical tools, but he might not be there yet physically. Still, the door is open now. I hope he walks through it.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n I really liked Alvarado, a product of the LA Galaxy<\/a> academy, back in the first part of this decade with the US U-20s. He looked, to me, like a rugged and pretty skilled two-way central midfielder who wasn\u2019t afraid of doing the dirty work, but still had the engine to get forward and support the attack.<\/p>\n Alvarado then spent the past three years bouncing around Portugal in teams that seemed determined to use him anywhere but<\/em> central midfield.<\/p>\n Now 21, the kid\u2019s looking for a fresh start with a team that\u2019s told any and everyone that player development \u2013 specifically, developing players from Southern California \u2013 is a core tenet of who they are. And I love a good second chance story! Maybe, just as new teammate Luca de la Torre<\/a> had to leave his club (Fulham) to find playing time elsewhere (Heracles Almelo) in his early 20s, Alvarado\u2019s on that same path.<\/p>\n Confidence level:<\/strong> Low. \u201cDeep reserve\u201d seems likelier than any sort of significant role.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Henry<\/a> is on a similar path to Alvarado, as he declined to sign with a domestic side to try and break through in Europe as a teenager.<\/p>\n That didn\u2019t work out and now, just a couple months from turning 21, he\u2019s found himself in Utah on loan for at least the year. And the whispers I\u2019ve heard indicate that he\u2019s impressed in preseason, and could be in line for a starting job along that RSL<\/a> back line.<\/p>\n Will it be in a back three or a back four? That\u2019s a big question right now, but what isn\u2019t is whether Henry\u2019s in line for serious minutes. Spoiler alert: he is.<\/p>\n Confidence level:<\/strong> High. Pablo Mastroeni\u2019s done excellent work developing players other teams have cast off, and nobody\u2019s ever doubted Henry\u2019s natural talent. Should be a great fit.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n The folks in Portland<\/a> love Surman<\/a>, a full New Zealand international who\u2019ll be on the field in next summer\u2019s World Cup. He arrived in the middle of last year and was slowly integrated into the team. He didn\u2019t make an appearance until Decision Day, when he started and went 90 minutes in the Timbers\u2019 1-1 draw<\/a> vs. the Sounders.<\/p>\n Then he grabbed some bench in the Wild Card game against Vancouver<\/a> and had a front-row seat for his side\u2019s 5-0 humiliation<\/a>. Beware of correlation vs. causation and all of that, but, y\u2019know. 5-0.<\/p>\n I\u2019m not sure he\u2019s in line to start from first kick this year, but it\u2019s hard to imagine bringing back the exact same group that shipped 56 regular-season goals last year, and then lost that nickel at home in the playoffs. Changes will eventually be made.<\/p>\n Confidence level:<\/strong> High.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Diaz<\/a> had a couple of bad moments to start his tenure with the Loons when he arrived mid-season, and a couple of bad moments at the end of his debut year as the Galaxy absolutely stuffed them into a grave in the Western Conference Semifinals.<\/p>\n In between, though, we saw a rangy center back who wasn\u2019t afraid to pick a pass and was positively eager to get on the ball and break opposing pressure by dribbling past the front line.<\/p>\n With other breakout candidates thus far I\u2019ve mostly written about young players claiming bigger roles and maaaaaybe<\/em> becoming starters. Diaz is already a starter; what I\u2019m talking about here, as he hits his prime, is him becoming the type of press-breaking center back Joe Lowery<\/a> writes poetry about in Backheeled<\/a>.<\/p>\n Confidence level:<\/strong> Medium. He\u2019s a nailed-on starter and I think he\u2019ll be very good, but I\u2019m not quite sure he\u2019ll reach Steven Moreira<\/a> or Robin Jansson<\/a>-level.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n I\u2019ve written this elsewhere a million times this offseason: before Garc\u00e9s<\/a> got into the lineup with four games left in the regular season, the Galaxy were in the bottom third of the league in npxG conceded per 90, and their actual goals conceded just about matched that.<\/p>\n Once he made it into the XI, the Galaxy\u2019s numbers (actual and underlying) dropped by about half a goal per game, which was a top-five mark. Garc\u00e9s \u2013 with his ability to put out fires in behind \u2013 was the biggest reason why. In was on particularly stark display in the Western Conference Final, during which he repeatedly snuffed out Jordan Morris<\/a> in the open field. Not a lot of CBs in the league could do that.<\/p>\n Garc\u00e9s has a chance to be in the Best XI discussion. Quite a come-up for a kid who took months to get onto the field in the first place.<\/p>\n Confidence level:<\/strong> Medium. The Galaxy will still be really good, but I think the game model, with Riqui Puig<\/a> injured, will have changed to the point that Garc\u00e9s\u2019 strengths aren\u2019t highlighted nearly so much, and his primary weakness (he\u2019s not great at reading crosses) could stick out a bit.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Mateusz Bogusz<\/a> got sold, Kike Olivera<\/a> is perhaps next out the door, and Antoine Griezmann isn’t coming until summer? Seems like the young Venezuelan \u2013 who had 5g\/3a in just 626 minutes across all competitions last year \u2013 is in line to get a lot of run.<\/p>\n If Mart\u00ednez<\/a> does, I don\u2019t think it\u2019s wild to predict he\u2019ll finish the year atop the 22 Under 22 rankings and on the shopping lists of some of the bigger clubs in top-five leagues. An outgoing fee in the realm of what RSL got for Andr\u00e9s G\u00f3mez<\/a> last year seems very, very manageable.<\/p>\n Confidence level:<\/strong> Extremely high, even if they keep Olivera (who\u2019s also excellent).<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n I\u2019d be like 80% higher on Sporting<\/a> entering this season if they had the technology to clone Jake Davis<\/a> and start one of the clones at right back, with the other lining up in central midfield as the second coming of box-to-box legend Roger Espinoza<\/a>.<\/p>\n I really like him at right back, and based upon Sporting\u2019s current depth chart and rumored upcoming signings, I think there\u2019s a better chance that\u2019s his job at the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n But he is, from where I sit, irreplaceable in central midfield in almost the exact same way Espinoza was for more than a decade. I loved watching him there once he was moved into that spot mid-season.<\/p>\n He\u2019s got USMNT potential in either position.<\/p>\n Confidence level:<\/strong> Very high, as just like Roger he\u2019s the type of player home fans will love while everyone else hates.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n If it\u2019s not McGlynn<\/a> the Dynamo<\/a> are in some trouble! They brought him in explicitly to be the replacement for H\u00e9ctor Herrera, who spent the past two years being among the league leaders in touches per 90, passes per 90, progressive passes and everything else you could want out of a midfield orchestrator.<\/p>\n McGlynn\u2019s got a ton of that to his game. Even while playing in a system that was mostly allergic to possession with Philly<\/a>, he posted a lot of green:<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Eighty-ninth percentile in pass attempts per 90, 98th percentile in progressive passes, 86th percentile in progressive carries? That\u2019s exactly what the Dynamo paid for, and exactly what they need.<\/p>\n The question is whether he can do the defensive work required of the spot. It\u2019s partially a question of athleticism \u2013 McGlynn doesn\u2019t have much \u2013 but at times it\u2019s also been a question of will. Which is to say he\u2019s got to show more.<\/p>\n Confidence level:<\/strong> Medium. Might need a full year to understand his two-way responsibility before it really clicks.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n It\u2019s been an offseason of misery for Dallas<\/a> fans, but the one unambiguous good thing that happened is the front office pushed through a permanent deal for Delgado<\/a>. The 21-year-old Ecuadorian was largely excellent last year, with elite field coverage and tenacity combined with a good touch on the ball in traffic and killer timing on his box arrivals as a No. 8.<\/p>\n He\u2019s not really a playmaker, and you wouldn\u2019t mistake him for a McGlynn-style orchestrator. But he\u2019s a guy who adds value in every phase of play, both with and without the ball.<\/p>\n He\u2019ll get his first full Ecuador cap this year, and it wouldn\u2019t shock me if he\u2019s the next big Dallas sale 12 months from now.<\/p>\n Confidence level:<\/strong> Very high. Everything else around him might be in flux, but Delgado\u2019s a winner.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Honestly, it doesn\u2019t feel like anybody on this Rapids<\/a> roster is on the verge of breaking out. We know who all their guys are, how they play, and what to expect (for the most part). Do they need one of the wingers \u2013 who won\u2019t be playing much as wingers this year, but as half-space merchants in a new 3-4-2-1 \u2013 to hit a new gear? Yes. But right now, it looks like K\u00e9vin Cabral<\/a> has got the inside track on the starting job next to Djordje Mihailovic<\/a>, and I can not, in good conscience, pick K\u00e9vin Cabral as a breakout player in the year of our lord 2025.<\/p>\n Is it stupid to pick a homegrown player directly out of college as a breakout candidate? Yes, for two reasons:<\/p>\n I don\u2019t care, though. I\u2019ve seen enough film to be fairly high on the kid, who was pretty close to a true No. 10 for the University of Denver, and whose older brother Cole<\/a> is arguably the best player on the team.<\/p>\n Confidence level:<\/strong> Pretty low. I think Sam will play minutes, though I\u2019m not sure at which spot and I’m definitely not willing to wager on how many.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Pereira<\/a>\u2019s a former No. 1 overall SuperDraft pick and has been a starter for four years, with more than 120 appearances for Austin<\/a>. He\u2019s also cracked Venezuela\u2019s roster and a few months ago made his debut in Conmebol World Cup qualifying. So he\u2019s probably got the highest profile of anybody on this list, to the point that it\u2019s borderline irresponsible to put him here.<\/p>\n But I\u2019m going with it anyway because I think he\u2019ll have a new role as a sort of free 8 in Nico Est\u00e9vez\u2019s system, and his primary function fits his skillset.<\/p>\n I forget who originally posted this \u201cJobs of the Modern Midfielder\u201d graphic, but here ya go:<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Players like Pereira often get overlooked because they don\u2019t do a ton of Job A or Job B. It\u2019s all the \u201cball magically moves to the other side of the pitch\u201d stuff he\u2019s best at.<\/p>\n In this team, that just spent $30 million on attackers who are just<\/em> attackers, that job has become indescribably important.<\/p>\n\n