{"id":818302,"date":"2025-01-08T22:11:55","date_gmt":"2025-01-09T04:11:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/08\/flutter-issues-us-profit-warning-amid-very-unfavourable-sports-results\/"},"modified":"2025-01-08T22:11:55","modified_gmt":"2025-01-09T04:11:55","slug":"flutter-issues-us-profit-warning-amid-very-unfavourable-sports-results","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/08\/flutter-issues-us-profit-warning-amid-very-unfavourable-sports-results\/","title":{"rendered":"Flutter issues US profit warning amid \u201cvery unfavourable\u201d sports results"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Entertainment <\/p>\n<p><strong>Flutter Entertainment has warned it is likely to fall approximately $370 million (\u00a3297 million\/\u20ac359 million) short of US revenue expectations for FanDuel following a period of \u201cvery unfavourable\u201d sports results in the country during November and December.<\/strong><\/p>\n<div id=\"post-348627\">\n<p>In a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.londonstockexchange.com\/news-article\/FLTR\/update-on-short-term-us-sports-results-impact\/16841996\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">trading update<\/a> published today (8 January), Flutter said strong player-friendly results have offset US player momentum. The group <a href=\"https:\/\/igamingbusiness.com\/finance\/flutter-third-quarter-earnings\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">published Q3 results in mid-November<\/a>, with these showing \u201cexcellent\u201d growth across all regions.<\/p>\n<p>However since the results announcement on 12 November, running into December, FanDuel has endured \u201cunfavourable US sports results\u201d primarily affecting NFL parlay and same-game parlay outcomes.<\/p>\n<p>The operator went as far as calling the 2024-25 NFL season \u201cthe most customer friendly since the launch of online sports betting with the highest rate of favourites winning in nearly 20 years\u201d.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"h-flutter-takes-438m-ggr-hit-from-customer-friendly-results\">Flutter takes $438m GGR hit from customer-friendly results<\/h2>\n<p>These results, Flutter said, generated an estimated adverse gross gaming revenue of $438 million. <\/p>\n<p>Revenue took a $390 million hit and adjusted EBITDA $260 million. This covers the period between 12 November \u2013 when the Q3 results were published \u2013 and 31 December.<\/p>\n<p>As such, FanDuel revenue for FY24 is now likely to be $370 million less than the previous guidance midpoint at $2.78 billion the operator said. Flutter initially said revenue would be between $6.05 billion and $6.25 billion in the US.<\/p>\n<p>US adjusted EBITDA will be $205 million lower than the initial midpoint of $505 million. Flutter previously forecasted adjusted EBITDA to range between $670 million and $750 million. This comes before any mitigating steps, such as reducing sales and marketing costs, the operator noted. <\/p>\n<p>It means FanDuel revenue for Q4 is now expected to reach $1.59 billion, with adjusted EBITDA coming to $161 million. This factors in a $643 million GGR hit from the adverse sports results in the quarter, which in turn reduced revenue by $550 million and slashed adjusted EBITDA by $360 million.<\/p>\n<p>However, Flutter added it remains confident in the growth drivers and long-term growth trajectory as outlined at its <a href=\"https:\/\/igamingbusiness.com\/strategy\/flutter-investor-day-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">investor day in September<\/a>. <\/p>\n<h2 id=\"h-ukie-performance-will-offset-us-struggles\">UKIE performance will offset US struggles<\/h2>\n<p>While the NFL results have hindered FanDuel, the operator stressed that operations in other markets remained strong. The UK and Ireland in particular performed well thanks to favourable results in the English Premier League. As a result its revenue midpoint for the 2024 financial year is likely to be 1% higher than the previous year, with adjusted EBITDA 2% higher.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"h-black-swans-not-as-rare-as-people-think\">Black swans \u201cnot as rare as people think\u201d<\/h2>\n<p>Days before Flutter published its Q3 results, competitor DraftKings <a href=\"https:\/\/igamingbusiness.com\/finance\/quarterly-results\/draftkings-q3-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">announced a revenue and earnings downgrade<\/a> on the back of adverse results early in Q4. Barry Jonas of Truist called those results \u00a0\u201cthe worst in company history\u201d for DraftKings. It faced a revenue headwind of around $250 million and a $175 million impact on EBITDA.<\/p>\n<p>Reflecting on Flutter\u2019s statement analysts at Regulus Partners believe it was \u201cinevitable\u201d FanDuel would encounter bad luck after years of explosive growth. It expects other US operators to issue similar profit warnings.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAfter nearly four years of structural margin improvements, a brief run of bad luck was almost inevitable and Flutter is largely right to confirm underlying guidance, in our view,\u201d Regulus said. \u201cHowever, the problem with black swans, both in ornithology and in risk metaphor, is that they are not as rare as people think. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cFanDuel\u2019s leading same game parlay mix probably exposes them more to this run of bad results for bookmakers. But we doubt FanDuel will be the only US betting revenue disappointment or profit warning.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"h-the-problem-with-parlays\">The problem with parlays<\/h2>\n<p>Parlays increase \u2013 rather than decrease \u2013 margin volatility, Regulus explained. Coupled with the US market\u2019s dependence on three seasonal local sports, the NFL, basketball and baseball, any punter-friendly results have an oversized impact. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe NFL is by far the worst example[\u2026], with [around] 15% of US wagering balanced upon fewer than 300 games played over just 18 weeks \u2013 with this level of risk concentration black swans are bound to appear in flocks.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Regulus estimates that around 70% of sports betting handle \u2013 excluding parlays \u2013 comes from these three core sports.<\/p>\n<p>Shares in Flutter Entertainment were down 1.28% at $251.86 per share in early trading in New York today (8 January).<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/igamingbusiness.com\/finance\/flutter-us-profit-warning-unfavourable-sports-results\/\" class=\"button purchase\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Read More<\/a><br \/>\n Robert Fletcher<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Flutter Entertainment has warned it is likely to fall approximately $370 million (\u00a3297 million\/\u20ac359 million) short of US revenue expectations for FanDuel following a period of \u201cvery unfavourable\u201d sports results in the country during November and December. In a trading update published today (8 January), Flutter said strong player-friendly results have offset US player momentum.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":818303,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1798,83407,2178],"tags":[83404,5410],"class_list":{"0":"post-818302","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-entertainment","8":"category-flutter","9":"category-issues","10":"tag-flutter","11":"tag-issues"},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/818302","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=818302"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/818302\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/818303"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=818302"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=818302"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=818302"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}