Soccer <\/p>\n
You felt filthy clicking this link. Just admit it. You did.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
Well, my friend, I have good news: I felt filthy writing this, too. So we can wallow together for the next few hundred words as we try to predict who will follow in LA Galaxy<\/a>‘s footsteps and hoist the next \u2013 the 30th!! \u2013 MLS Cup presented by Audi.<\/p>\n One note before we dive in: I have called four of the past six Supporters\u2019 Shield winners before the season started. Pretty good! I have called just one of the past six MLS Cup winners before the season started. Not great!<\/p>\n It\u2019s very, very hard to get these things right. Anyway, in we go:<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Why they\u2019ll win it<\/strong><\/p>\n My refrain all year long was LA were not good enough defensively to get it done. Oops.<\/p>\n The 2024 version of the Galaxy became substantially better in that department once Emiro Garc\u00e9s<\/a> entered the lineup at center back, a perfect complement to veteran Maya Yoshida<\/a>. Beyond that, Edwin Cerrillo<\/a> has now proved his bona fides beyond a shadow of a doubt. He\u2019s never going to be adventurous with the ball, but that\u2019s fine \u2013 in fact, it\u2019s a good thing for a team absolutely stocked with other ball-movers, some of them of the world-class variety.<\/p>\n Speaking of: I think it\u2019s fair to expect Riqui Puig<\/a>\u2019s return around Aug. 1 of next year, which should give him the runway he needs to get something close to full fitness once the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs roll around. Factor in everyone else expected to return, and you will not catch me downplaying LA\u2019s chances this time.<\/p>\n Why they won\u2019t<\/strong><\/p>\n Right now Gabriel Pec<\/a> and Dejan Jovelji\u0107<\/a> are only expected<\/em> to return; there could very easily be a godfather offer waiting for one or both.<\/p>\n Yoshida could get old. Riqui\u2019s return could throw off the overall balance. The Disease of More<\/a> could infect them.<\/p>\n The bottom line is it\u2019s really, really hard to repeat. Only three teams have ever done it in MLS history (only one wasn\u2019t coached by Bruce Arena), and none since the 2012 Galaxy have pulled it off. That\u2019s a long, long time ago.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Why they\u2019ll win it<\/strong><\/p>\n They finished second in the Supporters’ Shield table this year while juggling two other finals runs, which is not supposed to happen. They\u2019ve got an open DP slot (Darlington Nagbe<\/a> can be bought down with TAM) and at least two open U22 Initiative slots. They have maybe the league\u2019s best 1-2 punch in Cucho Hern\u00e1ndez<\/a> and Diego Rossi<\/a>. They can expect summer acquisitions like Dylan Chambost<\/a> and DeJuan Jones<\/a> \u2013 who I bet will be converted into a center back in Wilfried Nancy\u2019s system; can\u2019t you see him making those Steven Moreira<\/a>-style line-breaking runs with the ball? \u2013 to be more meaningful contributors.<\/p>\n And yeah, they have Nancy. I think he\u2019s the best coach in the league by a fair distance. That matters a lot.<\/p>\n Why they won\u2019t<\/strong><\/p>\n Nancy intimated that if he\u2019d known the Supporters\u2019 Shield was the path to the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup<\/a>, he\u2019d have had Columbus<\/a> go harder after that one rather than spreading themselves so thin (again: even spreading themselves thin, they finished second! This team was incredible!). And you just know they’ll be all-in on the Concacaf Champions Cup<\/a>.<\/p>\n Pushing as hard as they did for continental glory saw them run out of gas in 2024. It wouldn\u2019t shock me if the same thing happened in 2025.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Why they\u2019ll win it<\/strong><\/p>\n They won the US Open Cup<\/a> this year. They made it to the Leagues Cup<\/a> final. The year before, they made it to the MLS Cup final and the CCC final, plus played in Campeones Cup<\/a>. They won MLS Cup the year before that.<\/p>\n Six finals in three years since Steve Cherundolo took over, with two wins! They\u2019re averaging a trophy a season. Say what you want about Olivier Giroud<\/a> (I\u2019ll say he was mostly pretty bad), but a front line of him flanked by Denis Bouanga<\/a> and Antoine Griezmann is going to do murder.<\/p>\n Ahh, yes, Antoine Griezmann. I would not be surprised if he\u2019s officially on this roster by the end of January. And I would be absolutely shocked if he\u2019s not<\/em> on this roster by the end of July.<\/p>\n Talent matters. The Black & Gold are likely to have as much as almost anyone.<\/p>\n Why they won\u2019t<\/strong><\/p>\n They\u2019ve played in six finals. The only one they won outright was this year\u2019s US Open Cup, which was at home against a frankly pretty bad Sporting Kansas City<\/a> side. Not a great track record.<\/p>\n And look, I don\u2019t like how eager they are to concede possession in the biggest games against the best teams. They couldn\u2019t get away with it against Club Le\u00f3n, they couldn\u2019t get away with it against the Crew, and they even finally stopped getting away with it against Seattle<\/a> last month.<\/p>\n The game model worries me. It\u2019s a limiting factor.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Why they\u2019ll win it<\/strong><\/p>\n I trust GM Chris Albright will have gotten it right this time with K\u00e9vin Denkey<\/a>, which takes care of the No. 9 issues. And I trust he \u2013 really the club as a whole \u2013 will figure out what\u2019s been eating at Lucho Acosta<\/a>, who looked like the second-best player in the league for the first two-thirds of the 2024 season.<\/p>\n Add in the expected healthy return of Matt Miazga<\/a> and the flexibility provided by Obinna Nwobodo<\/a> potentially moving off of a DP slot into a TAM-able deal, and there\u2019s a lot to like.<\/p>\n I\u2019m also going to get way out over my skis and point out Cruzeiro’s option to purchase \u00c1lvaro Barreal<\/a> has expired. Does he indeed return for 2025? If he\u2019s at left wingback, Lucho\u2019s the 10, Luca Orellano<\/a> is up top with Denkey, and they still have an open DP slot beyond that to use\u2026 my god that\u2019s a lot of firepower.<\/p>\n Why they won\u2019t<\/strong><\/p>\n Or they whiffed on Denkey like they did with Aaron Boupendza, Lucho\u2019s sulking, Barreal\u2019s not coming back, Miazga\u2019s not going to be healthy, and so on.<\/p>\n Any one of those things could derail a potential title run. But I can tell you right now that I\u2019ll be erring on the side of \u201cwildly optimistic\u201d about Cincy<\/a> in 2025.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Why they\u2019ll win it<\/strong><\/p>\n The vibes have to be better. That was the whole point of hiring Javier Mascherano<\/a> as the head coach \u2013 he\u2019s very much part of the Bar\u00e7a Besties Gang that’s more or less running the show down in Fort Lauderdale. If the vibes are good, and Leo Messi<\/a>, Luis Su\u00e1rez<\/a> et al are bought in, then I\u2019d expect everyone else to be bought in as well.<\/p>\n Then there\u2019s the central defense, which was bad in 2024. Well, guess what? They have a ton of cap room (they can clear tons of budget space over two seasons if they trade Julian Gressel<\/a>, which I\u2019d expect) to ensure it will be actually good in 2025.<\/p>\n The bottom line is Messi has won almost every trophy he\u2019s ever played for at least once, and based on what we saw last month, he badly wants to win MLS Cup. Ownership will spare no expense giving him and his teammates the resources to do so.<\/p>\n Why they won\u2019t<\/strong><\/p>\n It\u2019s probably worth noting there was a pretty vocal contingent of Argentines who were quite happy that Mascherano’s no longer coaching their country’s U-20 side. That could be fans being crazy-assed fans, or it could be a big, bright red flag.<\/p>\n And look, we\u2019ve all learned over the years that it\u2019s really, really hard to find championship-caliber MLS center backs. Want a good example of that? Tom\u00e1s Avil\u00e9s<\/a> is the most expensive incoming center back in MLS history, and man, did he ride the struggle bus all year.<\/p>\n The biggest reason, though, is Messi, Su\u00e1rez and Sergio Busquets<\/a> could all individually and collectively get old. I mean, there were some grim sequences of play this season:<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Suarez’s unbelievable late miss will be the highlight, but Miami’s other 3 Barca legends did not cover themselves in glory against Charlotte.<\/p>\n Yet another disappointing draw for the Herons. pic.twitter.com\/0tk9O65M2N<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n \u2014 Matthew Doyle (@MattDoyle76) September 29, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote><\/div>\n Still, unless Messi\u2019s leg comes off, I\u2019m going to be sticking with this pick for the next 12 months. It\u2019s up to the rest of the league to prove me wrong. Again.<\/p>\n Why they\u2019ll win it<\/strong><\/p>\n Houston<\/a>‘s game model allows them to control matches, often even against the best teams. I\u2019d expect Ezequiel Ponce<\/a> to have a Gass Theorem season in 2025, and I\u2019m hoping young wingers Nelson Qui\u00f1ones<\/a> and Lawrence Ennali<\/a> both return to full health and full awesomeness (I LOVED what I saw from Ennali before his ACL injury).<\/p>\n I also think they\u2019re going to upgrade that No. 10 spot. Will they slide Coco Carrasquilla<\/a> inside to replace the departed H\u00e9ctor Herrera<\/a> at the 8? Maybe, but wouldn\u2019t it be fun if they rang up Palmeiras and were able to land Eduard Atuesta<\/a> instead? Atuesta\u2019s made for that role, and his presence would keep Coco at right midfield, which would in turn maintain the overall structure that\u2019s been so good the past two seasons.<\/p>\n I\u2019m not betting on it \u2013 darkhorses are \u201cdarkhorses\u201d instead of \u201cfavorites\u201d for a reason. But they\u2019ve got the pieces in place to be a real problem in 2025, potentially all the way to the last game of the year.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n
Soccer A darkhorse worth mentioning\u2026<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/p><\/div>\n