{"id":598419,"date":"2023-01-17T10:47:00","date_gmt":"2023-01-17T16:47:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.sellorbuyhomefast.com\/index.php\/2023\/01\/17\/goldman-sachs-clients-slightly-more-optimistic-on-2023-recession-probability\/"},"modified":"2023-01-17T10:47:00","modified_gmt":"2023-01-17T16:47:00","slug":"goldman-sachs-clients-slightly-more-optimistic-on-2023-recession-probability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/2023\/01\/17\/goldman-sachs-clients-slightly-more-optimistic-on-2023-recession-probability\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman Sachs clients slightly more optimistic on 2023 recession probability"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\"Goldman
\n\u00a9 Reuters Goldman Sachs clients slightly more optimistic on 2023 recession probability<\/span>
\n<\/i>\n<\/p>\n

By Sam Boughedda<\/p>\n

Goldman Sachs said on Tuesday that 57% of its clients expect a recession in the U.S. in 2023, which is slightly more optimistic than consensus expectations.<\/p>\n

The firm held its Global Strategy Conference for clients in London on Monday, where it polled over attendees.<\/p>\n

The consensus suggests that the average recession<\/a> probability stands at 65%, according to Goldman, who said the “relative bullishness” might be because the market has bounced so far this year, and there has been recent good news on the growth-inflation mix.<\/p>\n

“Our economists do not expect a recession in the U.S. Their recession probability stands at 35%. Part of this disagreement with consensus arises from our more optimistic view on whether a recession is necessary to tame inflation,” said Goldman Sachs analysts.<\/p>\n

In addition, Goldman Sachs asked clients when they expect the first rate cuts, with 52% stating they expect the first cut in the first half of 2024. Meanwhile, 20% believe the Fed will cut rates this year.<\/p>\n

“Our economists think that there are two possible rationales for cutting the funds rate in the future: 1) if declines and Fed officials decide that policy does not need to be as restrictive anymore; 2) if the economy is entering recession or threatens to do so without an easing in monetary policy,” added the analysts. “Our economists are doubtful that a goods-driven decline in inflation that they expect in 2023 would be sufficient to give the FOMC confidence that inflation is moving down in a sustained way and do not expect the U.S. to enter a recession this year. Thus, they expect the FOMC to just leave the policy rate unchanged until something goes wrong.”<\/p>\n

Elsewhere on Tuesday, BofA analysts told investors that its fund manager survey shows “the humans are still bearish but a lot less bearish than in Q4.”<\/p>\n

They pointed to optimism regarding China and the Fed as drivers of the less bearishness stance, with the survey results also suggesting recession concerns are fading on the China reopening.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Read More<\/a>
\n Stephania Fleishman<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a9 Reuters Goldman Sachs clients slightly more optimistic on 2023 recession probability By Sam Boughedda Goldman Sachs said on Tuesday that 57% of its clients expect a recession in the U.S. in 2023, which is slightly more optimistic than consensus expectations. The firm held its Global Strategy Conference for clients in London on Monday, where […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":598420,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[534,97,98],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-598419","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-financial","8":"category-goldman","9":"category-sachs"},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598419","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=598419"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598419\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/598420"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=598419"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=598419"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsycanuse.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=598419"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}