Predicting this year’s Fernando Mendoza: College football stars who can make the leap

If you had asked any college football fan or pundit last year if they believed Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza would be a Heisman Trophy finalist, let alone the winner, they probably would’ve had to look him up first. The California transfer’s 2025 was one for the history books as he continued to defy doubters and led the Hoosiers to an improbable perfect championship campaign.

Can anyone in 2026 repeat that? It’s unlikely, but it’s always worth examining some potential surprise candidates that could challenge the conventional frontrunners. These are four quarterbacks that have the best chance of giving Texas’ Arch Manning and Oregon’s Dante Moore a run for their money this year.

Jayden Maiava – USC

The 2025 season was a mixed bag for the Trojans, but anything less than a College Football Playoff berth is considered a failure for the Lincoln Riley regime. In his second year in Los Angeles, Maiava showed signs he could be poised for a breakout campaign in 2026. The 6-foot-4, 230-pound senior threw for 3,711 yards and 24 touchdowns, but his 10 interceptions were the main area of concern.

USC lost four games, including a tough overtime defeat to TCU in the Alamo Bowl, and Heisman winners typically come from undefeated programs. It’s a lot to ask of Maiava to take USC from a four-loss year to an undefeated season, but now that Mendoza did it for Indiana, the talent and resources the Trojans boast should be able to ease that leap. Don’t be surprised if the 22-year-old is in New York City in December and then a first-round selection next April.

Byrum Brown – Auburn

If this was the Auburn of a decade ago, Brown would have a much higher profile to operate with in the SEC. However, the Tigers are not expected to threaten for a championship despite such a heavy turnover on the coaching staff and roster. Brown came in from South Florida after displaying a deadly dual-threat ability. He tossed for 3,158 yards, ran for another 1,008 and was responsible for 42 total touchdowns for the Bulls in 2025.

That should automatically put him in the spotlight, but his choice of transfer will dim that somewhat. That’s why he’s on this list and could surprise a lot of folks should he continue his upward trajectory in his fifth college season. At 6-foot-3, 235 pounds, Brown is going to be a force individually. He may be relied on to run the ball more since he won’t be operating with a wide receiver corps to the standard of SEC contenders. Even so, he could seriously be a bulked-up version of Jayden Daniels and that will put the entire sport on notice.

John Mateer – Oklahoma

Everyone’s focused on Texas’ transition to the SEC and the success the Longhorns will see with Arch Manning supposedly ready to peak in 2026. Nobody’s talking about Oklahoma and the dark horses the Sooners will be in the conference despite their 2025 CFP appearance. Quarterback John Mateer led them there with a relatively average season, throwing for 2,885 yards, 10 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. If he makes the right improvements in training camp, there’s a Heisman campaign waiting to break out.

Oklahoma’s schedule is manageable yet stacked enough to get Mateer into the national eye — should he deliver. A Week 2 rematch with the Michigan Wolverines will be the first opportunity to put the college football world on notice. After that, meetings with Georgia, Texas and eventually Ole Miss and Texas A&M will be the games to circle where Mateer needs to put up significant numbers and pull off upsets.

Josh Hoover – Indiana

Could lightning strike twice for head coach Curt Cignetti? He knew what he was doing when he scouted out Mendoza in the transfer portal. You have to imagine he saw the right qualities in Hoover, who was the top QB transfer prospect this year. The former TCU Horned Frog tossed for 3,472 yards and 29 touchdowns last season, but his 13 interceptions are going to have to be slashed considerably in 2026.

Don’t be shocked if, by the program’s Oct. 17 marquee matchup with Ohio State, the defending champs are undefeated and the “Hoosier Hoover” Heisman campaign is well underway. Indiana’s first six opponents — North Texas, Howard, Western Kentucky, Northwestern Rutgers and Nebraska — offer ample opportunity for the 23-year-old senior to rack up massive yardage and points. The back half of the schedule, however, is where his winning abilities will be directly compared to Mendoza as the opposition is a lot tougher: Ohio State, Michigan, Minnesota, USC, Washington and Purdue.