Weiss Crypto says Bitcoin may be approaching one of its strongest buying opportunities in years, with senior analyst Juan M. Villaverde arguing that a coming pullback could mark the final confirmation that the market’s bearish phase has ended.
In a post on X, Weiss Crypto said its latest cycle analysis shows “exactly how low BTC could drop before this bear market ends” and why that could be “great news for the next leg up.” The comments came alongside a new video analysis from Villaverde, who said several of his macro, liquidity and cycle models are again pointing in the same direction: short-term downside, but within a broader constructive setup.
Bitcoin Pullback Seen As Bullish Confirmation
Villaverde said Bitcoin has largely continued to trade in line with macro signals, despite temporary deviations around geopolitical and legislative events. He pointed to a February low that his framework had been tracking since last year, followed by a rally that he said was weaker than expected.
“We’ve been looking at this February bottom since last year. We’ve been talking about a Q4 correction since Q4 of last year. We were expecting a sell-off into February,” Villaverde said. He added that he began buying Bitcoin in late January because the market was already close to the expected cycle window.
The rally that followed, however, did not extend as far as he had anticipated. Villaverde said liquidity and bond-market signals had suggested Bitcoin could reach $90,000 or $100,000, but the market was disrupted by geopolitical risk, particularly the escalation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. In his view, that created a two-week deviation from the macro path rather than a structural break in the model.
“Bitcoin has been moving alongside the macro,” he said, after filtering out that period. He argued that liquidity topped around the same time as Bitcoin and then began moving lower, while bond-market signals also pointed toward a downturn.
Villaverde said he had been watching whether enthusiasm around the Clarity Act heading for a Senate vote could override the bearish short-term signals. “This is the only chance Bitcoin has of ignoring the bearish liquidity outlook and the bearish planetary models,” he said. But after that catalyst failed to generate a decisive breakout, he said the weight of the evidence remained tilted toward downside.
Analyst Says He Is Not Calling For $50K Bitcoin
The central point of the analysis was not that Bitcoin is entering a deeper bear market. Villaverde stressed that his framework is pointing to a correction inside a changed regime, not a collapse.
“I just want to zoom out here and be very clear. I’m not predicting 50K. I’m not even saying it goes below $70K. I’m not even sure it goes below $70K,” he said. “I think that if you’re shorting this, this is not really what my framework is suggesting. My framework is suggesting that this is the correction that confirms that the bear market is over.”
That distinction is key to the Weiss Crypto thesis. Villaverde said the bond-market model, which he described as looking 13 months ahead, still implies that the February low should not be retested. Liquidity, which he said looks forward roughly 12 weeks, has also begun to follow that broader path by forming a June-July low and turning toward a prospective rally.
“If these two do not make new lows, my expectation is Bitcoin does not make new lows,” he said.
In terms of downside, Villaverde said a move toward $60,000 remains possible under his Hurst cycle framework without invalidating the bullish structure. Still, he described the $65,000 to $66,000 area as more likely because it would preserve a higher low and keep the 320-day cycle right-translated, a structure he characterized as bullish.
Rather than selling spot or shorting Bitcoin, Villaverde said he is approaching the setup through options. With Bitcoin near $80,000, he said he has been selling calls, while a sell-off would lead him to begin selling puts around $70,000, $65,000 or $60,000.
The larger implication, according to Villaverde, is that Bitcoin may be forming an unusually shallow bear-market structure, shaped by institutional demand. “If we see that, that would be the most shallow bear market in crypto history,” he said, adding that it may have ended with a single low that was not retested.
At press time, BTC traded at $72,043.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons