Football
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How much does home-pitch advantage matter in the World Cup? The United States, Mexico, and Canada are all hosting this World Cup, with the U.S. shouldering the bulk of the hosting load. Additionally, of the three host nations, the United States has the most talent. The Americans are not the most-talented team in this tournament, or even in the top 10. However, they are skilled, they have upside, and they have the advantage of playing in their own country.
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Mexico has the most-storied history of the three host nations when it comes to soccer. At present, though, the team has less talent than the United States, and possibly even Canada, at least at the upper echelon. El Tri lacks for players on high-end European clubs. History, passion, and the advantage of being at home could help, although from the quarterfinals on, every game in the World Cup is happening in the United States.
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If you are hosting a World Cup, and you aren’t South Africa or Qatar, it’s plausible to draw up a path to winning it all. Sure, this isn’t hockey, and the Canadian men’s hockey team lost to the United States at the Olympics anyway. Canada, though, has Alphonso Davies. Yes, it has a few other good players as well, such as Jonathan David. Davies, though, is an elite player when healthy, and an indicator Canada is not merely coasting on games being held in Toronto and Vancouver.
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Alright, now that we’ve knocked out the three host nations, let’s move on to some nations bound to be bandied about. It’s the World Cup, so Germany needs to be mentioned. The country has won four World Cups, most recently in 2014. Now, the Germans did go out in the group stage in each of the last two tournaments, but this is a footballing nation. This year’s tournament is something of a changing of the guard, with the Thomas Muller generation ceding to the Florian Wirtz generation. Germany could use a better option in goal, but you can’t count it out.
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England is, genuinely, as talented as any team in this tournament. The sheer number of attacking options this team has is remarkable, and a lot of these guys are just entering their primes (though Harry Kane is not, to be fair). England has been the runner-up in each of the last two Euros, which is encouraging, but second place is not first place. Winning means getting over the hump, but at least England is at the hump!
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Brazil, like Germany, needs to be mentioned in a scenario like this. It has won five World Cups, and it has not failed to make the quarterfinals since 1990. Of course, Brazil hasn’t won since 2002, a proper drought for this country. Brazil is also getting an influx of young talent, but are the likes of Estevao and Endrick too young for this World Cup? Might the Brazilians be favorites in 2030?
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The Dutch are often thought of as being in the mix. Indeed, they have been runners-up three times, and have finished in the top four twice more. On the other hand, as recently as 2018 they missed the World Cup entirely. Of course, the nature of an every-four-years tournament means that this is a different collection of talent. Virgil van Dijk is still around, but otherwise there is a lot of talent here that the Dutch could have used in 2018.
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Norway isn’t just Erling Haaland. Martin Odegaard is no slouch himself. In the end, though, we think Norway could win the World Cup for one primary reason. That reason is that the best goal scorer in the world is Norwegian. If Haaland is locked in, he could win the Golden Boot and the Golden Ball en route to pulling off an international upset.
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In 2022, Morocco shifted the paradigm for African nations. The Moroccans finished fourth in that tournament, something never before seen from an African side. Morocco is also the defending champ of the African Cup of Nations technically, but that’s a story for another day. Sure, history may not repeat itself, but just four years ago this country was at the doorstep of the World Cup final.
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Frankly, Portugal’s chances of winning the World Cup are hindered by Cristiano Ronaldo, not helped by him. Part of the problem is the expectation that Ronaldo will not serve as a goal-poaching sub, which is about all he can viably do at this point. Portugal has so much talent it may not matter, but it could be heavy favorites with Ronaldo in a tertiary role.
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Just because the golden generation’s time has passed doesn’t mean Belgium has turned into a pumpkin. You might be skeptical of a nation that couldn’t win it all when Kevin de Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku were in their primes, but that doesn’t mean Belgium can’t do it. There’s still plenty of talent to go around here.
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Will Senegal get any extra motivation from the fact it had the African Cup of Nations title taken away (fair as that was)? Some of the big names, like Sadio Mane, are in this for a last hurrah, but we’d argue Senegal is the most-talented African side in this tournament. It was also drawn into the toughest group, which lowers the odds.
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Conversely, Colombia is in an easy group. On the one hand, while Luis Diaz is excelling with Bayern Munich, several former Colombian stars now play in the Americas. On the other hand, if you believe in ELO ratings vis-à-vis national soccer clubs, Colombia is one of the half-dozen best teams in this tournament. Let us see which wins out.
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Marcelo Bielsa is managing Uruguay, which means it could win it all or flame out in the group stage. Uruguay tends to do well in this tournament, though, perhaps in honor of winning the first World Cup. There is a problem in figuring out who might score, but if Bielsa’s style can work around that, Uruguay could do what it did back in 1930.
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Being our pick for best Asian nation in this tournament didn’t inherently earn Japan a spot here. However, there are several good footballing countries in Asia, so being the best of the bunch means being quite good. Japan also has a winnable group. With the right draw after that, Japan has the goods to win the World Cup.
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The fact that Luka Modric has defied time is what allows Croatia to still have a chance to win the World Cup. He’s 40 and he’s still a viable starting midfielder for a major European club. Croatia was third in 2022 and second in 2018. What if, this time, Modric is able to work his magic just a bit more?
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In each of the last three World Cups, Switzerland has made the round of 16, and in the last two Euros it has been a quarterfinalist. At least a couple of those instances felt like falling short, though. Does that mean the Swiss will continue to fail to meet the moment? Maybe, or maybe this time the breaks go their way and they win it all.
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We will end with the three teams getting the most attention. Spain is probably something of a co-favorite, and many consider it the favorite. In 2024, Spain tore through the Euro tournament. The country is absolutely loaded with young talent right now. That, of course, includes Lamine Yamal. He turns 19 in July and is already one of the 10 best players in the world. Maybe 2026 is a little too early for this group, but Spain is the early favorite for 2030 to be sure.
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France is the other common pick to win it all, and with good reason. It won in 2018 and was the runner-up in 2022. The French made the semifinals at Euro 2024 as well. Kylian Mbappe is still only 27. He seems to take his game to a new level when he dons his national jersey. It’s easy to see France winning the World Cup once again.
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We end, though, with the defending champs. Do we think Argentina repeats? No. Can it repeat? Absolutely. Yes, Lionel Messi has lost a step since 2022, but just a step. He’s joined by the likes of Julian Alvarez and Alexis McAllister. Some figured 2022 was Messi’s “Last Dance.” What if it ends up being 2026 instead?
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