Championship promotion and playoff permutations: What Ipswich, Millwall, Middlesbrough, Wrexham, Hull and Derby need on final day

After another brutal and competitive season of Championship football, the race for second spot and the final playoff place will go down to the last day of the 2025-26 campaign.

Coventry City have secured the league title, but it is still unclear who will join Frank Lampard’s side in celebrating automatic promotion.

Ipswich Town, Millwall and Middlesbrough will all head into the weekend with hopes of clinching second place. 

Automatic promotion is out of reach for Wrexham, Hull City and Derby County, but their Premier League dreams are still alive, with the trio set to battle it out for sixth position in the Championship table.

Here, Sports Mole covers all of the permutations ahead of a nerve-wracking final round of Championship fixtures, which will all get underway at 12:30pm on Saturday, May 2. 

Automatic promotion permutations

Ipswich missed the chance to all but seal automatic promotion in Tuesday’s 2-2 draw against Southampton.

That said, Jack Clarke’s late equaliser salvaged a useful point for Ipswich and knocked Southampton out of the race for automatic promotion.

Kieran McKenna‘s charges will head into the final day of the Championship season in the driving seat for second spot, boasting a record of 81 points, +30 goal difference, 77 goals scored, and 47 goals conceded.

Millwall are in second position with 80 points and a goal difference of +13 after scoring 70 goals and conceding 49 during the course of the campaign.

Third-placed Middlesbrough have 79 points to their name, 70 goals scored and 45 conceded, leaving them with a goal difference of +25 ahead of the final round of fixtures. 

What do Ipswich need to secure second place?

Ipswich know that a win on the final day of the season would guarantee an immediate return to the Premier League.

If Ipswich draw, they will clinch second place if Millwall and Middlesbrough fail to win. That said, they could still go up with a draw and a Middlesbrough win as long as Kim Hellberg‘s side fails to overturn the five-goal deficit in goal difference.

If the event of a defeat to QPR, Ipswich would only go up if their two promotion rivals fail to pick up maximum points.  

What do Millwall need to secure second place?

Millwall will go up if they beat relegated Oxford and Ipswich fail to beat QPR at Portman Road.

A draw and an Ipswich defeat would leave the two sides level on points, but the Lions would miss out due to their inferior goal difference. 

What do Middlesbrough need to secure second place?

Middlesbrough will leapfrog their fellow promotion contenders if they win, Ipswich lose and Millwall do not beat Oxford. 

If Ipswich draw and Millwall drop points, Boro would need to win and overturn a five-goal deficit in goal difference to snatch second spot. 

Top-six permutations

Wrexham and Hull head into the final game of the season level on 70 points. The Red Dragons occupy sixth spot with a goal difference of +4 after scoring 67 goals and conceding 63 across their 46 league games.

The Tigers, meanwhile, enter matchday 46 with a +3 goal difference, having netted 68 times and conceded 65 goals in the Championship this term.

Derby, meanwhile, are sitting a point behind in eighth position with a goal difference of +9 after scoring 66 goals and conceding 57. 

What do Wrexham need to secure sixth spot?

Wrexham need to better Hull’s result and at least match Derby’s result if they are to keep hold of sixth place.

Goal difference will come into play if Wrexham match Hull’s result. If the two sides are level on goal difference, the number of goals scored will be used as the next tiebreaker.

What do Hull need to secure sixth spot?

Hull will grab the final playoff berth if they better Wrexham’s result and at least match the outcome of Derby’s home clash with Sheffield United.

If Hull and Wrexham win, Sergej Jakirovic‘s side would need to overturn a one-goal deficit on goal difference to secure a top-six finish.

What do Derby need to secure sixth spot?

Derby need to do their job and hope for favours elsewhere if they are to snatch sixth place.

The Rams will achieve their objective if they beat Sheffield United and their two top-six rivals fail to win.

If they draw at Pride Park, John Eustace‘s charges will need Wrexham and Hull both to lose to climb into the playoffs. 

What happens if Wrexham and Hull finish level on points, goal difference and goals scored?

In the unlikely scenario that Wrexham and Hull finish level on points, goal difference and goals scored, then the head-to-head record between the two clubs will come into play in what would be a dramatic turn of events. 

Hull would come out on top in that scenario after completing a league double over Phil Parkinson‘s side, claiming a 2-0 home win in December and a 2-1 success in March’s trip to the Racecourse Ground.