A new report from Bitget and Polymarket reveals that prediction markets are evolving into a $240 billion industry driven by retail users who are trading more frequently on everything from crypto to politics.
May 2, 2026, 1:00 p.m. 2 min read
Prediction markets are shifting from one-off bets tied to major events into platforms driven by daily user engagement, according to a new report from Bitget Wallet in partnership with Polymarket.
Trading volume on Polymarket reached $25.7 billion in March, but the report points to a deeper change in behavior. Based on activity from 1.29 million wallets in the first quarter, users are returning more often and participating across a wider range of markets, from crypto to sports to politics.
The data suggest growth is being driven by frequency rather than trade size. More than 82% of users traded less than $10,000 during the quarter, a sign the market remains dominated by retail participants. Instead of placing large, infrequent bets, users are engaging in smaller trades more regularly.
“Prediction markets are becoming less about capital and more about consistent, repeated actions,” said Alvin Kan, Bitget Wallet’s chief operating officer. “What we’re seeing is a behavioral shift: The market is scaling with more taps per day, not bigger trades.”
Crypto remains the primary entry point for new users, accounting for nearly 40% of early activity. Its continuous trading and familiar price movements make it a natural starting place. But as users become more active, participation shifts toward markets tied to real-world events.
The report frames this evolution as a structural change. Prediction markets are no longer driven solely by spikes around major occurrences like elections. Instead, they are becoming continuous systems where users return regularly to track and respond to changing probabilities.
“As prediction markets evolve into core financial infrastructure, distribution becomes as important as the underlying market itself,” said Elden Mirzoian, director of growth and partnerships at Polymarket. “We’re seeing a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement.”
That shift is also changing how these markets are used. Prices increasingly reflect real-time expectations around macroeconomic trends, politics and culture, and are beginning to appear alongside traditional data sources in media and financial analysis.
Growth has accelerated quickly. Monthly trading volume has climbed from about $1.2 billion in 2025 to more than $20 billion in early 2026, while active wallets have more than tripled in six months. Industry projections cited in the report estimate the market could reach $240 billion in volume this year, with a longer-term path toward $1 trillion.
As participation increases, the focus is moving toward access and usability. Wallets are emerging as key entry points, helping users discover markets and interact with them in real time.
AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
More For You
Bitcoin recovered from a midweek dip to $75,500 to climb back above $78,000 by Saturday morning in Asia, with the Senate’s stablecoin yield compromise removing a key roadblock to crypto market structure legislation.
What to know:
- Bitcoin hovered near $78,000 after rebounding from midweek Iran-related jitters, as traders awaited a clearer macroeconomic catalyst to push it decisively higher.
- U.S. stocks notched fresh records, with the S&P 500 logging a fifth straight weekly gain and the Nasdaq 100 lifted by strong tech earnings from Apple and Oracle.
Read More
Helene Braun