Bitcoins
- Citigroup lowered its 12-month Bitcoin forecast from US$143K to US$112K and its Ethereum target from US$4,304 to US$3,175, citing weaker network activity and slower legislative progress.
- The bank cut its projected bitcoin ETF demand from US$15 billion to US$10 billion.
- However, it still considers institutional inflows through ETFs the single most important catalyst for crypto prices.
Citigroup cut its 12-month cryptocurrency forecasts on March 17, lowering its Bitcoin (BTC) target by about 22% to US$112,000 (AU$157,500) and its Ethereum (ETH) estimate by roughly 26% to US$3,175 (AU$4,465), citing weaker network activity and delays in U.S. regulation.
In a note, the bank pointed to declining on-chain usage, reduced expectations for exchange-traded fund inflows, and signs of fatigue in derivatives markets as key drivers behind the downgrade.
Its projection for Bitcoin ETF demand was reduced from US$15 billion (AU$21 billion) to US$10 billion (AU$14 billion), although institutional flows through ETFs remain the main source of price support.
Read more: SEC and CFTC Sign Pact to Coordinate Crypto Oversight
Legislation Hits a Wall
Progress on US crypto legislation has stalled.
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, approved by the House in July 2025, has been held in the Senate Banking Committee since January. Disagreements over stablecoin yield rules intensified after opposition from the American Bankers Association, and lawmakers have indicated the bill is unlikely to advance before April.
Market-based estimates now place the probability of passage at around 56–60%. Additional provisions restricting elected officials from profiting from crypto ventures were identified as a potential barrier to final approval.
Citigroup said the window for meaningful regulatory catalysts this year is narrowing, which could limit further institutional adoption.
The bank outlined a range of possible outcomes. In a stronger adoption scenario, Bitcoin could reach US$165,000 (AU$232,155) and ETH US$4,488 (AU$6,315). Under weaker macroeconomic conditions, targets fall to US$58,000 (AU$81,606) for Bitcoin and US$1,198 (AU$1,685) for ETH.
The revision aligns with a broader pullback in bullish projections across Wall Street. Standard Chartered recently reduced its Bitcoin outlook to US$100K (AU$140K), down from US$150K (AU$211K) set in late 2025.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading near US$74K (AU$104K), with US$70K (AU$98K) identified as a key level tied to its pre-election price.
ETH, around US$2,315 (AU$3,257), is particularly sensitive to declines in user activity.
Related: Vitalik Buterin Proposes Simplifying Ethereum Nodes to Boost Decentralisation
José Oramas Read More