Football
ESPN’s Bill Connelly recently released his initial SP+ projections for the 2026 season for all 138 Division I football teams, which leads us to analyze what those projections mean for Cal’s 2026 season.
Before we go further it should be noted that ESPN’s final SP+ projections for 2025, posted last August, ranked Indiana No. 23 and Virginia No. 74, which was 15th among ACC schools. As we know now Indiana went undefeated and won the national championship while Virginia wound up with the best ACC record.
So this predictive method should not be considered the final word.
Nonetheless it is still a metric worthy of discussion. Connelly explains that that the overall SP+ rankings as well as the rankings for offense, defense and special teams, are based on four factors — returning production, recent history, recent recruiting and coaching change effects.
Cal is ranked 56th overall, which places the Bears 13th among the 17 ACC schools.
That does not provide an optimistic view of Cal’s chances next season, but there is some favorable news for Cal in the numbers, and it comes in the form of Cal’s 2026 schedule.
The Bears will not face a single team ranked in the top 20 of the SP+ ratings.
Furthermore, Cal’s ACC schedule seems particularly advantageous. Cal will not play the only ACC team ranked in the SP+ top 20 – No. 8 Miami – and the highest-rated ACC team Cal will face – No. 23 Clemson – must come to Berkeley to play Cal on the Bears home field. The Bears won’t play the third-highest ranked ACC team – No. 27 Louisville – either.
Meanwhile, Cal will play three of the four teams ranked lower than Cal – No. 58 Wake Forest, No. 69 Syracuse and No. 75 Stanford. The only bottom-four team Cal misses is No. 74 Boston College.
Regarding the unit rankings, Cal’s offense ranks 50th with a 29.2 rating. That’s the best of Cal’s unit rankings, presumably because of the return of quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and the addition of transfer wide receivers Ian Strong and Chase Hendricks as well as running back Adam Mohammed.
In fact, with that collection of talent, you would expect the Bears to rank higher than 50th.
Cal’s defensive rating of 25.2 gives the Bears a No. 62 ranking in that category, and that’s to be expected considering the amount of talent Cal lost on that side of the ball. The personnel losses include all-ACC first-team linebacker Cade Uluave (now at BYU), ACC freshman defensive player of the year Luke Ferrelli (now at Mississippi), and two cornerbacks expected to be taken in the upcoming NFL draft – Paco Austin and Hezekiah Masses.
Cal’s special teams rating of minus-0.3 ranks 95th in the country and is troubling. Cal showed modest improvement in field-goal efficiency last year, and Chase Meyer, who is accurate from inside 40 yards, is back.
But the status of Cal’s standout punt and kick returner, Jacob De Jesus, remains uncertain. He is still awaiting a court ruling on whether he will be eligible for an additional season of college football.
If the judge issues a temporary restraining order, allowing De Jesus to play for Cal in 2026, it would not only improve the Bears’ special teams but would enhance the offense as well since he led the nation in receptions in 2025 with 108.
Connelly says the effects of coaching changes are factored into the rating, so you have to wonder how the addition of new head coach Tosh Lupoi and first-time coordinators Jordan Somerville on offense and Michael Hutchings on defense figured into the ratings.
The opinion around the country is nearly unanimous that Lupoi will improve the Cal football program. But he has never been a head coach and the men assigned to run the offense and defense have never performed those roles either. It leaves a lot of uncertainty regarding how the coaching change should be gauged.
The bottom line is that the SP+ metrics suggest Cal will have just a so-so regular season – something around 6-6 — but the level of opposition the Bears will face suggests a better record overall and in the conference for Cal.
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