Friday, 03/04/2026 | 08:21 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
- The note turns a yes-or-no market outcome into a fixed coupon, repackaging event risk into a familiar format.
- The structure works only as long as prediction markets remain liquid enough to hedge the exposure.
Financial services firm Marex has created and sold a structured note linked to the outcome of a prediction market, offering investors a new way to structure event-based payoffs.
The product is a bond-like note that pays a 7% coupon depending on whether Nvidia Corp. remains the world’s largest company in a year. Instead of taking a direct binary position, investors receive a conditional payout, while their principal is protected, subject to Marex’s credit risk.
How the Structure Works
The note converts a binary outcome into a structured payoff.
Rather than placing a direct trade on a prediction market, the investor receives a fixed coupon if the condition is met.
Nilesh Jethwa, CEO at Marex Solutions
This allows exposure to the same underlying event in a format more familiar to institutional investors.
The issuance, with a size of up to $10 million and sold to a Swiss client, serves as an early example of how such products can be structured.
“Marex is going to effectively build our own prediction market structured products, and then leverage Kalshi and other exchanges to replicate that,” said Nilesh Jethwa, CEO of Marex Solutions.
Hedging Through Prediction Markets
The structure relies on prediction markets for risk management.
Marex hedges its exposure by taking positions in underlying event contracts on platforms such as Kalshi, allowing it to offset the payout risk embedded in the note.
As a structured product provider, Marex does not retain directional exposure. Instead, it aims to capture the spread between the coupon offered to investors and the cost of hedging.
This approach depends on the availability and liquidity of prediction markets. Activity is often concentrated in a limited number of contracts, which can affect pricing and hedging efficiency. In less liquid markets, the cost of hedging may increase or become less reliable.
London-based Marex Group Plc created and sold the first instance of this new kind of security, which will pay out a 7% coupon if Nvidia Corp. is still the world’s largest company in a year. Marex was able to create the note because prediction markets like Kalshi offer it a place… https://t.co/bTUcDWcVsi
— Mick Bransfield (@MickBransfield) April 2, 2026
Related Developments
Other market participants have pointed to similar use cases. Structured products linked to event outcomes could be used to hedge tail risks or express views on specific scenarios.
Parallel efforts are also emerging. Roundhill Investments has filed with the SEC to launch ETFs tied to election outcomes, while Marex has indicated it may provide swaps on similar event-driven exposures
What It Means for the Market
For brokers and structured product providers, the Marex note shows how prediction market outcomes can be incorporated into existing financial products.
It introduces a way to translate event-based risk into structured payoffs that fit within established investment frameworks. At the same time, its broader adoption will depend on market depth, regulatory clarity, and the ability to manage hedging risk in practice.
Financial services firm Marex has created and sold a structured note linked to the outcome of a prediction market, offering investors a new way to structure event-based payoffs.
The product is a bond-like note that pays a 7% coupon depending on whether Nvidia Corp. remains the world’s largest company in a year. Instead of taking a direct binary position, investors receive a conditional payout, while their principal is protected, subject to Marex’s credit risk.
How the Structure Works
The note converts a binary outcome into a structured payoff.
Rather than placing a direct trade on a prediction market, the investor receives a fixed coupon if the condition is met.
Nilesh Jethwa, CEO at Marex Solutions
This allows exposure to the same underlying event in a format more familiar to institutional investors.
The issuance, with a size of up to $10 million and sold to a Swiss client, serves as an early example of how such products can be structured.
“Marex is going to effectively build our own prediction market structured products, and then leverage Kalshi and other exchanges to replicate that,” said Nilesh Jethwa, CEO of Marex Solutions.
Hedging Through Prediction Markets
The structure relies on prediction markets for risk management.
Marex hedges its exposure by taking positions in underlying event contracts on platforms such as Kalshi, allowing it to offset the payout risk embedded in the note.
As a structured product provider, Marex does not retain directional exposure. Instead, it aims to capture the spread between the coupon offered to investors and the cost of hedging.
This approach depends on the availability and liquidity of prediction markets. Activity is often concentrated in a limited number of contracts, which can affect pricing and hedging efficiency. In less liquid markets, the cost of hedging may increase or become less reliable.
London-based Marex Group Plc created and sold the first instance of this new kind of security, which will pay out a 7% coupon if Nvidia Corp. is still the world’s largest company in a year. Marex was able to create the note because prediction markets like Kalshi offer it a place… https://t.co/bTUcDWcVsi
— Mick Bransfield (@MickBransfield) April 2, 2026
Related Developments
Other market participants have pointed to similar use cases. Structured products linked to event outcomes could be used to hedge tail risks or express views on specific scenarios.
Parallel efforts are also emerging. Roundhill Investments has filed with the SEC to launch ETFs tied to election outcomes, while Marex has indicated it may provide swaps on similar event-driven exposures
What It Means for the Market
For brokers and structured product providers, the Marex note shows how prediction market outcomes can be incorporated into existing financial products.
It introduces a way to translate event-based risk into structured payoffs that fit within established investment frameworks. At the same time, its broader adoption will depend on market depth, regulatory clarity, and the ability to manage hedging risk in practice.
- 150 Articles
Tanya Chepkova is a News Editor at Finance Magnates with more than 16 years of experience in financial journalism, covering forex, crypto, and digital asset markets. Her work spans daily industry reporting and data-driven, long-form explainers focused on market structure, trading models, and regulatory shifts.
Before joining Finance Magnates, she led the editorial team of a cryptocurrency-focused media outlet for six years. Her reporting combines analytical depth with clear storytelling, with particular attention to how structural changes in trading, stablecoin infrastructure, and emerging products such as prediction markets reshape the broader financial ecosystem. She covers global developments and provides additional insight into CIS markets.
Areas of Coverage:
Crypto and digital asset markets
Prediction markets
Stablecoins and cross-border payments
Industry analysis and long-form explainers
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– Metals Demand: Why metals are seeing the strongest demand from both retail and institutional clients right now.
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– AI in Workflow: Where CMC Markets is integrating machine learning for risk management and pricing, and the limitations of AI during stressed markets.
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Winners will be announced at the Cyprus Gala Dinner on November 6, 2026.
Nominate your brand now.
https://awards.financemagnates.com/?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=nominations-open#FMAwards #FinanceMagnates #FintechAwards #Fintech #FinanceIndustry
The Finance Magnates Awards 2026 nominations are now open. 🏆
From fintech innovators to leading brokers, this is where the finance industry celebrates its biggest achievements.
Winners will be announced at the Cyprus Gala Dinner on November 6, 2026.
Nominate your brand now.
https://awards.financemagnates.com/?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=nominations-open#FMAwards #FinanceMagnates #FintechAwards #Fintech #FinanceIndustry
The Finance Magnates Awards 2026 nominations are now open. 🏆From fintech innovators to leading brokers, this is where the finance industry celebrates its biggest achievements.
Winners will be announced at the Cyprus Gala Dinner on November 6, 2026.
Nominate your brand now.
https://awards.financemagnates.com/?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=nominations-open#FMAwards #FinanceMagnates #FintechAwards #Fintech #FinanceIndustry
The Finance Magnates Awards 2026 nominations are now open. 🏆
From fintech innovators to leading brokers, this is where the finance industry celebrates its biggest achievements.
Winners will be announced at the Cyprus Gala Dinner on November 6, 2026.
Nominate your brand now.
https://awards.financemagnates.com/?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=nominations-open#FMAwards #FinanceMagnates #FintechAwards #Fintech #FinanceIndustry
The Finance Magnates Awards 2026 nominations are now open. 🏆From fintech innovators to leading brokers, this is where the finance industry celebrates its biggest achievements.
Winners will be announced at the Cyprus Gala Dinner on November 6, 2026.
Nominate your brand now.
https://awards.financemagnates.com/?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=nominations-open#FMAwards #FinanceMagnates #FintechAwards #Fintech #FinanceIndustry
Finance Magnates Awards 2026 | Nominations Now Open 🏆#Fintech #FMAwards #TradingIndustry
Finance Magnates Awards 2026 | Nominations Now Open 🏆#Fintech #FMAwards #TradingIndustry
Finance Magnates Awards 2026 | Nominations Now Open 🏆#Fintech #FMAwards #TradingIndustry
Finance Magnates Awards 2026 | Nominations Now Open 🏆#Fintech #FMAwards #TradingIndustry
Finance Magnates Awards 2026 | Nominations Now Open 🏆#Fintech #FMAwards #TradingIndustry
Finance Magnates Awards 2026 | Nominations Now Open 🏆#Fintech #FMAwards #TradingIndustry
Lights on. Cameras ready. 🎬
Finance Magnates Awards 2026 nominations are now open. 🏆#FMAwards #FinanceMagnates #FintechAwards #Fintech
Lights on. Cameras ready. 🎬
Finance Magnates Awards 2026 nominations are now open. 🏆#FMAwards #FinanceMagnates #FintechAwards #Fintech
Lights on. Cameras ready. 🎬
Finance Magnates Awards 2026 nominations are now open. 🏆#FMAwards #FinanceMagnates #FintechAwards #Fintech
Lights on. Cameras ready. 🎬
Finance Magnates Awards 2026 nominations are now open. 🏆#FMAwards #FinanceMagnates #FintechAwards #Fintech
Lights on. Cameras ready. 🎬
Finance Magnates Awards 2026 nominations are now open. 🏆#FMAwards #FinanceMagnates #FintechAwards #Fintech
Lights on. Cameras ready. 🎬
Finance Magnates Awards 2026 nominations are now open. 🏆#FMAwards #FinanceMagnates #FintechAwards #Fintech
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Tanya Chepkova