Michigan vs. Arizona odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament Final Four picks by proven model

A spot in the 2026 NCAA Tournament men’s national championship game is on the line when the West Region champion Arizona Wildcats take on the Midwest Region champion Michigan Wolverines on Saturday, April 4, in the 2026 Final Four. Arizona advanced with a 79-64 win over Purdue in the Elite Eight, while Michigan cruised past Tennessee 95-62. The Wildcats (36-2), who won the Big 12 regular season at 16-2 and the conference tournament championship, are 14-2 against ranked opponents. The Wolverines (35-3), who won the Big Ten regular season at 19-1, are 11-2 against ranked foes.

Tipoff from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis is set for 8:49 p.m. ET. The Wolverines are 1.5-point favorites in the latest Michigan vs. Arizona odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 157.5. Before making any Arizona vs. Michigan picks, check out the Michigan vs. Arizona predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 Elite Eight on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks.

Now, the model has simulated Michigan vs. Arizona 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several college basketball odds and college basketball lines for Arizona vs. Michigan:

Basketball Top Michigan vs. Arizona predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Arizona vs. Michigan, SportsLine’s model is going Under on the total (157.5 points). The Under hit in the last meeting between the schools. The Under has hit in 22 of the 38 Michigan games, and in two of the last three Arizona games. The Under has also hit in nine of the last 13 Michigan games against teams who average 72 or more points.

The model projects the Wolverines to have just three players to score in double digits, led by Yaxel Lendeborg, who is projected to score 16.7 points. The Wildcats are expected to be led in scoring by Brayden Burries, who is projected to score 15 points, one of just three players in double figures. The model is projecting 153 combined points as the Under clears in 58% of simulations. You can get the spread pick at SportsLine.

Basketball How to make Arizona vs. Michigan picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of Arizona vs. Michigan 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Michigan vs. Arizona, and which side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Michigan vs. Arizona spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.