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Texas vs. NC State odds, prediction, time: 2026 First Four picks from proven model

State

The Texas Longhorns battle the North Carolina State Wolfpack in a 2026 First Four matchup on Tuesday night. The winner will be the 11th seed and will face sixth-seeded BYU on Thursday. Texas is coming off a 76-66 loss to the Ole Miss Rebels in the SEC Tournament on Wednesday, while NC State dropped an 81-74 decision to Virginia on Thursday in the ACC Tournament. The Longhorns (18-14), who finished in 10th place in the SEC, have lost five of their last six games. The Wolfpack (20-13), who tied for seventh in the ACC, have lost five of six.

Tipoff from UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio, is set for 9:15 p.m. ET. After opening as a slight underdog, NC State is now a 1.5-point favorite in the latest Texas vs. NC State odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 158.5. Before making any NC State vs. Texas picks, check out the men’s college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following its college basketball betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has simulated Texas vs. NC State 10,000 times and just revealed its First Four picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several men’s college basketball odds and men’s college basketball betting lines for NC State vs. Texas:

Texas vs. NC State spread:    

NC State -1.5

Texas vs. NC State over/under:    

158.5 points

Texas vs. NC State money line:    

NC State -121, Texas +101

Texas vs. NC State picks:    

See picks at SportsLine

Texas vs. NC State TV:

truTV

Top Texas vs. NC State predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Texas vs. NC State, SportsLine’s model is going Over on the total (158.5 points). The Over hit in the last meeting between the teams. The Over has gone 7-3 in the last 10 Texas games, while the Over is 5-0 in the last five NC State games. Texas is 3-7 against the spread in its last 10 games. NC State, meanwhile, is 2-8 ATS in its last 10.

The model projects the Longhorns to have four players score 14.8 points or more, including Dailyn Swain, who is projected to score 17.7 points. The Wolfpack are projected to have five players score 10.5 points or more, led by Quadir Copeland, who is projected to score 15.1 points. The model is projecting 161 combined points as the Over clears in 54% of simulations. 

How to make NC State vs. Texas picks

The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Texas vs. NC State, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model that has simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.

Daniel Kohn
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