March Madness 2026 bracket: NCAA Tournament picks, predictions by top college basketball model

Basketball

Plenty of fans have already penciled in Houston to make the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament bracket 2026. The Coogs have six straight Sweet 16 appearances, the longest active streak and twice as long as the school with the next most. As for Elite 8 streaks, three schools have made the final eight in each of the last two years: Duke, Tennessee and Alabama. However, none of the four aforementioned schools have won a national title during their impressive streaks through the March Madness bracket.

Having several bites at the apple certainly increases the chances of winning it all but is no guarantee. However, having the experience of deep NCAA Tournament runs carries value and could be a factor in who advances in your 2026 March Madness picks. Before filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket 2026, be sure to see the 2026 March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91% of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn’s championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.

It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.

There’s no reason to rely on luck when there’s proven technology to help you dominate your 2026 March Madness picks. Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.

Top 2026 March Madness bracket picks (preview two matchups)

One of the Midwest Region picks from the model: No. 9 Saint Louis defeats No. 8 Georgia in the first round. The Billikens are in elite company when it comes to effective FG% on both ends of the court, which has enabled them to a 28-5 record. Saint Louis ranks second in the nation in defensive eFG% and third in offensive eFG%, making it just the fourth team since 2000 to rank among the top five in both. Saint Louis is also in the top five in Division I in both 3-point percentage (40.1%) and defending the 3-point line (29.4% allowed).

A balanced unit like that is the last thing a Georgia program that has struggled in March wants to see. The Dawgs haven’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 2002, which is the third-longest active drought among any power conference team. A lack of defense could keep this drought going, as the 79.2 ppg that Georgia allows this season is the fifth-most among the 68 March Madness teams.

Another surprise in the Midwest: the First Four winner of Miami (Ohio) vs. SMU knocks off 6-seed Tennessee in the first round. Tennessee is coming off back-to-back Elite Eight appearances for the first time in school history, but it has its worst NCAA Tournament seed since 2014. The Vols have played 59 games in the Big Dance but have never reached the Final Four.

They have lost four of their last six games and are just 4-11 when allowing at least 70 points in a game this season. This will be a tricky first-round matchup regardless of their opponent, as Miami (OH) averages the second-most points per game (90.7) in college basketball, while SMU is also in the top 25 at 84.2 points per game. One of those teams will generate some momentum in the First Four, so Tennessee will be facing a confident squad. You can see the model’s 2026 NCAA bracket picks here.

How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions

Who wins every tournament-defining matchup, and which region does the model project the No. 1 seed not making the Final Four, plus there being two double-digit seed stunners? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it’s calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.

So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket, and which NCAA Tournament double-digit seeds will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region is loaded with upsets, all from the model that’s beaten 91% of bracket players in four of the last seven tournaments.

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