Basketball
TV basketball pundits often talk about the importance of Quad 1 wins in earning an NCAA tournament berth.
But they don’t mention that Quad 1 wins are a moving target, creating three unlikely situations for Cal’s resume as it tries to get a berth in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2016.
—1. Cal lost by 22 points to Clemson on Saturday, yet the Bears added a Quad 1 win.
—2. Cal fans should root for archrival Stanford to win games the rest of the season, except for the Cardinal’s February 21 game at Cal.
—3, A Cal victory over a 13-11 Syracuse team on Wednesday could end up being a Quad 1 win.
First let’s define Quad 1 win. A Quad 1 win is any one of the three following results:
—A home victory over a team in the top 30 team of the NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) rankings.
—A neutral-court victory over a team in the top 50 of the NET rankings
—A road victory over any team in the top 75 of the NET rankings.
Cal had three Quad 1 wins going into Saturday’s game against Clemson and now the Bears have four Quad 1 wins despite the Bears’ 77-55 loss to the Tigers.
Cal already had Quad 1 wins over North Carolina (at home), UCLA (neutral court) and Miami (on the road). But they added Stanford as a Quad 1.
The Bears’ road victory over the Cardinal rates as a Quad 1 win because Stanford moved from 79th in the NET rankings as of Saturday morning to 69th as of Sunday morning, moving it into the top 75, thanks to its win over Wake Forest on Saturday.
Cal must hope Stanford stays in the top 75 so that its road win over the Cardinal remains a Quad 1 win.
North Carolina’s win over Duke helped Cal as well. The Tar Heels began Saturday 27th in the Net rankings, and if they had lost to Duke at home, they probably would not have dropped out of the top 30, but it might have been close.
But with its win North Carolina moved up to No. 24, placing it solidly in the top 30, making Cal’s home win over the Tar Heels a Quad 1 win – as long as North Carolina stays in the top 30.
So Cal must root for the Tar Heels as well.
Finally, Cal fans also should pay attention to the results of old Pac-12 rival UCLA.
The Bruins have won five of their last six games, including an upset of Purdue, and now have a NET ranking of 39, putting them within the top-50 range needed for them to represent a Quad 1 win for Cal, which beat UCLA at the Chase Center in San Francisco.
The NET ranking itself is also an important criterion for the tournament selection committee, and the Bears dropped from 55 to 59 with their loss to Clemson. Being 59th probably puts the Bears right on the threshold of inclusion in the NCAA tournament – i.e., a bubble team.
ESPN put Cal in the “Work to Do” category in its Sunday morning Bubble Watch, with this comment:
Recent wins over North Carolina, Stanford, Miami and Georgia Tech vaulted Cal into bubble territory, but Saturday’s loss to Clemson was likely a wake-up call. The Golden Bears surrendered a 23-1 run in the first half, and the Tigers never looked back. Cal still sits in the 40s on the résumé ranking, has three Quadrant 1 wins (including one Quadrant 1A) and faces the ACC’s second-easiest remaining schedule. It helps that fellow bubble team Virginia Tech lost Saturday, too. But with a consensus at-large probability below 30%, the Bears are tracking to be on the outside looking in.
ESPN did not add the fourth Quad 1 win, but its comment suggests Cal would not be in the NCAA tournament if the field were selected today. CBS Sports put Cal among its First Four Out on Sunday morning as well.
Some might assume that a win over Clemson would have meant a Quad 1 win for the Bears. Not so. Clemson began Saturday’s action No. 31 in the NET, and on Sunday rose only one spot to 30.
If Cal had defeated the Tigers, Clemson surely would have dropped out of the top 30, rendering a Bears home-court win over Clemson a Quad 2 victory.
But let’s get serious. Despite the Quad 1 numbers, a Cal win over Clemson obviously would have significantly improved Cal’s chances of making the NCAA tournament. Even though it would not have been a Quad 1 win, people on the selection committee would have been impressed by a Cal win over a nationally ranked Clemson team that is now tied for first place in the ACC.
And the subjective opinion of those 12 selection committee members matters a great deal.
In the meantime the numbers game continues.
As you can surmise, results across the country – and particularly in the ACC — affect Cal’s NET ranking as well its number of Quad 1 wins.
But here’s the bottom line:
As of Saturday morning, Cal was 3-5 in Quad 1 games, and as of Sunday morning the Bears were 4-5 in Quad 1 games after losing by 22 points.
And here is an added twist: A Cal road victory on Wednesday against Syracuse, which is 13-11 overall, 4-7 in the ACC and has lost six of its last seven games, might count as a Quad 1 win for the Bears despite the Orange’s mediocre record.
Syracuse is currently 68th in the NET rankings, and even if Cal beats the Orange, Syracuse might remain in the top 75. And a road win over a top-75 team is a Quad 1 win.
Of course, the Orange would have to remain in the top 75 the rest of the season for a Cal win in Syracuse to count as a Quad 1 win.
The target keeps moving.
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